RS_Matt

This?

http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/

Only Evening Standard seem to have them under 12%, Daily Mirror Poll has them at 17%.

Guardian had them at 7% a week ago, that's BS.

TNS (what ever that is) had UKIP at 19% 2 weeks ago.

thenewgalaxy

The majority of polls will be biased towards the audience.

I suspect the Guardian would not have too many UKIP supporters in its readership.

Martin2005

A poll commissioned by the Guardian isn't a poll if its readers

Martin2005

Go look at the current polls

hodgy0_2

I have also read commentary that it would make trading with countries outside the EU more expensive too

A sort of Loose , loose scenario

warrenm2

If you think we have "influence in Europe" now then you are deluded and ignorant of what is actually happening, the UK has been over-ruled 55 times http://businessforbritain.org/2014/0...e-eu-revealed/

As for making it more difficult/expensive, well that is what is happening now under EU law, we MUST follow a particular directive at whatever cost, outside the EU only those companies that want to trade in that particular market and find it profitable to do so will need to follow the rules. 80% of the UKs GDP is generated internally

Kwik

iTrader: (10)

Didn't Switzerland agree certain terms regarding trade whilst not being in the EU.

Martin2005

That would explain why most UK businesses want us to leave the EU...oh no hang on, I got that wrong, 80% want us to stay in!

They must all be 'deluded and ignorant' too

RS_Matt

Can't find a 12%

I did find this posted today showing a respectable 13.5 but with a dearth 3 seats predicted.

http://may2015.com/featured/election...rime-minister/

Martin2005

BBC Poll if polls

RS_Matt

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...ion/most-seats

UKIP 1000/1. Worth a £10? Owt can happen up to the 7th!

RS_Matt

I'll add it to the 1st post, I find it all very fascinating this time around.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/poll-tracker

markjmd

iTrader: (11)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Nelson_Sofres

hodgy0_2

Unfortunately we are not Switzerland , irrelevant really - whatever they do or don't do

And Switzerland is hardly a representative country

And simply quoting a figure - in this case 55, is simply meaningless without the context

neil-h

Is it not equally deluded/ignorant to presume that 55 over ruled actions means we have no influence?

RS_Matt

Thanks, I still haven't been able to find a poll to vote on outside the ones I've made.

Kwik

iTrader: (10)

OK . Why wouldn't we be able to negotiate our own terms in trade. Why are we different to Switzerland?. What do they have to offer that we do not?.

Kwik

iTrader: (10)

*cough*

hodgy0_2

We would be able to negotiate our own terms, no one is saying otherwise

The debate is on what terms and how favourable they would be

Norway is out side the EU but pays handsomely (billions) to trade within the EU - and is also bound by most its regulations, which it has zero say

Why are we different to Switzerland - is that a serious question?

markjmd

iTrader: (11)

Just for the sake of argument, let's say you were right and an exit from the EU did end up costing us financially, in the short or medium term at least. Would that alone be justification enough in your view to deny close to three successive generations* of voters the right to have a say on whether they want to be part of it?

(*a generation being the average age at which adults begin to have offspring at any given point in history )

hodgy0_2

firstly - I am not saying I am right

I did say "commentary", because tbh, I don't know - and in reality no one does (although plenty of people in the business community say the effect would be negative)

but to the point about denying etc etc, sure I have no real problem with a vote

my worry is all the FUD - that would be thrown about

and we see it continuously, not least on here

I can just hear people say "55 times that is outrageous", but without any contect it is meaningless

maybe 55 is good - maybe German/France get 100's (I doubt anyone bothers to find out before being "outraged")

here is a more balanced view

https://fullfact.org/europe/eu_counc...ruled_55-32228

I mean if I built a new motor racing circuit, and simply said "that Farage is a cvnt because it to him 2mins and 89 seconds to get round it"

it is a meaningless statement without knowing that either, the best Jenson Button could manage was 2mins and 97 second, or that Maureen from "driving school" did it in 1 min 30 seconds

not rocket science

so in short - the answer to your question is NO

Kwik

iTrader: (10)

100% serious. What do Switzerland have that we don't.
Norway may pay billions, but so do we. Do we pay more?. Do we get full value from being a member of the EU or can it be manipulated to suit us if we left like Norway and/or Switzerland?.

All genuine questions btw. A lot of people argue if we should stay or leave, rarely does anyone go into details of the consequences of either.

hodgy0_2

well apart from the obvious - i.e. Switzerland is a small landlocked country at the centre of Europe - that comprises mostly of French, German and Italian speakers and has historically traded with it European neighbours and for reasons that I am not totally aware of, managed to maintain strict neutrality - through two world wars.

and we sit outside Europe (geographically and culturally) and historically had an Empire with which we traded with, helped by (at times) the most powerful navy the word had seen.

here is a good essay on the Swiss miracle

http://www.lse.ac.uk/economichistory...issgetrich.pdf

and more info on here

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzer...nion_relations

but yes times move on, we do not have an empire, Europe forms a major trading partner (the biggest, I don't know)

and as my previous answer alludes to - I agree, lets have a opened reasoned debate

but whatever the pros and cons are - one thing is for sure it is simple fantasy that we could pull out and negotiate a simple trade agreement

my fear is that any debate would be contaminated by FUD (ear uncertainty and doubt)

a lot of heat - but not a lot of light

Martin2005

'FUD'??

hodgy0_2

whoops the F - got missed off

Fear Uncertainty Doubt - FUD

rely on peoples fears, create uncertainty (where often there is none) spread doubt

a tactic beloved of conspiritards and the like

Kwik

iTrader: (10)

Going by this, written 3 years ago, India look to be our largest trade partner for our exports...

http://www.theguardian.com/news/data...xports-imports

hodgy0_2

mmmm, are you sure about that

look at the individual countries that make the EU

Italy 15.2
Germany 17.2
France 14,3
Belgium 12.9

my maths is not great -- but that looks like it beats India

Miniman

iTrader: (2)

So Switzerland should be part of EU
And we should not.

I've read that right, yes? :-)

Kwik

iTrader: (10)

Of course, but I can't imagine these countries would just stop importing from us. It wouldn't be as shocking to lose indiviual EU countries as it would India, Russia or Australia.
Talking of Russia, how do they manage to export so much to us, France, Poland, Spain etc?.

We seem to import more from EU countries than we export, so are we reliant on the EU or are a lot of EU countries reliant on us?.
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statisti...ges/EuOTS.aspx

hodgy0_2

sure - nothing would STOP, the world will still turn

but things would change,

most people in business know this - and business by and large don't like change sure, but pretty much all the big hitters in the UK economy/business say the benefits outweigh the cost for the UK

from the CBI - pretty much as pro business as you can get

http://www.cbi.org.uk/campaigns/our-...utweigh-costs/

here is a link that set out the benefits in more detail

http://www.euromove.org.uk/index.php?id=15296

my point is - sure vote out, but make an informed choice, anyone who says the consequences of leaving the EU are trivial and the future on our own is paved with gold - is a dangerous charlatan


so fine - argue and vote on the "sovereignty" issue

but don't assume leaving the EU is a panacea to our economic problems - you would need to be pretty fvcking sure