Charles aka Charlie

Or have a look here http://www.houseprices.co.uk/ No need to register for this one, to have a look at individual prices.

davegtt

lol.. yeah OK then... nowhere have I once said I expect big increase, infact I dont expect an increase at all. we were probably at peak near on a year ago IMO..... I just honestly dont see a big crash [b]YET[b/] People have been spouting crashes for a long time, Ive been listening to it all for a long time, we might see some drops over the nation but I honestly dont see a crash as yet. Thats all Im saying, yet youve got the inability too see past what Im saying and presume everything Im saying is in opposition to your view believing its moving the other direction when I know full well it isnt.

NOT THAT I CARE ANYHOW!!!!!

TruthHurts

So you believe you are at a peak? What comes after a peak? A trough perhaps? Take 20% away from the prices some people are paying for crappy houses in NW England as an example and you have 60K's worth of negative equity. Some of these saps are earning less than 40K a year. Work out if they can afford a drop like that.
The crash is already in progress, try taking the long view rather than following the short termism of the poor ******* who've bought property in the last 2yrs or so and expect to see their 'investment' appreciating.

The smart money is renting at the moment, particularly in areas where mortgage repayments are far in excess of rental values.

I'd advise anyone wanting to contribute to this thread to try and think outside their own circumstances in order to actually understand what's going on. On the other hand maybe ignorance is bliss. Personally I wouldn't know

Petem95

Exactly as TopBanana says, this is exactly the sort of article that was constantly being printed last time around - and looks like we'll see the same again throughout this crash (which started end of summer 2004 and will probably continue for another 3-5years)

Look out for lots more "the worst of the falls are over" "house market has turned a corner" articles in the next few years

Just look at the land registry house price figures (the most accurate one, and with no vested interest) - that will answer anyones "house prices arent falling are they?" questions

InvisibleMan

so doesnt anyone live in homes these days or does everyone merely reside in faceless buildings for profit? Doesnt anyone move because its the right time for them & their family (need a change/new job/new location) rather than 'lets move *right* now cos we'll make a huge killing'...
ok youve got to be a little sensible & cautious but people seem very **** about it. Its all like that eternal wait you do when youre investigating a new pc 'i'll just wait abit till....' i want a pc right now....

MattN

profit is profit. If I buy a house a house for 50k and sell for a 100k I've made 50k. Simple as.

Deep Singh

Agree. Prices are going to come down a long way but will take at least 1 year. Lots of people will be in negative equity, plenty of repos. It will probably last for years. Personally I can't wait so I can buy repo'd property at knock down prices, thereby sorting out my pension and hopefully getting a repo'd property abroad to retire to. Roll on the recession!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TruthHurts

I can see it being more like a slow bleeding to death rather than the sudden crash we saw driven by high interest rates in the 80/90's.
It's already happening in the economic powerhouse of the country and will spread out to areas where people are less able to afford losses totalling 100's of thousands over the long term.
Of course most people can't see it yet. Wait till it's time to move folks then the "truth will hurt" to coin a phrase.

Ted Maul

Yawn..

anyone who looks at the historical data to come up with the future prediction is in for a shock...

if you are not highly leveraged then you wish for a recession (nice people eh??)

if you are highly leveraged then you claim that there will be no crash because you don't want to look like a fool as you bought near the possible peak.

I need prices to rise so I can borrow more on equity to fund a new X5....

TruthHurts

lol@Ted some truth in there. Don't agree with your view on history though, it has a habit of repeating itself...............

As for your notional X5, it's about to become obsolete.

+Doc+

Thats fine if you have more than one house
Whatever happens I feel sorry for the people getting on the property ladder, if there was ever an ideal time to buy I think I caught it spot on.

Dracoro

profit minus the tax and associated selling costs.

£500 solicitor
£20k tax if 2nd property (cap gains at 40%)
say another £500 in other costs minumum.

So that's £28k profit out of your £50k rise in value.

davegtt

LMFAO... you really are stuck up aint ya? OK. so a 20% drop = 60k in the NW in a crappy house does it? OK.... so that means we're talking about a 300k crappy house in the NW that'll buy you a hell of alot. nice to call them saps when you know nothing about them. ohh big deal if theyre on 40k a year... does it matter? who cares what it drops!!!!! aslong as they can afford the payments on the property then what does it matter. a house is bought to live in, in most cases.....

Wish I could afford a "crappy" 300k house.

robski

"Take 20% away from the prices some people are paying for crappy houses in NW England as an example and you have 60K's worth of negative equity. Some of these saps are earning less than 40K a year. Work out if they can afford a drop like that."

