Housing Bubble ....
#62
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Not quite true, if 100k rises to 118k then a 9% drop takes it back to 107k.
You'd need a 15% drop to wipe out a 19% rise.
The bigger the numbers get the more the difference though, eg a 100% rise needs a 50% drop to wipe it out, a 50% rise needs a 33% drop to wipe it out.
The other factor also in play is inflation, I have not checked but I suspect Halifax/Nationwide index their prices with inflation taken into account, as assuming 5% inflation and house prices stagnant for a year (neither is true but just to illustrate a point) you'd actually have a 5% drop in prices year on year in real terms even though a 100k house would still be worth 100k - its just 100k would not be worth what it was last year. in the 90's inflation played a big part in eroding house prices.
You'd need a 15% drop to wipe out a 19% rise.
The bigger the numbers get the more the difference though, eg a 100% rise needs a 50% drop to wipe it out, a 50% rise needs a 33% drop to wipe it out.
The other factor also in play is inflation, I have not checked but I suspect Halifax/Nationwide index their prices with inflation taken into account, as assuming 5% inflation and house prices stagnant for a year (neither is true but just to illustrate a point) you'd actually have a 5% drop in prices year on year in real terms even though a 100k house would still be worth 100k - its just 100k would not be worth what it was last year. in the 90's inflation played a big part in eroding house prices.
#65
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Secondly, I strongly advise you to stop using your own offensive abuse when referring to me!
Les
#66
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Or he'll run to teacher and have it removed. Laughable if it wasn't such a tragic waste of life, even somebody bored at home with not much to do.
#67
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It really doesn't matter whether he is trolling or not Les, he is a banned user who shouldn't be here, so everyone knows they can infract him without worrying about getting told off. It's just doing Webby's job for him I guess.
It wasn't me by the way, I didn't even realise it was him!
It wasn't me by the way, I didn't even realise it was him!
#68
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That is fair enough then.
Excuse my earlier response by the way, nothing personal
. I'm just a little bored with other people who simply just like to repeat what they hear in the gutter press but are unwilling to stand by their word or make any kind of significant stand to reinforce what they say.
![Smile](images/smilies/smile.gif)
Excuse my earlier response by the way, nothing personal
![Smile](images/smilies/smile.gif)
"We don't have high levels of unemployment, blah, blah, Interest rates aren't as high as they were in the last crash..." All trotted out by economics editors and business leader writers, who really should have known better. Economic prosperity IS cyclical, and goes from boom to bust, and back again, despite what Gordon Brownhole might claim, every 10-20 years.
I'm just a little bored with people who keep blaming the "gutter" press for their financial woes, when it is their own greed, and the greed of the banks, exacerbating the current financial crisis.
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#70
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That is fair enough then.
Excuse my earlier response by the way, nothing personal
. I'm just a little bored with other people who simply just like to repeat what they hear in the gutter press but are unwilling to stand by their word or make any kind of significant stand to reinforce what they say.
![Smile](images/smilies/smile.gif)
Excuse my earlier response by the way, nothing personal
![Smile](images/smilies/smile.gif)
I am, for whatever its worth, convinced that we are going to see a long and drawn out property recession. There is an interesting article in this months Investors Chronicle, nothing new as such, but they've analysed all the previous property recessions in the UK and given some stats. The average time of the recession was 60 months!
The stats also show that during almost every recession there have been a number of months where there has been positive house price growth recorded ie false starts (or dead cat bounce if you like)
This will be the thing to watch out for, and not get suckered in at this point if you are looking to invest.
Cheers
#71
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How can you bag a "bargain" if your house has also gone down in price? First time buyers or Millionaires who can afford to drop a few £100k perhaps ...
IMHO houses will never again be a bargain. Prices went too high to ever drop back down to bargain levels. Those that didn't buy back in 2000(ish) have forever lost out.
TX.
IMHO houses will never again be a bargain. Prices went too high to ever drop back down to bargain levels. Those that didn't buy back in 2000(ish) have forever lost out.
TX.
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