scoob_babe

I admit I topped the tank up today however we're doing SW Herts - Newcastle upon Tyne round trip this weekend.

pslewis

Like Petem95 says, it's already started!!

Been going for 24months in the South, steady, steady slowdown ........ once the increase gets to 0% (which is very soon) it goes into freefall!!

The housing stock is priced purely on confidence, shake that and its curtains!!

OK, I was expecting a quicker decline ...... but declining it is!!

And, as I say, once the figure reaches 0% the tables turn ...

Pete

dpb

a steady decline is not a crash....!!!

pslewis

So?? you agree with the great wizard pslewis then??

There IS going to be a CRASH??

Because 30% IS a BIG CRASH!!

I bet you wish you knew your **** from your elbow, don't you??

Pete

pslewis

Watch my lips

The increase has had monthly figures (adjusted to give an annual rate) like, 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1% ................

My point being when 0% is stated, which it will be soon, then it starts ......

-1%, -5%, -10%, -20% and it is self fuelling, like the big rises .....

I am easily old enough to remember 1989, I was trying to sell a house at that time ................ it was falling in value faster than the Agent could alter the price!! The value dropped 35% between 1989 and 1992 - I sold in 1994, but the price had remained stable for 18months and people were entering the market again ............ and prices started to rise.

One abiding memory I have of the 1989 collapse was the Builders and their adverts ............. "buy now, before prices rise again!" .... Free Stamp Duty .... Free Carpets .... part exchange deals ....

Guess what we are seeing builders do now?? Yes, thats right!! Look around, they can't sell houses!!

Pete

dpb

can you really see intrest rates climbing to 14% again.......

davegtt

what a pillock, dpb says its not exactly a crash is it.... and if it drops 30% (never said it will, I said at very best. personally I dont see anymore than 10% for my area) then it still owuldnt have fell lower than it was in 2001 so PSL predicted wrong long before todays market...

Lewis, if your memory is good to remember the, and I quote

Then surely you'll have enough brains to realise that the "buy now, before house prices rise again" quote is true, and theres so many people now waiting to get on the ladder, they'll be selling like hot cakes with any substantial drop, hence another rise right on que Not rocket science is it....

Like I say, you sit their with your fingers crossed. We'll just get on with our lives

pslewis

WTF did THAT come from!!

I am talking about whats happening NOW, which did happen in 1989.

We all know that rates will not hit 14% ................... but, remember this - they only have to go up 1% to result in an increase of 25% on peoples mortgage payments!!

We are at a FAR greater risk now from rates than ever we were in 1989 - the 'normal' rates were around 10% then!!

Pete

davegtt

LMAO. Ok what ever you say. I have a 90k morgage and a 1% rise is about £50 a month... Big deal... Maybe those with a stupidly priced house/morgage might get stung but thats their problem. The average joe doesnt get too much to worry about from 1% increase

SD

Not quite Pete. A 1% rise will increase the interest part of their repayment mortgage by 25%, but not the whole mortgage. The only people who's mortgages will go up by 25% will be those with interest only mortgages.

Simon

davegtt

exactly, and theres not many people with just Interest only morgages. But Mr Brainy Lewis knows all and is never wrong. No point trying to correct him

ChrisB

New batteries needed in your abacus Pete?

Henrik

iTrader: (5)

You do realise that a 30% drop wipes out almost a 50% rise?

Example:
Say something is 100k and it rises 50%. It would then be worth 150k. Now, knock 30% off of and it's worth 105k. To get back to the original price, it would take a 33.3% drop.


Also, you're conveniently ignoring sentiment. The reason people are prepared to take on stupid amounts of debt now (or were before) was that prices were rising, hence people felt that it didn't matter because it was a "good investment".

If prices are falling month on month, people will *not* see it as a good investment, and rightly so; why would anyone want to put lots of money into a depreciating asset?

I.e. sentiment will have changed, and the most important thing in peoples lives will no longer be to get on the property ladder.



You sit there and ignore what's happening in the real world and roll your eyes all you want The crash is happening, but you're just not aware of it yet. Sorry if that upsets you.

davegtt

lol.. you aint upsetting me at all like I say, 50k house is now 110k minimum now 4 years on.... 30% drop will leave you somewhere in the region of 75k yeah? still much higher than 4 years ago....

we've not seen a 50% rise in the last 4 years. the rise has been a hell of alot more than that.

And yes I'll agree some people bought with the idea of it being an investment. but theyre jsut greedy people. the average joe buys a house to live in it. any drop in prices to the point where ti becomes affordable and people will buy... Simple really.

Its a fact that buying a house is a very good investment. might get the downs but you'll definately get up's with it.

Anyhow I dont care, cause as they say "Im alright jack"

Leslie

I think PSL is running out of things to shout for attention about!

Les