Following On From The Motorway Protests ..
#31
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I admit I topped the tank up today however we're doing SW Herts - Newcastle upon Tyne round trip this weekend.
#32
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Originally Posted by Dracoro
This elusive house crash.
Been going for 24months in the South, steady, steady slowdown ........ once the increase gets to 0% (which is very soon) it goes into freefall!!
The housing stock is priced purely on confidence, shake that and its curtains!!
OK, I was expecting a quicker decline ...... but declining it is!!
And, as I say, once the figure reaches 0% the tables turn ...
Pete
#34
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Originally Posted by davegtt
30% drop at the very best Id estimate.
So?? you agree with the great wizard pslewis then??
There IS going to be a CRASH??
Because 30% IS a BIG CRASH!!
I bet you wish you knew your **** from your elbow, don't you??
Pete
#35
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Originally Posted by dpb
a steady decline is not a crash....!!!
The increase has had monthly figures (adjusted to give an annual rate) like, 5%, 4%, 3%, 2%, 1% ................
My point being when 0% is stated, which it will be soon, then it starts ......
-1%, -5%, -10%, -20% and it is self fuelling, like the big rises .....
I am easily old enough to remember 1989, I was trying to sell a house at that time ................ it was falling in value faster than the Agent could alter the price!! The value dropped 35% between 1989 and 1992 - I sold in 1994, but the price had remained stable for 18months and people were entering the market again ............ and prices started to rise.
One abiding memory I have of the 1989 collapse was the Builders and their adverts ............. "buy now, before prices rise again!" .... Free Stamp Duty .... Free Carpets .... part exchange deals ....
Guess what we are seeing builders do now?? Yes, thats right!! Look around, they can't sell houses!!
Pete
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what a pillock, dpb says its not exactly a crash is it.... and if it drops 30% (never said it will, I said at very best. personally I dont see anymore than 10% for my area) then it still owuldnt have fell lower than it was in 2001 so PSL predicted wrong long before todays market...
Lewis, if your memory is good to remember the, and I quote
Then surely you'll have enough brains to realise that the "buy now, before house prices rise again" quote is true, and theres so many people now waiting to get on the ladder, they'll be selling like hot cakes with any substantial drop, hence another rise right on que Not rocket science is it....
Like I say, you sit their with your fingers crossed. We'll just get on with our lives
Lewis, if your memory is good to remember the, and I quote
One abiding memory I have of the 1989 collapse was the Builders and their adverts ............. "buy now, before prices rise again!" .... Free Stamp Duty .... Free Carpets .... part exchange deals ....
Like I say, you sit their with your fingers crossed. We'll just get on with our lives
#38
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Originally Posted by dpb
can you really see intrest rates climbing to 14% again.......
I am talking about whats happening NOW, which did happen in 1989.
We all know that rates will not hit 14% ................... but, remember this - they only have to go up 1% to result in an increase of 25% on peoples mortgage payments!!
We are at a FAR greater risk now from rates than ever we were in 1989 - the 'normal' rates were around 10% then!!
Pete
#39
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LMAO. Ok what ever you say. I have a 90k morgage and a 1% rise is about £50 a month... Big deal... Maybe those with a stupidly priced house/morgage might get stung but thats their problem. The average joe doesnt get too much to worry about from 1% increase
#40
Originally Posted by pslewis
but, remember this - they only have to go up 1% to result in an increase of 25% on peoples mortgage payments!!
Pete
Pete
Not quite Pete. A 1% rise will increase the interest part of their repayment mortgage by 25%, but not the whole mortgage. The only people who's mortgages will go up by 25% will be those with interest only mortgages.
Simon
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Originally Posted by SD
Not quite Pete. A 1% rise will increase the interest part of their repayment mortgage by 25%, but not the whole mortgage. The only people who's mortgages will go up by 25% will be those with interest only mortgages.
Simon
Simon
#42
Originally Posted by SD
Not quite Pete. A 1% rise will increase the interest part of their repayment mortgage by 25%, but not the whole mortgage. The only people who's mortgages will go up by 25% will be those with interest only mortgages.
Simon
Simon
#43
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iTrader: (5)
Originally Posted by davegtt
Lovely graph, you got a microscope handy?
So you reckon we're gonna see a crash on the scale off say 60% of the current value being knocked off properties? cause thats what its gonna take at least in my area. 4 years ago the 2 bed semi I first bought was £50k no being sold anywhere between £110k-120k gonna take a mighty big tumble. remember theres that many people all waiting to get on the ladder now lets say theres a big massive crash... every sod will buy a house or 2.... eventually pushing prices back up again..... swings and round abouts mate.
30% drop at the very best Id estimate.
So you reckon we're gonna see a crash on the scale off say 60% of the current value being knocked off properties? cause thats what its gonna take at least in my area. 4 years ago the 2 bed semi I first bought was £50k no being sold anywhere between £110k-120k gonna take a mighty big tumble. remember theres that many people all waiting to get on the ladder now lets say theres a big massive crash... every sod will buy a house or 2.... eventually pushing prices back up again..... swings and round abouts mate.
30% drop at the very best Id estimate.
Example:
Say something is 100k and it rises 50%. It would then be worth 150k. Now, knock 30% off of and it's worth 105k. To get back to the original price, it would take a 33.3% drop.
Also, you're conveniently ignoring sentiment. The reason people are prepared to take on stupid amounts of debt now (or were before) was that prices were rising, hence people felt that it didn't matter because it was a "good investment".
If prices are falling month on month, people will *not* see it as a good investment, and rightly so; why would anyone want to put lots of money into a depreciating asset?
I.e. sentiment will have changed, and the most important thing in peoples lives will no longer be to get on the property ladder.
Originally Posted by davegtt
you sit there with your fingers crossed
#44
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lol.. you aint upsetting me at all like I say, 50k house is now 110k minimum now 4 years on.... 30% drop will leave you somewhere in the region of 75k yeah? still much higher than 4 years ago....
we've not seen a 50% rise in the last 4 years. the rise has been a hell of alot more than that.
And yes I'll agree some people bought with the idea of it being an investment. but theyre jsut greedy people. the average joe buys a house to live in it. any drop in prices to the point where ti becomes affordable and people will buy... Simple really.
Its a fact that buying a house is a very good investment. might get the downs but you'll definately get up's with it.
Anyhow I dont care, cause as they say "Im alright jack"
we've not seen a 50% rise in the last 4 years. the rise has been a hell of alot more than that.
And yes I'll agree some people bought with the idea of it being an investment. but theyre jsut greedy people. the average joe buys a house to live in it. any drop in prices to the point where ti becomes affordable and people will buy... Simple really.
Its a fact that buying a house is a very good investment. might get the downs but you'll definately get up's with it.
Anyhow I dont care, cause as they say "Im alright jack"
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