Buzzer

I didn't *really* mean you Dave

Tidgy, Its something i've *got* to do. I'm gonna go with the 15%, did a bit more surfing last night. What you said in your last post is totally correct, however i dont have the luxury of forecasting only 6 months

r32

Right, been talking with our buyers ............. interesting.
Looks like a 65 pound a ton increase on steel from reversing mills around Jan 05 time with a 20 pound increase in steel from strip mills around feb time. Big problem is a total supply chain shortage. Shortage of ore, coke and vessels to move it all around in, including finished product.
We think that steel will continue to rise in price, not as quick or as much as this year, it should slow but could be around a 10% increase. Some mills in the US are creaking away at full capacity, they are old and struggling, new mills being built in China but that material is unlikely to find its way on to the world market. More likely to be used in their domestic market. Steel companies may hold back on creating new facilities but the shortage of raw material will still have an impact.

Hope this is of use?

Numptie

Buzzer,

What is it you're actually doing?

Estimating a project? / putting together a tender?

It's important to understand that before commenting on your assumptions.

In the case of the former, you might want to be either conservative or light depending on your economic agenda.

In the case of the latter, you'll likely want to be accurate - or indeed possibly qualify out your risk.

Cheers,

N

Buzzer

Numpt

It is the former. I asked the steel fabricators on their best guess but they wouldn't commit past January 05 so the 15% is the increase in the year from March (as i formerly described) to January 1st 2006.

I have the benefit of using alternative suppliers should my nominated supplier become greedy

In context, if the increase was to 16% in the year, i'd only be at risk for around £4,000. I could possibly stand the rise to 22% before my @rse is on the line

Numptie

Okay dokey .. then I concur with your 15%

Cheers,

N

Buzzer

So you'll insure that for me

Numptie

Of course.

If it goes to rat's, just PM me the bill

Cheers,

N