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Old 22 April 2003, 03:21 PM
  #31  
MarkO
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Quick question MarkO: have you made significant sums of money from property over the past 5 yrs?
Depends what you mean by 'significant sums'. Made a fair profit (50% in 3 years) on the house we sold last year, but we've never run a property portfolio.
I have I'm very pleased to say so perhaps my gut feelings will yet again turn out to be true.
Ah, of course. So you've made a packet on the back of a heavily rising market, which - of course - means you must be an expert property mogul.

Let's be honest, making money from property in the last 5 years isn't hard; in fact, you'd have to be an idiot to do anything other than make money. If you'd made a significant profit over the last 20-30 years, I'd be more impressed.

You heard it here first
No, plenty of people have been predicting a crash of varying degrees for the last 5 years, mainly because anyone with any sense knows that a 15% annual rise in the market is not sustainable long-term. But whilst I think the market has to cool down, I can't see any particular reason why there should be a huge crash.

Even if all the people who've jumped on the buy-to-let bandwagon in the last 3-4 years lose their bottle and sell up, it still won't fulfill the market requirement for property. There are an awfully large number of FTBs out there who simply can't afford property at the moment, so they'll soak up a good chunk of the 'excess' (since most Buy-to-let properties are suitable for FTBs).

But the fact of the matter is, there's a huge shortage in housing at the moment, which won't be satisfied any time soon. It's that, mostly, which will probably bolster the market and stop it collapsing. Simple market economics....

[Edited by MarkO - 4/22/2003 3:25:17 PM]
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Old 22 April 2003, 03:37 PM
  #32  
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I agree with MarkO. Theres still a huge shortage of first time buyer houses. Any movement out of Buy to Let will almost have the opposite affect and keep the market moving by freeing the bottom up which is where a large degree of stagantion is at the moment. With money so cheap there wont be a nationwide "crash".

People seem to get obsessed with the south east (i.e. London). The fact that so much property had risen so quickly will naturally mean any slow down will be seen there first and by more. The higher than average number of high value houses always seems to distort the figures - making extrapolations dangerous. Nationally prices still seem to be rising albeit at more sensible rates now.

Deano
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Old 22 April 2003, 03:43 PM
  #33  
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Hope you guys are right or it may turn out to be painful for lot of people.

As for any idiot making money from the property market I see you didn't manage it. I did.

Believe what you will when the prices drop assuming I still bother with this place I'll resurrect the thread.


edited to add: People are obsessed with the SE cos this is where all the money is. I freely admit I know little about the provincial market but as you are about 12 months behind the SE due to the ripple effect whatever happens here will surely affect elsewhere.

[Edited by basal_lobe - 4/22/2003 3:44:32 PM]
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Old 23 April 2003, 09:01 AM
  #34  
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As for any idiot making money from the property market I see you didn't manage it. I did.
LOL. You're just trolling now. You seem to have misunderstood me - the reason I didn't make shedloads of money from the property market is because I was doing other things and wasn't interested in running a property portfolio. Had I decided to get into property in a big way, I'd have made as much money as you did when I was down in the SE.

You seem pretty chuffed with yourself, and clearly think we'll all be impressed by the fact that you made a profit during a period where the market saw an average growth of more than 15% per annum. Well, good for you - I'm pleased for you too, but it doesn't make you an expert. So far you've not suggested a single reason why there should be a nationwide crash, or even offered any sensible explanation as to why prices are dropping in the SE....

People are obsessed with the SE cos this is where all the money is.
Really? Try comparing house prices in Kent to those in Edinburgh and the Scottish Borders - you'll realise that they're almost identical. Surrey/Hants are significantly more expensive, as is the centre of London, but there are plenty of areas in the UK that are as daftly priced as the rest of the SE...
I freely admit I know little about the provincial market
Then stop talking cobblers and attempting to predict stuff nationwide then. Sounds to me like you've never actually been outside the M25....
but as you are about 12 months behind the SE due to the ripple effect whatever happens here will surely affect elsewhere.
Not necessarily. A lot of the reason Surrey and London are seeing price falls is because they've also seen rises which were, frankly, absurd. The current adjustment is merely bringing them back into line with the rest of the UK, so it doesn't necessarily follow that the same pattern will be followed elsewhere. Price volativity has always been far greater in London/Surrey/Hants than anywhere else...
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Old 23 April 2003, 09:31 AM
  #35  
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If you want to pull apart my posts piece by piece and get involved in some kind of I justify this, you justify something else argument feel free. Nothing you have said makes any sense at all.

