Sorry Halifax
17 September 2008, 07:29 PM
#91
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Some worthwhile posts I agree, I would have preferred them to start as the first part of the topic not as a by product of the original post 
Anyway that said, what needs to happen to get things moving again as from where I am sitting it looks pretty black, USA in trouble still and have been for a long time, other markets in europe hitting troubles and around the world things seems to be also slowing {except Dubai for some reason?} Uk on the downward spiral which I expect will end up being like the USA in months to come but no sign of any let up only a long road ahead.
I suppose we need to look at USA for when they start to recover for a clue as to when we could be heading out ourselves, probably some 6 months from that point or longer?
Anyway that said, what needs to happen to get things moving again as from where I am sitting it looks pretty black, USA in trouble still and have been for a long time, other markets in europe hitting troubles and around the world things seems to be also slowing {except Dubai for some reason?} Uk on the downward spiral which I expect will end up being like the USA in months to come but no sign of any let up only a long road ahead.
I suppose we need to look at USA for when they start to recover for a clue as to when we could be heading out ourselves, probably some 6 months from that point or longer?
17 September 2008, 07:34 PM
#92
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17 September 2008, 07:49 PM
#93
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17 September 2008, 07:55 PM
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17 September 2008, 09:04 PM
#96
I am not going to go in to detail for fear of being accused I am looking for a bite or sounding like a NACRO diatribe but I am not worrying, basically, My family and I are ok, well fed, warm, happy etc HBOS looks like its had a shot over the bows and is merging so should be ok, things will pick up again so whats the problem ?
The problem is for those with a couple of quid in there, panicing about it and causing a stampede of the easily spooked, thus fueling a potential self fulfilling prophecy, which I dont think will happen, HBOS are relatively stable.
Leave it there, take the hit, let all the muppets jump this way and that, wait a few years and then have a rethink, dont invest in Stocks and Shares if you cant afford to lose it. Long term, unless it goes really **** up you will be ok, in the meantime, enjoy cheaper pleasures, your health and watching smug City type falling from high places.
Hopefully they may stop advertising using that annoying Howard and his little chirpy Chinese buddy.
The problem is for those with a couple of quid in there, panicing about it and causing a stampede of the easily spooked, thus fueling a potential self fulfilling prophecy, which I dont think will happen, HBOS are relatively stable.
Leave it there, take the hit, let all the muppets jump this way and that, wait a few years and then have a rethink, dont invest in Stocks and Shares if you cant afford to lose it. Long term, unless it goes really **** up you will be ok, in the meantime, enjoy cheaper pleasures, your health and watching smug City type falling from high places.
Hopefully they may stop advertising using that annoying Howard and his little chirpy Chinese buddy.
Last edited by J4CKO; 17 September 2008 at 09:08 PM.
17 September 2008, 09:47 PM
#97
I don't blame joe public taking their savings out. I blame the shorters who make millions shorting the banking stocks. Doesn't matter how good the bank's balance sheets look, shares are traded on sentiment and its shorters that are causing the turmoil amongst the banks.
17 September 2008, 10:01 PM
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The banks are actually "fairly" innocent in all of this. Especially the UK banks
Banks were sold triple A investments, that were bad. They were sold repackaged sub prime mortgages that disguised the risk - It was totally legal - its just that people assumed that because the system worked with a 2% sub-primne market, there was no reason it wouldn't work as the sub-prime market grew. It didn't.
All of the sudden these triple A investment (which are all buy guaranteed not to lose money) start losing money, and banks find that have an indeterminate amount of exposure ot the problem.
And that's half the problem - Banks had no idea just how big their problems were, because thier exposure ot the sub-prome market was unknown.
So they stop lending to each other. And since a lot of banks work on the basis that they lend at a higher interest rate than they borrow, the whole thing ceases up.
I think the end result of all this will be that banks will work how they used to; Only lending money they actually have.
Banks were sold triple A investments, that were bad. They were sold repackaged sub prime mortgages that disguised the risk - It was totally legal - its just that people assumed that because the system worked with a 2% sub-primne market, there was no reason it wouldn't work as the sub-prime market grew. It didn't.
All of the sudden these triple A investment (which are all buy guaranteed not to lose money) start losing money, and banks find that have an indeterminate amount of exposure ot the problem.
And that's half the problem - Banks had no idea just how big their problems were, because thier exposure ot the sub-prome market was unknown.
So they stop lending to each other. And since a lot of banks work on the basis that they lend at a higher interest rate than they borrow, the whole thing ceases up.
I think the end result of all this will be that banks will work how they used to; Only lending money they actually have.
Fairly innocent, or fairl bleedin' stupid?
17 September 2008, 11:04 PM
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The thing is, you can't really "price" a mortgage income stream, the thing these products were based on. Well you can in theory i suppose. But when people are repossessed and they don't have a home or a mortgage any more, that nice shiny AAA rated asset-backed security isn't worth the paper it's written on, quite literally. It's all very well telling everybody that it's worth x amount, but like anything, when the actual bid is multiples, many multiples lower than where you value it, then Houston, we have a problem. Basically nobody will touch one of these products with a bargepole now, there just isn't a market any more. So that's billions and billions of dollars worth of collateral that's suddenly worth **** all to a jam tart.
17 September 2008, 11:14 PM
#102
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I don't think that's entirely fair, Jon. The institutions caught in the spotlight at the moment are there for good reasons, by and large. I can't think of one bank which has been put under stress just because of speculative shorting if i'm honest.
18 September 2008, 01:11 AM
#105
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The risk is that the FSA only guarantees 4 billion GBP.
Even if the government stepped in and guaranteed all deposits, he could face a long wait to get it, and also probably lose out on any interest he might have got in the meantime (ok, not a lot for 15k, but still).
