Louis Theroux: Gambling in Las Vegas
05 February 2007, 11:53 PM
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06 February 2007, 12:01 AM
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Peter, to prove it from the link you quoted how about this part at the bottom of the page
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability in the Real World
"What would happen if you bought 7 million tickets?
If you picked a different combination of six numbers for each of those 7 million tickets, you'd have 7 million of the possible winning combinations and the numerator of your probability fraction would therefore be 7 million. Given the second lottery, with a sample space of 14 million possible combinations, the probability of winning the lottery is 7 million/14 million, a probability of 50%.
Thus you can see that the more tickets you buy, the better your chances of winning the lottery. However, you need to buy lots and lots of tickets before the number of tickets you hold really makes a difference. Even if you buy 100 tickets (which might cost you $100), your chances of winning would still only be 100/14 million - not even close to a 1% chance."
so i you bought 7 million you would have a 7,000,000/14,000,000 chance or reducing that down 1/2 or half . 50%
I think the part you are having problems with is the reducing down... i.e 1/2 is the same as 2/4 or 4/8 etc..
The introduction to Probability page that links from the page you mention states this
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability
"Since 4/10 reduces to 2/5, the probability of drawing a red marble where all outcomes are equally likely is 2/5. Expressed as a decimal, 4/10 = .4; as a percent, 4/10 = 40/100 = 40%"
So there you go proof from your own sources..
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability in the Real World
"What would happen if you bought 7 million tickets?
If you picked a different combination of six numbers for each of those 7 million tickets, you'd have 7 million of the possible winning combinations and the numerator of your probability fraction would therefore be 7 million. Given the second lottery, with a sample space of 14 million possible combinations, the probability of winning the lottery is 7 million/14 million, a probability of 50%.
Thus you can see that the more tickets you buy, the better your chances of winning the lottery. However, you need to buy lots and lots of tickets before the number of tickets you hold really makes a difference. Even if you buy 100 tickets (which might cost you $100), your chances of winning would still only be 100/14 million - not even close to a 1% chance."
so i you bought 7 million you would have a 7,000,000/14,000,000 chance or reducing that down 1/2 or half . 50%
I think the part you are having problems with is the reducing down... i.e 1/2 is the same as 2/4 or 4/8 etc..
The introduction to Probability page that links from the page you mention states this
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability
"Since 4/10 reduces to 2/5, the probability of drawing a red marble where all outcomes are equally likely is 2/5. Expressed as a decimal, 4/10 = .4; as a percent, 4/10 = 40/100 = 40%"
So there you go proof from your own sources..
Last edited by THORPEM; 06 February 2007 at 12:03 AM.
06 February 2007, 12:09 AM
#93
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If a bat and a ball are worth £1.10 and the bat is £1.00 more than the ball, how much is the ball worth?
You'd be suprised how many people get that wrong when it's not written down... try it..
You'd be suprised how many people get that wrong when it's not written down... try it..
06 February 2007, 07:41 AM
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06 February 2007, 09:12 AM
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Peter, to prove it from the link you quoted how about this part at the bottom of the page
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability in the Real World
"What would happen if you bought 7 million tickets?
If you picked a different combination of six numbers for each of those 7 million tickets, you'd have 7 million of the possible winning combinations and the numerator of your probability fraction would therefore be 7 million. Given the second lottery, with a sample space of 14 million possible combinations, the probability of winning the lottery is 7 million/14 million, a probability of 50%.
Thus you can see that the more tickets you buy, the better your chances of winning the lottery. However, you need to buy lots and lots of tickets before the number of tickets you hold really makes a difference. Even if you buy 100 tickets (which might cost you $100), your chances of winning would still only be 100/14 million - not even close to a 1% chance."
so i you bought 7 million you would have a 7,000,000/14,000,000 chance or reducing that down 1/2 or half . 50%
I think the part you are having problems with is the reducing down... i.e 1/2 is the same as 2/4 or 4/8 etc..
