LOTTERY........EVER WON??????
06 November 2002, 04:56 PM
#92
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I am going to take my time now the coffee is wearing off.
I was trying to get to the bottom of why merkin said this:
and MarkO said this
.
It is, it is, it is. Someone give me an explanation why it isn't, please....
I was trying to get to the bottom of why merkin said this:
2 in 14m is absolutely not the same as 1 in 7m!!!!
If, however, I buy 5 tickets with different numbers on, the odds are 5 in 14,000,000.
Now, most people think that the latter set of odds is equivalent to 1 in 2,800,000 - but it isn't.
Now, most people think that the latter set of odds is equivalent to 1 in 2,800,000 - but it isn't.
It is, it is, it is. Someone give me an explanation why it isn't, please....
06 November 2002, 05:03 PM
#93
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mr deference, i think this is a case of crossed wires, that we all ultimately agree on.
i.e. I (and possibly MarkO originally thought you were implying that you halve the odds every time you buy another ticket, clearly you know this is not the case.
i.e. I (and possibly MarkO originally thought you were implying that you halve the odds every time you buy another ticket, clearly you know this is not the case.
06 November 2002, 05:05 PM
#94
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Phew.
And to put this thread back on track...
I know someone who wife knows both the jackpot winners of one of the draws. The winners didn't know each other though.
What are the chances of that then?
And recently I had 3 lines, one with two ***** and the bonus, one with two ***** and another with two ***** and the bonus. All 7 drawn ***** across 3 lines and not a penny. Gutted. Given up now. Waste of money...
And to put this thread back on track...
I know someone who wife knows both the jackpot winners of one of the draws. The winners didn't know each other though.
What are the chances of that then?
And recently I had 3 lines, one with two ***** and the bonus, one with two ***** and another with two ***** and the bonus. All 7 drawn ***** across 3 lines and not a penny. Gutted. Given up now. Waste of money...
06 November 2002, 05:05 PM
#95
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It's quite simple. MarkO has it wrong. 2 in 14 million is the same as 1 in 7 million.
What's not the same is the odds of not winning (I explained this above). The odds of not winning are 13,999,999 in 14 million with 1 ticket, or 13,999,998 in 14 million with two tickets.
What's not the same is the odds of not winning (I explained this above). The odds of not winning are 13,999,999 in 14 million with 1 ticket, or 13,999,998 in 14 million with two tickets.
06 November 2002, 08:42 PM
#96
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What happens if you don't even not go out and forget not to decline the purchase of no ticket at all......and then not one of the numbers you didn't not decline to select doesn't not end up getting unselected?
Do you (not) get £10?
Guys......do you remember Mr Logic from Viz?
Do you (not) get £10?
Guys......do you remember Mr Logic from Viz?
06 November 2002, 09:09 PM
#97
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I won 2221 a couple of years back with 5 *****, the remaining ball on the card was 25 and I had 28, so near yet so far, also won my Golf GTI in 1988 (aged 18) so I have been fairly luck, if only god hadnt cursed me with this enormous *****......
06 November 2002, 09:19 PM
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OK then, the odds of the jackpot are pretty easy to work out
What about the odds on the 3, 4 and 5 number wins when you have multiple lines?
For example, if I chose:
10,11,12,13,14,15
10,11,12,13,14,16
is it better or worse than:
10,11,12,13,14,15
20,21,22,23,24,25
Always been puzzled by that one
What about the odds on the 3, 4 and 5 number wins when you have multiple lines?
For example, if I chose:
10,11,12,13,14,15
10,11,12,13,14,16
is it better or worse than:
10,11,12,13,14,15
20,21,22,23,24,25
Always been puzzled by that one
06 November 2002, 09:48 PM
#100
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I did quite a lot of analysis on the lottery when it first started, which is one of the reasons I don't play it, there didn't seem to be any obvious ways of making a quick buck 
A lot of people here seemed concerned about odds, which are relatively easy to calculate, but are difficult to interpret - hence (I think) MarkO's confusion over multiple tickets.
Far better to work with expected return per pound spent. This is very easy to work out for 3 number wins, 'cause the return is fixed (except for camelot's "get out of jail free" card
) but more tricky for the 4+ number wins as they are a function of the other competitors.
However, the return from 4 or 5 number wins is pretty pathetic. The most effort should be focussed on the 3 number wins and jackpot. Factoring the rollover is quite easy here as well. The most difficult bit is factoring in the "non-random" behaviour of the other players. Obviously you want to minimise the risk of hitting the same set of numbers as anyone else. My trick here is to choose three or four numbers distributed (at least one greater than 31) plus two three numbers in a row. Most people think that random numbers should be distributed evenly throughout the set, plus a lot of people will do runs of six numbers, but very few people use a run of two or three - check out the results, I'm pretty sure big payouts/rollovers occur more often when there is a number run than when there isn't.
Finally, Barnaby's question - I haven't done the maths, but I suspect the expected return on your two options would be almost identical. The most significant difference would be that your first option will result in you winning more rarely but in larger chunks, the second will result in you winning more often but smaller amounts. Less obviously, the second option will give a fractionally better return because on 4 or 5 figure wins your "double" win (if it happens) will reduce your winnings because you will effectively be increasing the number of winners, and therefore the dividing factor that Camelot apply, but this is a minute amount and really "in the noise".
A lot of people here seemed concerned about odds, which are relatively easy to calculate, but are difficult to interpret - hence (I think) MarkO's confusion over multiple tickets.
Far better to work with expected return per pound spent. This is very easy to work out for 3 number wins, 'cause the return is fixed (except for camelot's "get out of jail free" card
) but more tricky for the 4+ number wins as they are a function of the other competitors.However, the return from 4 or 5 number wins is pretty pathetic. The most effort should be focussed on the 3 number wins and jackpot. Factoring the rollover is quite easy here as well. The most difficult bit is factoring in the "non-random" behaviour of the other players. Obviously you want to minimise the risk of hitting the same set of numbers as anyone else. My trick here is to choose three or four numbers distributed (at least one greater than 31) plus two three numbers in a row. Most people think that random numbers should be distributed evenly throughout the set, plus a lot of people will do runs of six numbers, but very few people use a run of two or three - check out the results, I'm pretty sure big payouts/rollovers occur more often when there is a number run than when there isn't.
Finally, Barnaby's question - I haven't done the maths, but I suspect the expected return on your two options would be almost identical. The most significant difference would be that your first option will result in you winning more rarely but in larger chunks, the second will result in you winning more often but smaller amounts. Less obviously, the second option will give a fractionally better return because on 4 or 5 figure wins your "double" win (if it happens) will reduce your winnings because you will effectively be increasing the number of winners, and therefore the dividing factor that Camelot apply, but this is a minute amount and really "in the noise".
06 November 2002, 10:21 PM
#102
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No worries, always happy to help
Just re-reading my post and looking at the number of mistakes in it!!! I guess the grey cells don't work so well at 10pm - mind you they're even worse at 10am...
Just re-reading my post and looking at the number of mistakes in it!!! I guess the grey cells don't work so well at 10pm - mind you they're even worse at 10am...
07 November 2002, 07:07 AM
#103
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It's quite simple. MarkO has it wrong. 2 in 14 million is the same as 1 in 7 million.What's not the same is the odds of not winning (I explained this above). The odds of not winning are 13,999,999 in 14 million with 1 ticket, or 13,999,998 in 14 million with two tickets.
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