House prices, the April 08 installment
#151
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Indeed.
THe only difference I can see at the moment between now and the last drop, was that when it went in Q2 1989, London was hit first, quickly followed by the south east. ANd then it was a quarter on quarter drop for the next 4 years.
The North, by comparison didnt start to drop until Q1 1990 but then rallied for the rest of the year, and didn't have consistant drops until late 1991.
THe difference this time (although far too early to tell any trend) is that *everywhere* has dropped this quarter.
What this means, if anything, I have absolutely no idea
THe only difference I can see at the moment between now and the last drop, was that when it went in Q2 1989, London was hit first, quickly followed by the south east. ANd then it was a quarter on quarter drop for the next 4 years.
The North, by comparison didnt start to drop until Q1 1990 but then rallied for the rest of the year, and didn't have consistant drops until late 1991.
THe difference this time (although far too early to tell any trend) is that *everywhere* has dropped this quarter.
What this means, if anything, I have absolutely no idea
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#152
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Originally Posted by Terminator X
Don't hold your breath ...
TX.
TX.
The BoE has cut rates, and today Halifax up'd rates on their most popular products by 0.5%. The market is screwed - and we're only just seeing the beginning of the job cuts starting to happen now.
It's all like a perfect storm for a house price crash. It's going to be a big one, and this is just the beginning.
Last edited by Petem95; 16 April 2008 at 08:22 AM.
#153
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Halifax upped their rates last Sunday Pete before the BOE met and reduced their %age it was a preemptive strike by Halifax
I know because I was tipped off as we were fixing ours at the time, 5.79% we ended up with took it reduced our term fixed 10years park it and forget about it as long as my house it worth the same now in 10 years time I will be happy if it is worth more then it will be a bonus.
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#154
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#155
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#156
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Then how come the average flat has risen by £2.84 a day since January then?
House Prices Fall By £45 A Day - Yahoo! News UK
![Ponder2](images/smilies/ponder2.gif)
House Prices Fall By £45 A Day - Yahoo! News UK
#159
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1% is hardly cause for concern right now. Just more media frenzy.
The real issue is how hard it is to get a sensible mortgage right now. The interest rate cuts haven't been passed on and the fees being asked make any "special rate" truly pointless over the period.
If this carries on it will bring down the housing market faster than anyone first imagined.
The real issue is how hard it is to get a sensible mortgage right now. The interest rate cuts haven't been passed on and the fees being asked make any "special rate" truly pointless over the period.
If this carries on it will bring down the housing market faster than anyone first imagined.
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Well, it is a bit of a big deal - Because in December, House prices were up 10% year on year.
Basically house prices have fallen for the last 6 momths consecutively dragging fown the year on year number with them - In effect, house price have dropped around 10% in the last 6 months
Basically house prices have fallen for the last 6 momths consecutively dragging fown the year on year number with them - In effect, house price have dropped around 10% in the last 6 months
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Av price for April 2008 - £178,555. Not much change in the month ![Wink](images/smilies/wink.gif)
TX.
![Wink](images/smilies/wink.gif)
TX.
It's easy to keep track of this via the "average" house price. In 1995 it was £51k, in 2005 it was £159k. In 1Q2008 it was/is £179k (note a drop from £184k in 4Q2007). Keep an eye on Nationwides website & there can be no arguement can there?
TX.
Edit - great minds Pete![Wink](images/smilies/wink.gif)
TX.
Edit - great minds Pete
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Heard on local radio this morning. DJ says something like "A fall of £1,750 is hardly a crash is it" I don't think the nugget head realised that is £1,750 in one month!
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#165
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I also want to smash the fac ein of my local breakfast DJ. Whose radio station my clock radio is tuned into as its the only station I can reliably get a good signal from.
Every single morning this complete waste of DNA says "It;s 7 O'clock and welcome to <insert day of the week here>
What do you mean "welcome to Wednesday"? What you ****ing own it do you? It's your day is it and I'm your guest? why limit it to the day you complete **** head? I mean why not welcome me to 7:42? Why not "invite me in" to 8:30?
****.
#166
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Indeed.
THe only difference I can see at the moment between now and the last drop, was that when it went in Q2 1989, London was hit first, quickly followed by the south east. ANd then it was a quarter on quarter drop for the next 4 years.
The North, by comparison didnt start to drop until Q1 1990 but then rallied for the rest of the year, and didn't have consistant drops until late 1991.
THe difference this time (although far too early to tell any trend) is that *everywhere* has dropped this quarter.
What this means, if anything, I have absolutely no idea![Smile](images/smilies/smile.gif)
THe only difference I can see at the moment between now and the last drop, was that when it went in Q2 1989, London was hit first, quickly followed by the south east. ANd then it was a quarter on quarter drop for the next 4 years.
The North, by comparison didnt start to drop until Q1 1990 but then rallied for the rest of the year, and didn't have consistant drops until late 1991.
THe difference this time (although far too early to tell any trend) is that *everywhere* has dropped this quarter.
