LG John

No, we are covering 2/3rds hence 24 of the 37 numbers will make us profit on 'each' spin. This is 64.86%. This is the chance of us winning every individual spin and takes no account of history

ProperCharlie

surely 18/37 is playing black or red, not 2/3rds?

damn - beaten by a fuel surge moment

it's ok - no other motorists were involved.

imlach

Oops...ok...how do you cover 24 out of 37?

Sorry....must look at a board!

LG John

The european board has 36 numbers and one zero. The numbers are divided into 3 3rds of 12 no's each. There is 'outside' betting areas for each of the 3 thirds and also for red/black odd/even We are talking about placing a £5 bet on 2 of the three thirds thus a £10 stake overall.

imlach

Well, I'm £414 up in REAL money since I came home....how's the casino profit going?

LG John

You could cover all three thirds is you wanted but you'd gain nothing and lose everything if a zero came in

milo

bet on the first 2/3rds of the board

in other words:
1-12 <-- BET ON THIS
13-24 <-- BET ON THIS
25-36 <-- HOUSE GETS THIS
0 <-- HOUSE GETS THIS

in some boards (us ones) house gets 00 too.. but we're looking at european boards here.

as you can see, a HUGE run AGAINST you is a LOT less likely than a run in your favor, or a win in your favor intercepting the loss.

milo

why leave the house then? why not do it all day long?

imlach

..cos it's a sideline....

Last night I made £10

Tonight I've made £437 (it just went up)

imlach

The great thing about binary bets is that you can come out of them at any time.

If something has a 10% chance of happening, I buy it.
If it rises to, say, 30%, I can sell for 20pts profit.

Unlike horse racing, I don't have to wait for the end result (which is either 100% win or 0%).

So, you trade on probability, but don't have to wait for the RESULT of that probability.

LG John

Imlach as you know I've always been very impressed with your results and you do seem to make very good money but I also suspect despite your modesty claims you are actually very good at what you do and that most of the SN population could not reproduce your results!

I'm £30 up at poker - good enough for me

imlach

SB - there's nowt special about me.

I have no financial training.

As I've explained before, it's also sort of based on probabilities.

For instance, yesterday Greenspan made some comments on the strength of the US economy and the DOW went up 100pts in 20 minutes.

By the end of yesterday, the DOW was at a 2.5 year high. Now, highs such as this usually mean some intraday profit taking within the next few days sometimes (you have to watch and judge).

Sure enough, we've been up & down all day today, meaning there has been money to be made riding the troughs and waves (remember, with spread betting, you can make money when the markets go both up & down). All we need is movement to make money. If we're at an intraday high, we're quite likely to see a bit of profit taking.

Ditto, an intraday low, perhaps we might see some dead cat bouncing....

See....a bit of knowedge and judgement behind it, not just pure chance. You learn certain patterns over weeks/months/years (double tops, double bottoms, sawtooth rises/falls, etc etc)

All I can say is that if I can do it, ANYONE can.

LG John

How can you know THAT much lingo and not be an expert

LG John

Just came off the tables £60 up for the night (more than I earn in a day). Quite chuffed with that especially the quad 9's hand

imlach

Well done.
We are both happy

LG John

Woo-hoo - made it to £810 up Had a difficult time of it at points and at one point had to bet £270 each third to stay in so effectively I had a one spin one shot at 35% of losing Other than that I had a few £90 bets that saved me but mainly just runs against me of 2 or 3.

At one point I checked the record where it seemed like I'd been losing lots. The sequence went like this....l,l,l,w,l,w,l,l,w,l,l,l which is 9 losses out of 12 spins!! Assuming for straight up bets this would take a bankroll of £100 down to £25. Because I was recovering the losses it cost me nothing and quite possibly gained me a little (I forget exactly how I played that particular sequence).

What is perhaps a little concerning is right at the VERY end I went on a winning run of 15 wins in a row which I make as a 0.156% event Glad that rare an event was in my favour but it could have equally been against me! Now I'll have to test it again, then again, then again. And maybe even again

I also noticed a run of 8 reds at one point imagine trying to cover that 8th bet if you started with a fiver £5,£10,£20,£40,£80,£160,£320, £640!! ****!

imlach

Congratulations!

However, you did make it with virtual money.....
Would you have had the nerves of steel required when it is REAL money?

The psychology is a step up....

Oh, and lets see how many times you can do this in succession....

eClaire

Well done, but imlach does have a point!

milo

saxo.. what u have to remember is.. you're playing their "virtual" game. dare i suggest that maybe they "let" you win a lot on that game to encourage you to play for money.. and then it's rather more "fair" (in their favour)...

i am concerned about 9 losses in 12 tho.

you also have to bear in mind that you had a 35%+ chance of losing the lot... which means your current strategy isnt quite working. at that point you should have already made enough winnings to cover you for far more losses than that.

but well done all the same

LG John

Yes if I knew the system worked I could do it no problem In fact right at this moment I have £311 sitting in my poker account (started at £20 a week and a half ago). I do NOT regard that as my money yet - only when I draw it into my current account do I consider myself to have banked it and to be up. Right now it is poker money which I see differently. It also helps that I don't actually need the money - what I make from poker, etc is just bonus stuff as my current wages cover my current living standards (notwithstanding the scooby that won't sell!!)