The introduction to Probability page that links from the page you mention states this
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability
"Since 4/10 reduces to 2/5, the probability of drawing a red marble where all outcomes are equally likely is 2/5. Expressed as a decimal, 4/10 = .4; as a percent, 4/10 = 40/100 = 40%"
So there you go proof from your own sources..
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability in the Real World
"What would happen if you bought 7 million tickets?
If you picked a different combination of six numbers for each of those 7 million tickets, you'd have 7 million of the possible winning combinations and the numerator of your probability fraction would therefore be 7 million. Given the second lottery, with a sample space of 14 million possible combinations, the probability of winning the lottery is 7 million/14 million, a probability of 50%.
Thus you can see that the more tickets you buy, the better your chances of winning the lottery. However, you need to buy lots and lots of tickets before the number of tickets you hold really makes a difference. Even if you buy 100 tickets (which might cost you $100), your chances of winning would still only be 100/14 million - not even close to a 1% chance."
so i you bought 7 million you would have a 7,000,000/14,000,000 chance or reducing that down 1/2 or half . 50%
I think the part you are having problems with is the reducing down... i.e 1/2 is the same as 2/4 or 4/8 etc..
The introduction to Probability page that links from the page you mention states this
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability
"Since 4/10 reduces to 2/5, the probability of drawing a red marble where all outcomes are equally likely is 2/5. Expressed as a decimal, 4/10 = .4; as a percent, 4/10 = 40/100 = 40%"
So there you go proof from your own sources..
What I really struggle with is that fact that buying just 2 tickets in the national lottery reduces your odds by half.
My world is in tatters.
I'm going to lie down.
I am man enough to readily admit I was wrong.
Although my search will go on to formulate some equation that will give the true odds, and probably win the nobel prize. Or something.
06 February 2007, 09:16 AM
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06 February 2007, 09:20 AM
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Peter, to prove it from the link you quoted how about this part at the bottom of the page
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability in the Real World
"What would happen if you bought 7 million tickets?
If you picked a different combination of six numbers for each of those 7 million tickets, you'd have 7 million of the possible winning combinations and the numerator of your probability fraction would therefore be 7 million. Given the second lottery, with a sample space of 14 million possible combinations, the probability of winning the lottery is 7 million/14 million, a probability of 50%.
Thus you can see that the more tickets you buy, the better your chances of winning the lottery. However, you need to buy lots and lots of tickets before the number of tickets you hold really makes a difference. Even if you buy 100 tickets (which might cost you $100), your chances of winning would still only be 100/14 million - not even close to a 1% chance."
so i you bought 7 million you would have a 7,000,000/14,000,000 chance or reducing that down 1/2 or half . 50%
I think the part you are having problems with is the reducing down... i.e 1/2 is the same as 2/4 or 4/8 etc..
The introduction to Probability page that links from the page you mention states this
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability
"Since 4/10 reduces to 2/5, the probability of drawing a red marble where all outcomes are equally likely is 2/5. Expressed as a decimal, 4/10 = .4; as a percent, 4/10 = 40/100 = 40%"
So there you go proof from your own sources..
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability in the Real World
"What would happen if you bought 7 million tickets?
If you picked a different combination of six numbers for each of those 7 million tickets, you'd have 7 million of the possible winning combinations and the numerator of your probability fraction would therefore be 7 million. Given the second lottery, with a sample space of 14 million possible combinations, the probability of winning the lottery is 7 million/14 million, a probability of 50%.
Thus you can see that the more tickets you buy, the better your chances of winning the lottery. However, you need to buy lots and lots of tickets before the number of tickets you hold really makes a difference. Even if you buy 100 tickets (which might cost you $100), your chances of winning would still only be 100/14 million - not even close to a 1% chance."
so i you bought 7 million you would have a 7,000,000/14,000,000 chance or reducing that down 1/2 or half . 50%
I think the part you are having problems with is the reducing down... i.e 1/2 is the same as 2/4 or 4/8 etc..