Are your savings safe?: Full guide to protect your cash ... - The section entitled "Is the FSCS big enough to cope?"
Even if the government stepped in and guaranteed all deposits, he could face a long wait to get it, and also probably lose out on any interest he might have got in the meantime (ok, not a lot for 15k, but still).
Are your savings safe?: Full guide to protect your cash ... - The section entitled "Is the FSCS big enough to cope?"
18 September 2008, 01:28 AM
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18 September 2008, 07:20 AM
#108
Speculators/hedge funds have been widely blamed for the aggressive shorting of HBOS's shares. It won;t be long before the FSA will bring in tighter restrictions on this practice, especially given the current financial climate. We'll see what will happen with Golmans and Morgan Stanley today......
18 September 2008, 07:56 AM
#109
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[QUOTE=J4CKO;8139110]
The problem is for those with a couple of quid in there, panicing about it and causing a stampede of the easily spooked, thus fueling a potential self fulfilling prophecy, which I dont think will happen, HBOS are relatively stable.
The problem is for those with a couple of quid in there, panicing about it and causing a stampede of the easily spooked, thus fueling a potential self fulfilling prophecy, which I dont think will happen, HBOS are relatively stable.
18 September 2008, 08:03 AM
#110
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Well,from saying how wonderful they were and 'no problems on getting cash' and being a 'well placed company' and blah blah blah they were bought out.
So the bottom line is that they were in trouble however you dress it up.I find that scary that one of the most respected big boys was in that position(though it seems a lot of them are in that position)
Is this the 'over leverage' they all talk about? Banks just don't have money,just paper promises?
Anyway.I might snap up B & B seeing as they are about 29p a share.I could probably buy the whole company
So the bottom line is that they were in trouble however you dress it up.I find that scary that one of the most respected big boys was in that position(though it seems a lot of them are in that position)
Is this the 'over leverage' they all talk about? Banks just don't have money,just paper promises?
Anyway.I might snap up B & B seeing as they are about 29p a share.I could probably buy the whole company
18 September 2008, 08:13 AM
#111
If a year ago someone said that the whole financial market would be screwed and that there will be no Bear Stearns, no Lehmans Brothers, no Merill Lynch, no HBOS, we'd all be laughing and ripping the p1ss out of that person that they're in la-la land. Look where the sector is today, those big institutions have fallen...and its not over, that's scary.
Last edited by jonc; 18 September 2008 at 09:38 AM.
18 September 2008, 08:17 AM
#112
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had to buy most of the christmas presents in the local poundshop as my account was frozen
hard times, now i am a bit more lucky in that i get paid with cash instead of my wages going into my account, so if that ever happened again, well i could drag it out for a very long time paying it back, while at the same time, living a normal life from my daily cash takings
getting paid every single day is ****en awesome at times LOL
18 September 2008, 09:36 AM
#113
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This now creates a single bank with over 25% of the UK market and covers other lenders like Cheltenham + Gloucester etc so it is bad for competition and bad for consumers at the end of the day.
Still, some stock market oik made a killing so that's ok then.
5t.
18 September 2008, 09:50 AM
#114
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I'm not sure I am overly concerned whether you place any importance on what I say or not - I just felt it was a bit conceited of you, not to mention completely unnecessary, to belittle everything everyone had said in the thread up to that point.
18 September 2008, 10:01 AM
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Well,from saying how wonderful they were and 'no problems on getting cash' and being a 'well placed company' and blah blah blah they were bought out.
So the bottom line is that they were in trouble however you dress it up.I find that scary that one of the most respected big boys was in that position(though it seems a lot of them are in that position)
Is this the 'over leverage' they all talk about? Banks just don't have money,just paper promises?
Anyway.I might snap up B & B seeing as they are about 29p a share.I could probably buy the whole company
So the bottom line is that they were in trouble however you dress it up.I find that scary that one of the most respected big boys was in that position(though it seems a lot of them are in that position)
Is this the 'over leverage' they all talk about? Banks just don't have money,just paper promises?
Anyway.I might snap up B & B seeing as they are about 29p a share.I could probably buy the whole company
It is in our interests to negotiate a merger rather then get taken over when we hit rock bottom by god knows who.
Geezer
18 September 2008, 10:06 AM
#117
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No, as a business, we are not in trouble. We are making money, we have good reserves, everything you have heard us say is true. However, our share price has collapsed for a number of reasons, mostly due to people trying to manipulate the market and because of a perception that we are vunerable when we are not.
It is in our interests to negotiate a merger rather then get taken over when we hit rock bottom by god knows who.
Geezer
It is in our interests to negotiate a merger rather then get taken over when we hit rock bottom by god knows who.
Geezer
18 September 2008, 10:08 AM
#118
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Originally Posted by Geezer
No, as a business, we are not in trouble. We are making money, we have good reserves, everything you have heard us say is true. However, our share price has collapsed for a number of reasons, mostly due to people trying to manipulate the market and because of a perception that we are vunerable when we are not.
It is in our interests to negotiate a merger rather then get taken over when we hit rock bottom by god knows who.
Geezer
It is in our interests to negotiate a merger rather then get taken over when we hit rock bottom by god knows who.
Geezer
With regards to a merger versus a takeover, i think it is being described takeover.
Regardless, I genuinely hope you won't be affected personally to any great extent.
18 September 2008, 10:11 AM
#120
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Up to £35k and you are guaranteed to get it back, underwritten by the FSA (i.e. the government). There is no risk.
It people like you that fuel these situations. Bet you had your car full to the brim and ten jerry cans of petrol at home during the fuel shortages and helped clear the supermarkets of bottled water, bread, etc. during the flooding.
Panic, panic, panic.
Les