Of course this is only an issue if they need to move or lose their job.

The current level of house prices is a high multiple of average earnings so house prices really cannot move upwards. What seems to be happening round my way (rather than this much talked about but no evidence crash) is that realism is rearing its head. People aren't adding 10K to the price of the house just sold down the road when they put theirs on the market.

There are no houses for sale near me, yet prices have been unchanged for a year or so give or take 1-2% either way.

Loads of other factors influence house sales as well as prices, some people don't want to move regularly so will move when the markets strong as its easier to sell, when the markets have downturns chains etc can take AGES longer to setup and complete. So Joe Average moves when the market is high as the soaring prices make people desperate to jump onto the ship which makes selling easy

What also seems to happen is that London leads the way due to loads of factors, but it seems to have a higher ratio, the houses seem to go up by much higher percentages faster, then drop quicker than elsewhere. Its almost like the effect gets watered down as you get further away which makes sense since its often economic factors that influences the demand in London in the first place.

The economy as it stands isn't in the right place for a property market crash. Record employment, low (based on last 40 years) interest rates. Sure if the economy takes a downturn then thats when things may change but there is nothing that should cause a significant drop in the current climate.

Its funny how the doom merchants always appear at the slightest sign of a drop but disappear 6 months later when it hasn't happened. Gets them some quick fame as they go on to report on the imminent price crash I guess.

Ah and the rates revaluation will seek to re-assess the bands. The total amount of revenue collected will not change as a result of this process (normal increases im sure will happen though), all that will happen is that the proportion of houses in each band may change, so the amount payable by a D property may go up or down, and the factor applied to that amount when over or under the D will stay the same. Extensions etc are not taken into account until a revaluation, so I would guess you would expect the numbers in each band to increase, and therfore the D council tax price to drop.

TruthHurts

In case you missed it the price crash is already underway in the SE, rendering your post above largely irrelevent.

robski

show us some figures then. i.e. PROVE IT

Oh and btw in case you didn't realise the world doesnt revolve around the SE.

I don't see any evidence of this crash, just people getting a bit more realistic and accepting a sensible value rather than expecting to get loads more than the bloke down the road.

Guess it depends on your view of crash as well. Sure if your looking at the bloke who overvalues his house by 25% and then has to cut it by 25% to sell you have one hell of a crash.

Only houses actually sold really make any sense not those on the market that aren't selling.

Everything I see about house prices leads to an expectation of limited or no growth (best case) to a 5%ish reduction over the next few years, hardly a crash by my book.

As I said there is no economic background for a house price crash to actually happen, just a soft realignment where prices are abnormally out of line.

And anyway only if people really HAVE to sell does any form of gain or loss actually matter, with record IN employment figures not that many really HAVE to move do they....

TruthHurts

Go and look at the figures linked to here and look at the data provided by NUMEROUS other sources. You can use GOOGLE for this.

As for people not having to move that's really one of the stupidest comments yet on this thread. Try these for size- family growth, relocation, retirement etc etc etc...........

Some people were predicting the huge price rises would never end, what now?

TruthHurts

Just in case anyone is too thick or lazy to bother doing their own research here's a few figures for you. FT House Price Index MA

August 2005 £190,833 190.9 (0.1) 3.0
July 2005 £190,997 191.0 (0.4) 4.3
June 2005 £191,752 191.8 (0.2) 5.8
May 2005 £192,066 192.1 (0.7) 6.7
April 2005 £193,340 193.4 (0.1) 9.0
March 2005 £193,440 193.5 (0.1) 10.4
Feb 2005 £193,588 193.6 0.8 12.2

Showing a 3% downturn in the year so far across the country. Bear in mind inflationary growth and market stagnation in some areas yet to catch up with the SE are diluting the ripples eminating from where all the money really is..........

davegtt

LOL... he asked you to prove it, not to tell him where he might find the info to back your claims up....

Family growth and job loss maybe the the only reason for having to sell..... family growth is the hardest to put up an argument against but people can survive, never heard of bunk beds? job loss or retirement usually mean downsizing anyhow.... and anyone who reitres with property in negative equity is a bit silly dont you think? how'd they plan on paying the morgage? unless off course theyve just own the lottery relocation. thats a choice is it not? if it doesnt turn out financially rewarding to move because your in negative equity then you stay where you are!!!!