The introduction to Probability page that links from the page you mention states this
Math Forum: Ask Dr. Math FAQ: Probability
"Since 4/10 reduces to 2/5, the probability of drawing a red marble where all outcomes are equally likely is 2/5. Expressed as a decimal, 4/10 = .4; as a percent, 4/10 = 40/100 = 40%"
So there you go proof from your own sources..
Just because you have half the possible outcomes with 7 million lottery tickets, there is still 7million to 1 chance of winning.
06 February 2007, 09:30 AM
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no because you have 7,000,000 tickets and there are only 14,000,000 options so probability is half.
Simplifying it if there are 10 raffle tickets and you have 5 of them the probability that one of yours will be drawn is 1/2 or half, not 1/5 as there are 5 left...
For it to be a 7 million to one chance you would only need 2 tickets not 7 million
Last edited by THORPEM; 06 February 2007 at 09:31 AM. Reason: .
06 February 2007, 09:40 AM
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Right, again your mixing probablility and fractions. your right where you say
They are your words, right? So:-
So if the odds are 14m to 1 and you buy 7million tickets you reducce your odds by half.
so whats half of 14m to 1... ????
Simplifying it if there are 10 raffle tickets and you have 5 of them the probability that one of yours will be drawn is half
So if the odds are 14m to 1 and you buy 7million tickets you reducce your odds by half.
so whats half of 14m to 1... ????
06 February 2007, 09:49 AM
#103
Think of it as a giant wheel of fortune where each section of the wheel represents a combination, so there'd be 14million segments to the wheel, all the same size cos they each have the same probability of occurring.
Now, imagine you bought 7 million tickets, that means you effectively have covered half of the wheel. Then spin the wheel.... the chances of the wheel landing on your half of the wheel is 0.5, not 7,000,000-1.
Now, imagine you bought 7 million tickets, that means you effectively have covered half of the wheel. Then spin the wheel.... the chances of the wheel landing on your half of the wheel is 0.5, not 7,000,000-1.
06 February 2007, 09:51 AM
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No. If you buy 7 million tickets you have a 1 in 2 chance of winning. That's not the same as a 1 in 7 million chance that you'd have if you bought 2 tickets. But 1 in 7 million *is* twice as likely as 1 in 14 million.
06 February 2007, 09:54 AM
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Think of it as a giant wheel of fortune where each section of the wheel represents a combination, so there'd be 14million segments to the wheel, all the same size cos they each have the same probability of occurring.
Now, imagine you bought 7 million tickets, that means you effectively have covered half of the wheel. Then spin the wheel.... the chances of the wheel landing on your half of the wheel is 0.5, not 7,000,000-1.
Now, imagine you bought 7 million tickets, that means you effectively have covered half of the wheel. Then spin the wheel.... the chances of the wheel landing on your half of the wheel is 0.5, not 7,000,000-1.
I'd be pretty upset if I spent 7million on tickets and my chances of winning the big one were still 7,000,000 to 1
06 February 2007, 09:54 AM
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No, as per my post i'm saying that buying 2 tickets DOES halve the odds, of course it does. But each subsequent ticket doesn't KEEP halving the odds, i think that might be where the confusion is coming from.
06 February 2007, 10:17 AM
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Thats right, to carry on halving your odds you would need to keep doubling your tickets 1,2,4,8,16,32 etc...
06 February 2007, 10:30 AM
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LOL @ this thread!!
Back on topic. I watched the show in question last night courtesy of sky+... it was very interesting. What a lot of losers lacking so much of something else in their empty shells called life...
As for the maths... LOL again
Back on topic. I watched the show in question last night courtesy of sky+... it was very interesting. What a lot of losers lacking so much of something else in their empty shells called life...
As for the maths... LOL again
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