Mitchy260

BBC NEWS | Scotland | North house prices rise fastest


BBC NEWS | Scotland | Tayside and Central | House price surge in small cities

Like i said, buy in Scotland No crash up here

rossyboy

iTrader: (8)

To be fair, the majority of the increases in North Scotland were the first 6 months of the last year, ie October 06 to March 07.

The prices have now pretty much stagnated, with some areas reporting slight falls in the last quarter.

The Rig

iTrader: (13)

House prices only matter to people who are selling/buying,the rest of us home owners needent worry.

i have just bought a place for 169 worth 210,spent 20k on it it is now worth 210.

its irrelevant tho,im not selling,dont plan to for 10 yrs or so,so prices can crash as much as they like, if the increase occurs again like it did the last time the market crashed then in 10 yrs i should be a happy chappy !

for the next 9 yrs it can be worth 5p for all i care,its when i sell im bothered

pslewis

Without realising it, you have hit the nail on the head ........ why?

Well, because the market is driven by 'confidence' in a big way.

You say house prices won't crash because people will step in and stop them in their downward trend and then reverse the prices upwards ...... thats what happens - eventually - when do you step back into the market??

No-one steps into buying something when they see the price falling weekly - I know, I tried selling a house in 1990-1994 ..... I was lowering the price weekly!! The viewers were really 'cocky' saying, "We will monitor the market from our rented houses and then step in when it hits the bottom" and wait they did!!!!

I eventually sold in 1994, after having being on the market for 4 years on and off ..... the price dropped 37%!! The house I bought after I eventually sold had dropped 45% (as it was a new 4-bed with a higher price).

Confidence is dropping away from the market rapidly, very rapidly indeed.

Prices will have to fall to attract the buyers back into the market, buyers will wait, prices drop some more, buyers wait again, prices drop and on we go until, one day, the buyers start buying - prices go up, the more buyers buy, higher prices still, buyers panic and start stretching themselves BOOM.

I'm not sure what the falls will be, but I predict that they will be (on average) in double figures .............. I've lived through all the falls and all the rises.

House prices should have 'corrected' 3 years ago, by some amazing trick, they didn't ........ therefore the fall will be more marked than a simple correction!

When I am denied credit at Debenhams, you can take it as fact that the financial situation is dire .................

The Snug Rhino

Are you serious? Illness in the family, loosing your job, house wont sell - thats wearing...... if you are worn out by a random Internet post you are overly sensitive!

fatherpierre

Some people are sensitive.

GC8WRX

Mitchy260, i only have experience of round my way (Macclesfield). if you can buy a detached in wigan for 200k, i might move there!!!!

Unfortunately, macc has a top blue chip employer which pays half the town stupid wages(not for much longer?), and i live only fives minutes away from wayne rooney, wes brown(who was in our local the other day, complete with continental gt with blacked out lights!), robbie savage etc. so prices round here are stupid, unless you want to live in a part of town where you cant own anything nice cos it will get robbed or vandalised!

fatherpierre

Robbie Savage eh?

Can I have your autograph?

Terminator X

iTrader: (7)

You posted it though so you must believe in it? Do YOU really think that the average house will half in price during 2008 ... if not then why post it "mate".

TX.

pslewis

I predict a 15% fall across the board in 2008.

10.2356% in 2009

5.3569% in 2010

3.35612% in 2011

Level in 2012

2013 will see a 5.3765% rise as will 2014 - 2017 .... then we will see rises of double figures again.

lozgti

Don't be daft! Do what economists do and make the % sound really clever

e.g
10.24% 2009
5.72% 2010 etc etc

(and say it a nasal way to give it even more gravitas )

pslewis

Corrected to suit .........................

Haven'tGotAScooby

Current market condition versus last "crash"

Today: Next interest rate movement widely believed to be down.
Early 90's: Interest rate trend heading skywards until it "financially broke" a large number of families

Today: A huge reservoir of potential buyers, built up over the last 4 or 5 years
Early 90's: A huge reservoir of families unable to cope with 15% interest rates, trying to unload their properties

Doesn't really compare, does it?

TopBanana

The Daily Mash - ESTATE AGENTS WILL STARVE TO DEATH AFTER HOUSE PRICE CRASH, SAYS UPBEAT REPORT

lozgti

Isn't the problem that a lot can't afford to even buy a house and that will be compounded by the fact that next year it will be even harder to get a mortgage?

The days of 'Hi,I have a job and promise you I earn £50k (self cert) '

'oh,ok have 10 times that as a mortgage' are gone

We will be back to sensible levels of lending....which means no one will be able to afford sweet FA

davegtt

The only real concern is if prices did drop and your mortgage fixed rate is up. Trying to remortgage £150k on a £100k property would mean either paying silly variable rates or reposessions IMO. But as I keep saying. I dont see a crash.

PeteBrant

If anything is going to cause an adjustment then it's this.

FTB's going to banks to borrow 5,6 or 7 times thier salary and the Banks not willing to lend the money. The bottom falls out the FTB market and then whole market has to adjust to compensate.

Mitchy260

On the other hand, there's also a big influx of inheritance money going about to help the FTB.