What this means, if anything, I have absolutely no idea
![Smile](images/smilies/smile.gif)
Les
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Local radio DJs are quite possibly the most unintelligent people on the face of the planet. I love that they feel the need to comment on the news of the day when they don't even have a basic grasp of what it is they are commenting on.
I also want to smash the fac ein of my local breakfast DJ. Whose radio station my clock radio is tuned into as its the only station I can reliably get a good signal from.
Every single morning this complete waste of DNA says "It;s 7 O'clock and welcome to <insert day of the week here>
What do you mean "welcome to Wednesday"? What you ****ing own it do you? It's your day is it and I'm your guest? why limit it to the day you complete **** head? I mean why not welcome me to 7:42? Why not "invite me in" to 8:30?
****.
I also want to smash the fac ein of my local breakfast DJ. Whose radio station my clock radio is tuned into as its the only station I can reliably get a good signal from.
Every single morning this complete waste of DNA says "It;s 7 O'clock and welcome to <insert day of the week here>
What do you mean "welcome to Wednesday"? What you ****ing own it do you? It's your day is it and I'm your guest? why limit it to the day you complete **** head? I mean why not welcome me to 7:42? Why not "invite me in" to 8:30?
****.
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Calm down Pete!
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#168
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And HMG is irresponsibly offering another £50bn so that the banks can offer more mortgages to suckers while keeping their own risk relatively low
Once that has been lent we will be back to square 1 but £50bn poorer ![Mad](images/smilies/mad.gif)
Why not give everyone a £1000 and let them decide where is the best place to invest it? I bet it wouldn't be lending it to the banks.
The trouble is that although more cash is tied up in the property market, the underlying worth of the assets is unchanged. The extra money just gets soaked up into the big sponge.
![EEK!](images/smilies/eek.gif)
![Mad](images/smilies/mad.gif)
Why not give everyone a £1000 and let them decide where is the best place to invest it? I bet it wouldn't be lending it to the banks.
The trouble is that although more cash is tied up in the property market, the underlying worth of the assets is unchanged. The extra money just gets soaked up into the big sponge.
#169
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A friend of mine has just remortgaged two of his btls, they have been revalued at 8% and 15% below the original valuation 2 years ago. He was also asked for an arrangement fee of £5000 if he wanted the best interest rate. Btw he did not buy overvalued new builds.
There will be carnage, but this will allow a once in a lifetime opportunity for some. But to belong to this group you will need
1) A wad of cash
2) To be a grade 1 lending risk to banks (good secure job, good salary and low debt
3) Have the nerve to buy when everyone else is saying that property is the devils spawn and will never rise again (maybe in 18 months + time?)
There will be carnage, but this will allow a once in a lifetime opportunity for some. But to belong to this group you will need
1) A wad of cash
2) To be a grade 1 lending risk to banks (good secure job, good salary and low debt
3) Have the nerve to buy when everyone else is saying that property is the devils spawn and will never rise again (maybe in 18 months + time?)
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#172
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I don't think any eeconomist or expert is predicting a 50% crash.
If last time is anything to go by, then nationally, a 20-25% reduction is more likely, if that.
However, remember - It is almost certain that whatever the adjustment, they *will* come back up.
If last time is anything to go by, then nationally, a 20-25% reduction is more likely, if that.
However, remember - It is almost certain that whatever the adjustment, they *will* come back up.
#173
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LMAO at Pete casting up that someone has been wrong once.
Pete - lets face it - house prices will never drop 30% below 2004 levels, as you predicted they would. Therefore you are wrong forever.
What is it you hope to gain from a 'crash' anyway. Why does the possibility make you so happy?
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This is not a black-and-white story, there are many different shades of grey. At the one end of the spectrum you have the new apartment complexes built in not particularly attractive locations and largely funded by speculative BTL landlords.... oh dear, they will take a big hit.
Alternatively you will have nice properties in nice locations close to good schools which will always be in demand. There is no way such properties are going to drop 25%, not even close.
Those in the business are now suggesting single digit drops this year and next year too (assuming lending conditions stay as they are now). Some properties will drop less than average, some more.
Ultimately this correction is a good thing, we all know you cannot have house prices going up at 10%/year indefinitely when wages are only increasing by around 3%. It would be better if house prices rose in line with average wages or inflation.
Alternatively you will have nice properties in nice locations close to good schools which will always be in demand. There is no way such properties are going to drop 25%, not even close.
Those in the business are now suggesting single digit drops this year and next year too (assuming lending conditions stay as they are now). Some properties will drop less than average, some more.
Ultimately this correction is a good thing, we all know you cannot have house prices going up at 10%/year indefinitely when wages are only increasing by around 3%. It would be better if house prices rose in line with average wages or inflation.
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Originally Posted by Paul3446
House prices go up 300%, then "fall 2.5% in some parts of the country" and it's a collapse!
![Cuckoo](images/smilies/cuckoo.gif)