Yes I am smug about making pots of cash by doing nothing. Shame you spent your time doing something else or perhaps you would be considering early retirement rather than looking for a job-LOL

My feeling is that the prices are going to drop....its already happening in the SE, although you would probably deny that too,

As for all the money being in the SE I wasn't just talking property. The SE runs the rest of the country, we have all the money and those outside the SE just exist to service their paymasters down south.
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Old 23 April 2003, 09:39 AM
  #36  
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All,

I've been reading Scoobynet for a while and read through this thread with interest, I too live and work inside the M25 and have supplemented my income over the last 6 yrs by speculating on the property market - the vast returns have been more through luck than judgement I must admit, and I can see a marked stagnation and possibly a slight downturn in the market - but not the 20-30% dive as suggested by Basal Lobe...I suggest Basal lobe is being devils advocate and people should not respond anymore to his drivel - too many perfectly sensible threads are being hi-jacked by idiots.

Rgds,

S_T.
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Old 23 April 2003, 09:47 AM
  #37  
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ST an interesting point but on this occasion at least I'm actually trying to give my opinion honestly. I at least respect your position as someone who has profited from the market and as such will have closely monitored it over the past few yrs, however......


For those unable to research themselves here's a link that explains the state of the property market rather well I think.

Who do you choose to believe the Times and someone who has actually made money (not a dreamer like some people) or some no mark contractor who can't get a job?

quote marko scrounging (read grubbing around in the dirt):
"I'm trying to build my first 'proper' PC (I've previously only had notebooks). The fact that I've not been paid anything since early January means that I'm trying to do it for as little as possible"

Believe marko and maybe you could end up begging on a BBS too?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,587-605893,00.html

one article of many- incidentally price drops are around 10% on peak values in some areas of the SE



[Edited by basal_lobe - 4/23/2003 9:53:44 AM]
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Old 23 April 2003, 11:26 AM
  #38  
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Zzzzzz.

Basal, I know you're just trying to be deliberately inflammatory, but TBH I'm not really interested in getting into a personal slagging match. But a few points:

1. You know nothing about me, my financial or my work situation, so it's a bit foolish to make sweeping statements claiming stuff you know nothing about. Just 'cos I didn't make pots of cash in property, doesn't mean I'm short of money.

2. I don't take kindly to comments referring to me as a "no mark contractor who can't get a job". What, exactly, gives you the impression I'm looking for a job? More to the point, what gives you the impression I need to?

3. Just because I've asked for any PC cast-offs that people might have on this board doesn't mean that I'm brassic. Have you ever considered the fact that I might just like saving money - especially as I know a lot of people on this BBS have loads of old kit kicking around which they don't need/want. For example, I picked up a perfectly fine 17" monitor at the weekend, but am I stupid for getting it for free? If you want to pay for stuff that I can get for free, that's up to you. You've clearly got the ('pots of') money to burn....

4. I haven't denied that prices are going to drop (or are, indeed, dropping currently) in the SE. In fact, quite the contrary - I've explicitly referred to dropping prices in the SE in this thread. But you'll know that, since you'll have read what I wrote before getting all uppity and starting to slate me.

5. You're right about the SE running the rest of the country - they also pay more than their fair share for the rest of the country too. But having lived in Surrey/Hants for most of the last 30 years, and worked in London for the last 5, I can quite happily say that you're all welcome to it. Frankly, the SE is a dirty, unfriendly, over-priced, polluted, congested and generally unpleasant sh1thole. That's precisely the reason we left the SE and moved up here.

6. Your article from the Times is vaguely interesting, but the fact is that articles about house prices are ten-a-penny. For every article that shows prices are going to drop, I could produce 10 that claim they're going to rise. There was an article the other day which claimed that prices will double in the next 20 years - although in real terms (relative to the last 5 years) that's actually a market slow-down.