Grans/grandads that are dying having made a profits of 1000-2000% on their properties are leaving their estates to kids/grandkids.There must be a lot of young 1's just waiting on relatives dying to inherit their wealth.

davegtt

Ohhh thats a nice thought.... NOT!!!

borat52

What you really need to remember with housing is that in the market demand is not the number of people who want a house (thats infinite, as everyone wants as many mansions as they can think of) but rather what people are able to pay for a given house.

The economy has been in good shape for well over a decade now, so people have had lots of 'safe' (in terms of the fact their job will still be there tomorrow) money to get a mortgage for a house.

Now assume worst case that our economy is going into a recession, jobs will rapidly dry up and as such real demand for housing (as measured by peoples ability to pay a mortgage) will drop massively. This will start as a gap in the market between buyers and sellers before finally (if recession continues) the selers give way and sell at lower prices.

I then see a crash as a self fulfilling prophecy. At present many 'investors' (theres an old phrase in the financial markets "dont confuse brains with a bull market") hold property thinking 'it'll be worth 10%+ more next year. When this is 5% less than last year they sell a bad investment, fueling supply and driving prices down (crash style, not controlled soft landing, these tend not to happen after a boom).

All you need for this situation is a trigger, our economy is very delicate at present due to the fact many are reliant on low rates of interest to finance insane debts. The credit crunch may well be the start of this, interbank lending rates are going up, making loans very hard to get. People then refinance at higher rates if interest, new people in the market will not get loans, banks will lay staff off and the economy will slow to recession starting the whole crash cycle.

On top of this inflation looks set to be very high next year which will have even more upward pressure on rates.

In short we've all put the economy in a very fragile position, driving up house prices, borrowing huge amounts with no long term guarantee on the cost of that borrowing, and generally going round on a different planet thinking this can carry on forever. The punishment for our stupidity will see many lose their jobs and homes, and everybody suffers in a recession. I just hope we learn something from it this time.

Philip Attaway

What happens with coming out of a fixed mortgage if you now earn less, due to redundancy and new job not paying as much and also 2 kids since taking out the mortgage so wife not earning much!

Our joint income is way off what the mortgage was taken out on yet we pay it ok every month.

The mortgage is big at £300K but I have at least £250K equity (presuming no crash!) Are these factors taken in?

Scooby Soon!

Well i must be mad as I have just bought a house, although I got around 15% to 20% off the value of the house because its a repo I had to have cash and complete the exchange with in 21 days.

Its a long term investment so I dont really care if the price goes up or down I can still rent it out as there are a shortage of house to rent here. Prices have started dipping slightly in the last 2 months down here in the South East (ashford) because i have been looking at Right move every day for 6 months. BUT it seems people wont take an offer on there house, they are all holding out for the asking price even though they are overpriced by about 10%.

!0 to 20% drop max, there are far too many people in this area trying to buy including all the immigrants!

Buy to letters are in trouble though as they cant afford to pay the mortgage anymore, lots of 3 bed terrace houses that are empty round here but wont drop the price to sell them even though they are all empty

fast bloke

You should be able to get another deal with your existing lender, providing you haven't missed any payments and you aren't borrowing more.

GOLDMAN 555

True.....but inflation is going nuts(Bread/beer/97Ron fuel etcetc the treasury is adding £32million a day to the economy they will struggle to hold intrest rates down in the long term. Lowering itrest rates is a short term measure.

Put it this way WE will see 10%+ intrest rates in the next 5-10 years and falling house prices......

With so many people over stretched its going to be a while before it shakes out

lozgti

Thats another problem.The lenders probably won't pass any reductions on whether or not interest rates are cut .They can't afford to

Leslie

Are you saying that there will be a slowdown in the increase of value or a real drop Pete?

Les

pslewis

A real drop, Les ....

Henrik

iTrader: (5)

Everyone keeps going on about immigrants buying houses. I personally don't know of even one immigrant trying to buy a house, everyone I know is renting, so in my experience this assertion is completely wrong.

Scooby Soon!

Loads buying here both indirectly and directly, I know a licensed gangmaster who is buying houses then renting them back to people working for them. They can get a lot more than standard rent back for the house so the purchase price is not so important. Do you think the polish that are now earning £500+ a week are going to carry on renting or are they going to settledown here with a house. Its not "if" they will buy its "when" they will buy. Theres no chance they are going back to there country all the time they can earn lots of cash here!

Which = more demand for houses.....

If a house is priced right it will still sell here in the south east with in a week (I know of one that sold in 1 hour last week!)

Petem95

BBC NEWS | Business | Lenders plead for rate cut help

Oh look, lenders are pleading for a rate cut. CML say; "overall impact is to limit the availability of mortgage credit and to raise its cost for prospective borrowers"... If there's little money being lent, and at high rates what is that going to do to the market?

Rate cut hardly looks likely with inflation rising - CPi in eurozone just hit 3%, up from 2.6%. UK inflation will clearly rise on the back of rising prices of.... just about everything!

Looks like days really are numbered for the greed-fueled "house prices only go up" "I've made £xxx on my property in the last 6 months" bridge.