PeteBrant

Indeed.


THe only difference I can see at the moment between now and the last drop, was that when it went in Q2 1989, London was hit first, quickly followed by the south east. ANd then it was a quarter on quarter drop for the next 4 years.

The North, by comparison didnt start to drop until Q1 1990 but then rallied for the rest of the year, and didn't have consistant drops until late 1991.


THe difference this time (although far too early to tell any trend) is that *everywhere* has dropped this quarter.

What this means, if anything, I have absolutely no idea

Petem95

Doom sayers? But why would a house price crash be such a bad thing? Prices return to a level where FTB's can buy and start families. Homes should not be investment vehicles and we really need some regulations to back this up.

If you'd asked me 6 months ago I'd have said 50% falls on average were not going to happen, but I think its looking very possible now. This crash is shaping up to dwarf the early 90's crash.

The BoE has cut rates, and today Halifax up'd rates on their most popular products by 0.5%. The market is screwed - and we're only just seeing the beginning of the job cuts starting to happen now.

It's all like a perfect storm for a house price crash. It's going to be a big one, and this is just the beginning.

PaulC72

Halifax upped their rates last Sunday Pete before the BOE met and reduced their %age it was a preemptive strike by Halifax I know because I was tipped off as we were fixing ours at the time, 5.79% we ended up with took it reduced our term fixed 10years park it and forget about it as long as my house it worth the same now in 10 years time I will be happy if it is worth more then it will be a bonus.

PeteBrant

BBC NEWS | Business | First house price fall since 1996

1% down on the 12 months.

SPEN555

Article first was titled 'First house price fall since 1996' and now titled 'UK house prices see annual fall'. Whats that all about ???

PeteBrant

Dunno?

It is the first Year on year fall since 1996, so either is right. No idea why they changed it though.

lozgti

So,it is actually happening.Property prices are coming down.

Wonder how long the government and B of E can keep their finger in the dam and keep the losses to a trickle?

Gear Head

iTrader: (2)

Then how come the average flat has risen by £2.84 a day since January then?

House Prices Fall By £45 A Day - Yahoo! News UK

EddScott

1% is hardly cause for concern right now. Just more media frenzy.

The real issue is how hard it is to get a sensible mortgage right now. The interest rate cuts haven't been passed on and the fees being asked make any "special rate" truly pointless over the period.

If this carries on it will bring down the housing market faster than anyone first imagined.

PeteBrant

Well, it is a bit of a big deal - Because in December, House prices were up 10% year on year.

Basically house prices have fallen for the last 6 momths consecutively dragging fown the year on year number with them - In effect, house price have dropped around 10% in the last 6 months

Terminator X

iTrader: (7)

Try rearranging this sentance - cat a not hells in chance

TX.

Terminator X

iTrader: (7)

Av price for April 2008 - £178,555. Not much change in the month

TX.

lozgti

House prices post biggest fall since 1993 | Reuters

SPEN555

Heard on local radio this morning. DJ says something like "A fall of £1,750 is hardly a crash is it" I don't think the nugget head realised that is £1,750 in one month!

PeteBrant

Local radio DJs are quite possibly the most unintelligent people on the face of the planet. I love that they feel the need to comment on the news of the day when they don't even have a basic grasp of what it is they are commenting on.

I also want to smash the fac ein of my local breakfast DJ. Whose radio station my clock radio is tuned into as its the only station I can reliably get a good signal from.

Every single morning this complete waste of DNA says "It;s 7 O'clock and welcome to <insert day of the week here>

What do you mean "welcome to Wednesday"? What you ****ing own it do you? It's your day is it and I'm your guest? why limit it to the day you complete **** head? I mean why not welcome me to 7:42? Why not "invite me in" to 8:30?


****.

Leslie

Surely the only logical answer Pete is that houses have been grossly overvalued because of cheap loans and people being encouraged into huge mortgages that they really can't afford. The amount of mortgage available used to be 3 times your salary which was managable and that kept house prices down as well. It was certainly easier to get on the housing ladder then and I think the banks' greed in offering mighty mortgages has been unfair and irresponsible.

Les

FlightMan

Calm down Pete!

speedking

And HMG is irresponsibly offering another £50bn so that the banks can offer more mortgages to suckers while keeping their own risk relatively low Once that has been lent we will be back to square 1 but £50bn poorer

Why not give everyone a £1000 and let them decide where is the best place to invest it? I bet it wouldn't be lending it to the banks.

The trouble is that although more cash is tied up in the property market, the underlying worth of the assets is unchanged. The extra money just gets soaked up into the big sponge.

Deep Singh

A friend of mine has just remortgaged two of his btls, they have been revalued at 8% and 15% below the original valuation 2 years ago. He was also asked for an arrangement fee of £5000 if he wanted the best interest rate. Btw he did not buy overvalued new builds.

There will be carnage, but this will allow a once in a lifetime opportunity for some. But to belong to this group you will need

1) A wad of cash

2) To be a grade 1 lending risk to banks (good secure job, good salary and low debt

3) Have the nerve to buy when everyone else is saying that property is the devils spawn and will never rise again (maybe in 18 months + time?)

Petem95

But you thought there was "not a cat in hells chance" of prices falling did you?

Now prices are falling sharply, so you've been wrong once, and could well be wrong again!

Terminator X

iTrader: (7)

^^ A 50% fall though ... you're dreaming!

I've never once said house prices would not / could not go down merely that there will be no "crash".

TX.

PeteBrant

I don't think any eeconomist or expert is predicting a 50% crash.

If last time is anything to go by, then nationally, a 20-25% reduction is more likely, if that.

However, remember - It is almost certain that whatever the adjustment, they *will* come back up.

fast bloke

LMAO at Pete casting up that someone has been wrong once.

Pete - lets face it - house prices will never drop 30% below 2004 levels, as you predicted they would. Therefore you are wrong forever.

What is it you hope to gain from a 'crash' anyway. Why does the possibility make you so happy?

dpb

25%, more realistic

cookstar

iTrader: (6)

30% preferable

fast bloke

25% below 2004 prices? Don't think so. 25% below June 2007 prices is realistic, maybe even 30%, but at the end of the day, Pete will still be wrong forever

Brit_in_Japan

This is not a black-and-white story, there are many different shades of grey. At the one end of the spectrum you have the new apartment complexes built in not particularly attractive locations and largely funded by speculative BTL landlords.... oh dear, they will take a big hit.

Alternatively you will have nice properties in nice locations close to good schools which will always be in demand. There is no way such properties are going to drop 25%, not even close.

Those in the business are now suggesting single digit drops this year and next year too (assuming lending conditions stay as they are now). Some properties will drop less than average, some more.

Ultimately this correction is a good thing, we all know you cannot have house prices going up at 10%/year indefinitely when wages are only increasing by around 3%. It would be better if house prices rose in line with average wages or inflation.

kingofturds

iTrader: (1)

Oh dear oh dear, maybe labour should have built the economy on manufacturing wealth rather than consumer debt

Paul3446

House prices go up 300%, then "fall 2.5% in some parts of the country" and it's a collapse!

Petem95

Damn right! Whats really scary is that of the 3million jobs created since Labour came to power 10 years or so ago, 1.5m are government jobs, and almost all the others are in service sector or retail....

I guess you are one of these people who think that a 50% fall is needed to wipe out a 50% rise aren't you?....