7. Your comment "Believe marko and maybe you could end up begging on a BBS too" is just pathetic. If that's the best attempt you can make to back up your prediction, then I hardly think people are likely to take your advice!

Tell you what. Why not try a bit of reasoned debate, rather than just boasting about money you've earnt and using insults and name-calling, and put some thought behind your argument - then people might respect your opinions and predictions a little more.
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Old 23 April 2003, 11:35 AM
  #39  
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anyone want to buy a house in Surrey?
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Old 23 April 2003, 11:43 AM
  #40  
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Nevermind Surrey, someone buy my house in Keynsham
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Old 23 April 2003, 11:43 AM
  #41  
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you sound desperate MarkO- you really are a funny guy.


Lets see why I believe you are a nomark scrounger (you admit yourself you like to get free old stuff rather than pay for decent new kit but hey what do you expect from a loser)

Try looking at the posts where you scrounge for kit, want a cheaper car etc etc. Face facts you couldn't hack life in the cut and thrust of the SE and now you have to live with that decision.

quote:"Frankly, the SE is a dirty, unfriendly, over-priced, polluted, congested and generally unpleasant sh1thole." - thats why you live in Scotland??? I mean what do you people have up there except haggis and rain? Life is better down here at the very least because we've got rid of useless **** like you.

MarkO said "Difference now is that when I'm working I'm getting shedloads less than I was in London. And even worse, when I'm not working, I'm not getting paid at all" - hahahaha my heart bleeds for you little man. Keep using your 56K modem and watching your secondhand junk monitor peasant.

As for insults your such an easy target I can't resist.

I don't care if people take my advice- in fact I like the idea of people on this BBS buying homes they will have large mortgages on. When the repos start I'll be there with ready cash buying houses for bobbins to fill with more asylum seeker benefit claimants.
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Old 23 April 2003, 11:45 AM
  #42  
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Basal_lobe is starting to sound suspiciously like the tommy Tank/mr evolution double act...

One of them boasted about making money on property and renting to asylum seekers too.

[Edited by Hmmm - 4/23/2003 11:46:10 AM]
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Old 23 April 2003, 11:49 AM
  #43  
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its not a boast just a statement of fact.

I do have one house currently rented out to asylum seekers in Kent, its very profitable and low risk as the council pay all the bills.

Even better it annoys the local residents who are quite frankly gutter trash scum.
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Old 23 April 2003, 11:57 AM
  #44  
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i dont think price rises/falls make too much difference if your in the chain, loose from one, gain on the other???

there definately werent enough houses for first time buyers, prices are too high. Majority of them have been bought by people as "an investment", renting them out.
Personally i think they are the cause of it all
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:10 PM
  #45  
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Thumbs up

Basal, you're right. I bow down to your superior intellect and your amazing ability to make money in a rising market.

As you say, I needed a cheaper car - hence the reason I sold my expensive 4-y-o STI and bought a brand new car to replace it. And obviously I'm poor, which is why I can afford to 'work' at home (read: dick about on my laptop for a couple of hours a day, and then go out on my mountain-bike).

And yes, I'll admit, I do prefer getting stuff for free than paying for it. Guess I'm pretty dumb - and should follow your lead, paying as much as possible for stuff.

You're right when you imply I couldn't stack up with the cut & thrust in the SE. That's the sole reason I left. I must admit, when I look out on the poor saps on holiday near my house, I envy them when they pack up and head back down to the relaxed, friendly SE that you live in.

I hate my life, and wish I could be a lucky^H^H^H^H^Hexpert property mogul like you are. Then I'd be satisfied with my life, and much happier overall. As you rightly point out, having (and more importantly, spending) as much money as possible is the only way to be happy and content in this world.

Gee, thanks for enlightening me to the error of my ways. I'll immediately pack up, move back down South, and get back into the enjoyable and relaxing lifestyle that is life in the SE.

Or perhaps not.
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:15 PM
  #46  
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Anal_Lube,
get out and collect some rent and stop ruining the threads with abuse. ...BTW I thought you said you drove an old and crappy Scoob because you liked the image. Therefore possibly others do the same, so stop commenting on what you assume you know regarding their circumstances..



