UKIP on the march?
10 October 2014, 03:09 PM
#31
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I quite like Toby Young's comment in the Daily Telegraph
"UKIP isn't a normal political party on which message discipline can be imposed. It's a cocktail party at a golf club and if you start voicing 'progressive' opinions on subjects like gays, women's rights and immigration you'll soon find yourself with no one to talk to."
things are certainly going to get interesting - and complacency is never a good thing
"UKIP isn't a normal political party on which message discipline can be imposed. It's a cocktail party at a golf club and if you start voicing 'progressive' opinions on subjects like gays, women's rights and immigration you'll soon find yourself with no one to talk to."
things are certainly going to get interesting - and complacency is never a good thing
10 October 2014, 03:56 PM
#32
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This would be a good option, it would let the ar$ehole politicians see the average working man, whom they are actually supposed to be managing the country for have absolutely no faith in them.
10 October 2014, 04:01 PM
#34
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You can play all you like with voter turn out statistics but scraping by with a 600 majority in a mid term safe seat by election is a big thumbs down to Milliband.
I have no political axe to grind but all the serious political commentators are flagging this result up as more significant than a fairly right wing constituency heavily influenced by obvious local immigration issues (real or imagined) essentially pushing the boat a little further to the right
I have no political axe to grind but all the serious political commentators are flagging this result up as more significant than a fairly right wing constituency heavily influenced by obvious local immigration issues (real or imagined) essentially pushing the boat a little further to the right
10 October 2014, 04:08 PM
#35
I am not suggesting that UKIP has any affinity to the **** party, but to illustrate how quickly a country can reverse its politics , depending on global and internal changes .
In December 1924 the NSFM ( effectively the **** party) polled 3% of the vote in Germany , Gaining 32 seats.
During the Depression considerable support was given to the NSFM and as a result in 1930 the share of the vote to the **** party increased to 18% ( 107 seats)
The party gained momentum in 1932 and this time polled 37% (230 seats)
Within a year gained power with 44% (288 seats)
So within only 9 years a total change of politics and direction.
It is virtually impossible for UKIP to win a general election and form a government in 2015 , BUT if the UK continues with the like of Cameron and his Eaton toffs, or Milliband or god forbid Clegg leading this once great country , then history will repeat itself and a radically new party will be in government in 2020.
In December 1924 the NSFM ( effectively the **** party) polled 3% of the vote in Germany , Gaining 32 seats.
During the Depression considerable support was given to the NSFM and as a result in 1930 the share of the vote to the **** party increased to 18% ( 107 seats)
The party gained momentum in 1932 and this time polled 37% (230 seats)
Within a year gained power with 44% (288 seats)
So within only 9 years a total change of politics and direction.
It is virtually impossible for UKIP to win a general election and form a government in 2015 , BUT if the UK continues with the like of Cameron and his Eaton toffs, or Milliband or god forbid Clegg leading this once great country , then history will repeat itself and a radically new party will be in government in 2020.
10 October 2014, 04:16 PM
#38
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The swing from Labour to UKIP may have been 18% but wasn't the swing from Tories far greater?
If so then what Martin says is correct, there is a good chance that in some marginals Labour will win by the back door.
Don't get me wrong, I like alot of what Farage says, I just don't want to see Milliband and ***** in charge of the country
If so then what Martin says is correct, there is a good chance that in some marginals Labour will win by the back door.
Don't get me wrong, I like alot of what Farage says, I just don't want to see Milliband and ***** in charge of the country
In summary the story is a lot more complex with support coming from all over. UKIP polling also indicates that they are picking up votes from none of the above, there was a story from the Clacton office for example that is going in the UKIP newsletter soon of a 91 year old lady who phoned the office for assistance in getting to the polling station as she had never been out of the house for three years but wanted to go to vote for us.
UKIP is a grass roots thing which is why a lot of the traditional analysis mindset just cant cope. Ashcrofts poll was 17% out http://order-order.com/2014/10/10/as...-error-was-17/
10 October 2014, 04:24 PM
#39
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I am not suggesting that UKIP has any affinity to the **** party, but to illustrate how quickly a country can reverse its politics , depending on global and internal changes .
In December 1924 the NSFM ( effectively the **** party) polled 3% of the vote in Germany , Gaining 32 seats.
During the Depression considerable support was given to the NSFM and as a result in 1930 the share of the vote to the **** party increased to 18% ( 107 seats)
The party gained momentum in 1932 and this time polled 37% (230 seats)
Within a year gained power with 44% (288 seats)
So within only 9 years a total change of politics and direction.
It is virtually impossible for UKIP to win a general election and form a government in 2015 , BUT if the UK continues with the like of Cameron and his Eaton toffs, or Milliband or god forbid Clegg leading this once great country , then history will repeat itself and a radically new party will be in government in 2020.
In December 1924 the NSFM ( effectively the **** party) polled 3% of the vote in Germany , Gaining 32 seats.