Milo at the one point that I was 'all in' with the 2 x £270 bet I had made about £500 of profit. If the £270 bets were lost I'd have lost exactly £810 leaving me with £500. This is insufficient to cover the next bet required to get back to zero (which is a massive bet btw 3x£270x2 I think!). My options therefore are to take that money and quite while i'm a few hundred down on or to do 2x £250 bets which if it comes in would take me back above £810 and give me another shot at it. 9 losses out of 12 is not a problem as I demonstraited, its only a problem if they are in a row!! I'm more concerned about the 15 wins in a row as that is statistically a very unlikely event and yet it occured during my game!

I know what you mean about the 'virtual' game and I have given this some thought. Generally when you whap £1 bets on random numbers one of them seems to come in more than they perhaps should however, playing the system I was playing seemed to generate pretty normal results. It certainly seemed no different to when I've played for real and in fact I've never had a run of more than 3 against me when playing for real. Despite the time implication of doing it I might log each spin to see if its a winner or loser and then we can calculate a) how many spins it took me to complete the game and b) if it was anywhere near the 35/65 split. I find it unlikely the software can determine the playing system we are using and chuck up inaccurate results to encourage us. Its more likely to be designed to 'assist' random betters trying it out for the first time IMHO Lots more testing to be done

I know that the majority of you think this is a total waste of time but so far I've greatly enjoyed this thread, I've learned and relearned some maths and probability and I've been mentally stimulated - to date its not cost me a penny so where is the harm?

imlach

There is absolutely no harm in it, but you just cannot beat odds of 35/37 over time.

That is the single lesson you should learn from this thread. Until you understand that bit of simple maths, you continue to be blinded by your "system".

imlach

The one thing I learnt the hard way with spread betting, was to take your winnings while you can........

Leave them sitting, and you get drawn into bigger risks.

Take it out now, and start again at £20. Simple money management is key to remaining in positive territory. You're over 1000% up in a week. Take £250 out and keep it banked.

milo

it's a "lesson" that he already knows.

he's not trying to beat odds.. he's strategically placing his bets so that on the wins he's making MUCH more money than he's losing on the losses.

he'll NEVER get a result of 35/37 of his money back... he'll either lose everything and then some or will get however much he wants until he stops.

imlach

You cannot "strategically" place bets in a truly random game. It will come back and bite you.

You will lose. Period.

milo

sure you can. a "strategy" is to double up your bet after a loss for instance, enabling your next win to get you back in the black. how is that not strategic betting?

LG John

I see your point Imlach but poker is slightly different because I can't risk all that money at once unless I go on a higher stakes table - which I won't. On the £1/2 table you'd do really well to blow much more than £80 in a night and you'd need to a) have horrifically bad luck and b) go on tilt and make very wrong decisions.

I have often wondered: I don't know your financial circumstances but on the basis you have a house to live in and (from memory) a flat to rent I conclude that you are financially secure. You have talked in the past about how you have risked £300 and it has pulled in £4500 (massive increase) and you seem to have done this relatively regularly. On the basis you don't appear to NEED the £4500 to feed the family, cat, etc have you never considered risking £2500 on the next bet thus giving you a massive return if it comes in? A lot of peeps suggest for things like this that every time you double your roll you bank half the profit

imlach

Sorry for having to ask this, but I'm assuming both of you have been taught maths at some point in your lives?


If so, your teacher should be sacked.

imlach

Yes, I tried that, and learnt the lesson!

Believe me, take out that £250!

LG John

Imlach you say the edge of 5% for the casino can never be altered either way over time.

Ok, in this system we play red/black and we start with £5 on red (our colour always). If we win we put our stake and profits back on red and if we win again we do the same. We NEVER bank we just want to keep doubling up. If we lose we don't double up we just start with our original £5 bet again. What are the odds now - 100% in the casinos favour. We are playing a system that cannot win because we NEVER take advantage of when we win and we NEVER do anything to try and cover our losses. Even if we got 50 reds in row we'd still lose overtime. In fact, if we did get 50 reds in a row we'd hit the bet limit and therefore effectively would be forced to bank some profit but if we kept playing our system you can be sure we'd lose it all. Through playing a terrible system we have altered the odds to be mathematically 100% certain we will lose. Is it so hard to believe that maybe, just maybe, we can play a good system that will alter them enough to take away a 5% edge

imlach

Standard spread betting stretegy suggests never risking more than 1% of your capital in any one bet.

I've gone above this in the past, and sometimes regretted it. 2-3% at any one time is fine in certain circumstances....but any more than 10% and you're taking big risks.