Interest rates are the only thing that will give you all your repos you scavengers are waiting for, in which case unless you have a chunk off cash sat in the bank and well off anyhow you'll pay for it via the interest rates yourself....

Swings and roundabouts

Hanslow

Guess it's like cars, they're only worth as much as someone is prepared to pay for them. If people aren't buying, they can only go down in order to sell.

Wish I was a sap on 40k We live quite comfortably but the income raise would be nice

robski

I guess you are the stupid one as MOST people dont HAVE to move, its an option for MOST people. I've seen 5 bed houses with 2 people in, and 3 beds with 10 in. So are you saying that you need 1 bed per person or what? Join the real world, some people dont earn enough to have as many bedrooms as they need, others can have many more than they need.

Retirement, dont have to sell you house the day you retire do you? Anyone with some sense plans ahead for retirement and doesn't hit retirement day and go "oo we need to move now".

Relocation - sure some will move, but then housing is another factor you take into account, when I considered the SE 18 months ago I wrote it off as an absurd move, the standard of living I could have had there was lower despite a 50% pay rise so why bother? Unless a company is funding your move you look at the numbers and decide if it makes sense, if a crash affected the whole country equally it wouldnt matter anyway would it.

I still stand by the fact that MOST people don't HAVE to move, they make a lifestyle choice. Go back 50 years and very very few people would have had their own bedroom, yet now we seem to need more and more hence bigger houses, why? Its choice not necessity. Pre latest boom a lot of people didn't move for a long time, and most people could do this all over again.

"Some people were predicting the huge price rises would never end, what now?" - idiots. Anyone with half a brain cell would understand the link between house price and the ability of those joining the market to allow everyone else to move up. More than anything house prices are linked to Interest rates as they affect the abilty to afford the repayments, assuming all other things equal. If you have priced first time buyers out of the market you aint got a market.

Last post anyway. Loo forward to the looming crash

Dream Weaver

As long as your happy Hanslow, thats the key.

I enjoy being a "sap" and living in my "crappy" house in the NW, rather that than being an arrogant "property buying" ******** from the SE

TruthHurts

The figures are above the pile of tosh you just posted dumbass.

If you lose your job and you can't sell you get REPO'D dumbass

If you retire you can't sell and realise your 'profit' dumbass

If you want to live in an overcrowded house infested with stinking puking kids then you're a dumbass, dumbass.

We aren't talking about anyone's position either DUMBASS, you haven't got it yet have you? This is a discussion about the market as a whole, dumbass.

If you do want to about people's individual circumstances then you can put me in the 'large amount of money in the bank waiting for it all to crash camp'. Apart from the fact I have no intention of reinvesting in the UK. Oh I nearly forgot, dumbass.

Oh and dreamweaver I'm from the NW myself.

Hanslow

LOL @ DW We're happy thankyou now that we are more in the countryside and out of suburbia. Nice walks on the doorstep and neighbours that are friendly and welcoming. We were just lucky that the house we bought wasn't snapped up as a weekend / summer retreat as we would actually like to live in it full time....but that's another story

TruthHurts

The single bit of reality in your post. First time buyers are priced out of the market. It is now cheaper for them to rent and that's exactly what they are doing.

davegtt

lol.. nicely constructed post there... but your figures dont exactly prove much do they DUMBASS

Not once have I constructed a post around "just" my area or "my" circumstances.... DUMBASS

its great this name calling aint it, I feel really big

Right, lose your job you have to sell your house do you? cant get another job eh? cant live on the misses wage for a short while? cant live on savings eh? cant claim on that morgage repayment insurance eh? (which ALOT of people have been taking out while going for excessive morgages, not myself personally but I do know its been a common trend recently)

Like I say, you sit there and be smug that youve got something better than a 300k crappy house and better than the saps earning just 40k

friggin half wit

Dream Weaver

Where abouts?

Flatcapdriver

Its as much about a lack of confidence in the market as anything else. First time buyers could easily get on the property ladder if they utilised interest only mortgages.

Deep Singh

If you guys think there are doom merchants on this thread /bbs try www.housepricecrash.co.uk. The guys there are bonkers!!!!!!!!!! People selling their houses and buying gold coins because they think the whole banking system is going to collapse. They then bury them in secret locations!! Its really worth having a look at this site just for a laugh

davegtt

yeah but then they have to save £200+ a month for the next 25 years ontop of their morgage payment to be able to own their home at the end of it all

Arnt we doing anything up to 50year morgages now anyhow? Surely the AVERAGE FTB (being early 20's?) should be able to look at this, reducing their morgage payments by nearly half....