During the Depression considerable support was given to the NSFM and as a result in 1930 the share of the vote to the **** party increased to 18% ( 107 seats)
The party gained momentum in 1932 and this time polled 37% (230 seats)
Within a year gained power with 44% (288 seats)
So within only 9 years a total change of politics and direction.
It is virtually impossible for UKIP to win a general election and form a government in 2015 , BUT if the UK continues with the like of Cameron and his Eaton toffs, or Milliband or god forbid Clegg leading this once great country , then history will repeat itself and a radically new party will be in government in 2020.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadia...election,_1993You're right that even UKIP people are not predicting to form a Gvmt next year, but we do think we can get enough seats to effect the balance of power in another hung parliament and so exert influence beyond our relatively smaller size
10 October 2014, 04:27 PM
#40
Perhaps this is a better example! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadia...election,_1993
You're right that even UKIP people are not predicting to form a Gvmt next year, but we do think we can get enough seats to effect the balance of power in another hung parliament and so exert influence beyond our relatively smaller size
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadia...election,_1993You're right that even UKIP people are not predicting to form a Gvmt next year, but we do think we can get enough seats to effect the balance of power in another hung parliament and so exert influence beyond our relatively smaller size
10 October 2014, 08:06 PM
#41
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i live in heywood and i voted ukip so did the rest off the family ukip shop in the town a ukip member at every polling station inthe burough something i aint seen since the 80s
10 October 2014, 08:48 PM
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10 October 2014, 09:21 PM
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10 October 2014, 11:31 PM
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Secondly, it's clear he's talking about the high number of activists from UKIP around, something he hasn't seen since the 80s. It's really not that hard.
Back on topic though, the Rochester campaign kicks off tomorrow, likely to be a harder and dirtier fight, the Tories have staked their reputation on it and so will do anything and everything to hold it. We shall see how it goes, they have yet to choose their candidate. Also the writ to set the date is to be moved on Monday (legal speak for kicking off the process of calling the by election), although may not be heard until up to Thursday, meaning the election date is going to be the 13th or 20th November depending how quickly it is heard.
Warrenm2, source of your UKIP inside info
10 October 2014, 11:34 PM
#51
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Just listening to Farage being interviewed on BBC - he's funny.
Presenter points out that UKIP have only ONE seat in parliament, Farage says 'yes, but we had none yesterday so I think we're doing quite well...'
Presenter then pushes him about 'a vote for UKIP would put Millipede in power' in the election, Farage replies 'nonsense, you'll be saying next that voting UKIP will give you Ebola...'
Interesting times politically.
Would be really funny if Cameron was ousted before the election and Boris installed as leader.
Would make for great tv debates between him and Farage, but then I feel the country would be (even more) fcuked up if one of them were in charge...
Presenter points out that UKIP have only ONE seat in parliament, Farage says 'yes, but we had none yesterday so I think we're doing quite well...'
Presenter then pushes him about 'a vote for UKIP would put Millipede in power' in the election, Farage replies 'nonsense, you'll be saying next that voting UKIP will give you Ebola...'
Interesting times politically.
Would be really funny if Cameron was ousted before the election and Boris installed as leader.
Would make for great tv debates between him and Farage, but then I feel the country would be (even more) fcuked up if one of them were in charge...
11 October 2014, 12:00 AM
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11 October 2014, 08:33 AM
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11 October 2014, 10:46 AM
#57
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Blimey, is it open day at the mad house or something? Firstly, it's "wasn't" not "won't"
Secondly, it's clear he's talking about the high number of activists from UKIP around, something he hasn't seen since the 80s. It's really not that hard.
Back on topic though, the Rochester campaign kicks off tomorrow, likely to be a harder and dirtier fight, the Tories have staked their reputation on it and so will do anything and everything to hold it. We shall see how it goes, they have yet to choose their candidate. Also the writ to set the date is to be moved on Monday (legal speak for kicking off the process of calling the by election), although may not be heard until up to Thursday, meaning the election date is going to be the 13th or 20th November depending how quickly it is heard.
Warrenm2, source of your UKIP inside info
Secondly, it's clear he's talking about the high number of activists from UKIP around, something he hasn't seen since the 80s. It's really not that hard.
Back on topic though, the Rochester campaign kicks off tomorrow, likely to be a harder and dirtier fight, the Tories have staked their reputation on it and so will do anything and everything to hold it. We shall see how it goes, they have yet to choose their candidate. Also the writ to set the date is to be moved on Monday (legal speak for kicking off the process of calling the by election), although may not be heard until up to Thursday, meaning the election date is going to be the 13th or 20th November depending how quickly it is heard.
Warrenm2, source of your UKIP inside info
I think it was actually the ukip who were going to throw everything at trying to win the seat
11 October 2014, 10:46 AM
#58
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“I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”
11 October 2014, 11:39 AM
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