Dingdongler

I'm not saying all UKIP votes are taken from the Tories, some will be taken from Labour and some from previous non voters. However I'd guess there is more from the Tories as compared to Labour etc. This may change in the future but that's how it is at present.

So you guys may not care about Milliband but the fact of the matter is UKIP will never get a majority at the next election.But they may very well be responsible for Milliband being PM and ***** being chancellor come May 2015.

I hope you are prepared for that.

Martin2005

Once again trotting out UKIP propaganda. Conveniently failing to mention that the impact will be most important in Tory marginals

warrenm2

Up north there are few Tory votes to take, its all coming from Labour, so it depends on which constituency.

No-one is claiming UKIP will be a majority next year. What is possible is that UKIP will be the king makers in a similar way the Lib Dems are now.

As to your Labour point, I covered that in the second para of my last response

Dingdongler

No you didn't. Your logic does not follow through. There is a significant possibility that by voting UKIP you will ensure that Labour gets into power and so you will get the exact opposite of what you want ie further European integration, more immigration, bigger government, more welfare spending and higher taxes.

You can pretend to ignore that if you wish

Dingdongler

Sorry, made a hash of that post!

warrenm2

Err yes I did. Heres a copy and paste of what I said

"But UKIP voters don't care about Milliband, they see the LibLabCon as one blob, the same thing with a different tie. "

UKIP voters see more immigration whichever of the legacy parties get control. Those parties all subscribe to the EU idea. Which EU flavour the voters get is of no concern to them. They want out. And before you start on the bit about Cameron offering a referendum, the second part of that para is

"They don't believe Cameron's promise, don't rate his chances of winning (he failed against Brown after all), and after all the broken pledges have nothing but contempt for him. There is no way in a million years they will return. The idea of voting for a party they dont believe in and hate to stop another party they don't believe in and hate is an anathema to them when they can show support for a party that DOES represent their values, a party that is growing strongly and will have representation in Westminster on Oct 10th"

The logic is simple, they vote for the party they believe in, there is no other calculation going on, no tricky playing of the FPTP system, just more and more people voting for UKIP. Which leads back to the momentum thing, success is encouraging more people to join up, we're in a virtuous circle phase at the moment, long may it continue!

The other point you are missing is that UKIP is clearly having an effect on UK politics without (currently) a single MP. In 2011 Cameron 3 line whipped his MPs into voting against an EU referendum. Then 2 years later he offers one - due to the UKIP effect. Without UKIP that would never have happened

Dingdongler

I agree that UKIP has had, to my mind anyway, a positive effect in terms of the debate on Europe and immigration.

The problem is though, despite all your momentum and 'virtuous cycle' you are made up of so many disparates. You just need to look at some of the UKIP fans on this website to see just how different their politics are. Your common binding strength is your hatred for Europe and the mainstream parties.

UKIP has become a party that is all things to all angry people.

When they all have to actually sit around a table and make coherent decisions the party will implode.

neil-h

Nail, head, done.

f1_fan

iTrader: (9)

All of which may be true, but what state are the other parties really in?

Labour are not worth talking about, unelectable!

Lib Dems are finished and will be partially wiped out in the election and rightly so.

That leaves the Tories who underneath the not so calm exterior are a party deeply divided over the EU and many other policies. I expect more defections to UKIP if UKIP actually win a by election and that will trigger a very serious debate deep within the core of the party.

UKIP may well have issues with their support base etc. etc. but against the other 3 parties many will view them as the lesser of four evils.

warrenm2

Hehe, now we are into opinion. You say its a problem, we say its a strength, a broad range of experience rather than a narrow out of touch clique..

Well that's kind of true, we do feel angry at being betrayed by politicians that we thought would stand up for us and our country, but turned out to be only interested in themselves and their party (and a nice bung from the EU)

Well since the policies have been launched at the conference and I have already given you the link to them, that appears to be incorrect doesn't it?

Turbohot

Cameron must have had a bad day, but Reckless was very very cagey about his move to his ex-party till the end, apparently. I have no respect for such people with this sort of dirty play. We know politics which is essentially full of opportunists isn't a clean game, but there's a limit to be that blatant with exhibiting that dirt, imo. It looks bleddy awful. Reckless looks like a loser- either way.

warrenm2

You think he should have announced it in advance and given a months notice? You're not going to survive that in todays Tories

Turbohot

No, this is not what I'm saying. What I am saying is that he should have raised his concerns and his differences in opinions with his then party, at least; rather than being an @rse licker to them till the last moment and backstabbing at that very moment! Then again, one had to have a strength of character to do so. The guy is a disgrace. Reckless coward and an opportunist. Not to be trusted by anyone. To Farage, he's just a pawn.

Dingdongler

No, I don't think you can say that it appears to be incorrect by any stretch. Just because there are some policies available on the internet means little, most prospective voters probably haven't even read them.

You have people supporting the party who are very left of centre and plenty who are to the right of the Tories, quite Thatcherite in fact.

All they agree on is Europe and immigration, whilst the spotlight stays on this issue then this common bond will keep them together.

As soon as the debate moves on to something else like taxes, welfare etc it will be game over.

It's going to be fun watching all these politically diverse people at each others throats.

Dingdongler

Agreed, he doesn't come off from this very well does he? I don't think his behaviour has gone down very well with his constituents, they very may well punish him for it.

warrenm2

Err he did, he even voted against his party on several occasions and was criticised for "not being a team player". This is the problem, the top of the Tory party wasn't listening, to its MPs or the voters, so he defected. Frankly to suggest he should do it any other way is being a bit naive. The Tory party has a very capable dirty tricks dept, briefing media with its spin. Giving notice is simply to open yourself up to attack. Better to present a fait accoplis

warrenm2

Going to bet on that? You'll get good odds as all the betting is on him to win....

Turbohot

Err I think a lot of the public would have preferred a bit louder and explicit objections from him; that's before he schemed his departure around the crucial time of party conferences. Then again, that would be expected by someone ethical. I'm aware how twisted and unethical the field of politics is. In my opinion he could have played the game much cleaner. By doing the way he has done, he simply looks like a Grade A loser, I'm afraid.

What did people think of Cameron's zzzzzitzzzz speech, btw? I thought that it was a 'fight-flight' response to all this going on. His missus didn't look much loved up either. She looked good, though. So here, I can see that the backstabber's resignation and ditch did have an effect, actually.

I certainly don't want to go to bed with fake-tanned Farage and wake up with whatshisname. Doesn't tempt me at all.

madscoob

iTrader: (3)

the new you tube cameron video is superb warning not for kids as contains swearing, and not for tory voters as the truth hurts don't it