[Edited by camk - 4/23/2003 12:16:30 PM]
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:17 PM
  #47  
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yawn

you can't even do sarcasm properly.

The fact you bothered replying indicates that the truth really does hurt.

Enjoy yourself in the land of temgesic, buckfast and heroin overdoses.

Are you a scotman btw? I didn't believe the stories about their monumental miserlyness until now.
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:19 PM
  #48  
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Don't rise to him, CamK. He's clearly just joshing with me - not even one of Tiggs' alter-egos would spout stuff as dumb as he does for real.
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:22 PM
  #49  
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you've already bitten MarkO

Also: what idiot goes on holiday to scotland???? The place features the most terrible weather and when it isn't raining has a biting "midge" problem that would have even the most impecunious scotsman hiding in his hovel.

Anyone with any sense travels to one of the "nice" places on the planet.
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:22 PM
  #50  
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Nae, I'm no'a Scotsman. Surrey born & bred.

And I'm only replying 'cos

a) It's more interesting than This Morning, which is on the telly right now.

b) I'm waiting for the Snooker coverage to start.

c) My cheap old laptop takes bloody ages to compile stuff (hence the need for a freebie development machine ).
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:28 PM
  #51  
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what a scrounger- take your hand out of your pocket and buy a PC they are cheap enough these days.

Whatever else could be said about me at least I don't scrounge of others for the tools of my trade. You really are a loser.
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:40 PM
  #52  
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Whatever. If people have got stuff from work (or even home) which is going in the skip, I'll happily take it off them if it's useful. Just 'cos you're too much of a snob to consider it, doesn't mean I should look a gift-horse in the mouth.

And if my current lifestyle and position makes me a loser, then I'm happy to be a loser.

You're the one getting worked up and slagging me off just 'cos I (and pretty much everyone else in this thread) don't agree with your prediction. I'm sensing some pent-up anger there - perhaps you should consider a holiday (to Scotland?).

BTW, you ever considered working for the Daily Mail?
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:49 PM
  #53  
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he couldn't do the Daily Mail job ...hates the City Types who work in his 'office' apparently....must be a bundle of laughs in there. Probably a Canary Warf Security Guard or the **** and sandwich guy. PMSL....

[Edited by camk - 4/23/2003 12:49:41 PM]
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:49 PM
  #54  
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I'm not worked up I'm just having a laugh- at you.

Some people like to go around picking other peoples rubbish out bins- you are one of them and you are welcome to it. Having the self respect to pay for my own things rather than scrounging like some beggar on the street doesn't make me a snob.

edited to add: the guy from germany said "or the **** and sandwich guy" I don't know what kind of office you work in but we don't have that setup here.

Further edited to add: If theres any copyright infringement going on it would be your weak adaption of the already poor quality ancient mary whitehouse experience crap that used to blight english tv.

[Edited by basal_lobe - 4/23/2003 12:52:40 PM]

[Edited by basal_lobe - 4/23/2003 12:54:59 PM]
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:51 PM
  #55  
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Lube,
surely copyright infringement ...see that guy that picks the rubbish out the bins, down by Canary Warf...thats your mate that is....
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:53 PM
  #56  
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It's not very environmentally friendly to buy new stuff when other people may have perfectly good stuff they no longer need. I'd say that's one of the reasons the SE is such a dump, too much over-consumption and waste.
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:58 PM
  #57  
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His office? Surely he doesn't have an office, as he'd have retired on all the money he's made from his property wheeling & dealing?
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Old 23 April 2003, 12:59 PM
  #58  
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thats right......I think you'll find marko does it cos he's too cheap and nasty to fork out for his own stuff however. He prefers to rely on the charity of others like the scrounging **** he is.


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Old 23 April 2003, 01:00 PM
  #59  
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we don't all work for the money marko- some of us enjoy our work.
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Old 23 April 2003, 01:03 PM
  #60  
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Question

Basal_lobe, does it really matter what the motive is? The end result is less waste and a better environment. If that comes from thrift, or from being a cheapskate, or from trying to make a diffence to the environment, does it make any difference?
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