Halifax - House Price Fall Increasing
05 December 2008, 04:27 PM
#31
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Derivatives markets are predicting futher falls of 30-35% on top of the 15% falls which have happened already. They have a vested interest in making accurate predictions, so this carries some weight, unlike predictions from mortgage lenders etc (even whose predictions are still for big falls)
IMO prices will fall something like 50-60% from their 2007 peaks based on the current economic climate. This whole economic mess (and potential depression) is down the massive unsustainable debt bubble going POP!
Just look at what happened to house prices in Japan!
05 December 2008, 04:34 PM
#32
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Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.....
But ever time they mention on the news about house prices going down, its the "average price" of a house that has been "sold" that is used for the data.
So you could argue that its because the very expensive houses are not selling as often (compared to lower priced property) and that is why the average sale price is lower!
This is how I understand it having looked into the actual data being quoted.
So its just the "average" price of a house that has been sold, that has gone down.
Theoretically, if loads more multi million pound properties were sold (even if their sale value was lower than say what it was 2 yrs ago) and no sub 100k sold, it would make the indices show prices going up!
I know things are not always black & white, but when they are always quoting "averages" on the news, it has to be taken in context.
Anyone see where I'm coming from on this?
Or is it just me
But ever time they mention on the news about house prices going down, its the "average price" of a house that has been "sold" that is used for the data.
So you could argue that its because the very expensive houses are not selling as often (compared to lower priced property) and that is why the average sale price is lower!
This is how I understand it having looked into the actual data being quoted.
So its just the "average" price of a house that has been sold, that has gone down.
Theoretically, if loads more multi million pound properties were sold (even if their sale value was lower than say what it was 2 yrs ago) and no sub 100k sold, it would make the indices show prices going up!
I know things are not always black & white, but when they are always quoting "averages" on the news, it has to be taken in context.
Anyone see where I'm coming from on this?
Or is it just me
Most MultiMillion ££££ Houses do not appear in the Halifax and Nationwide figures as mortgages do not tend to be needed for them.
The Land Registry figures can only give an accurate indication on properties registered with them when sold for the second time.
The other indicies look at asking prices.
But, the figure to look at is the RATE of increase or decrease .. and this Halifax report says that the rate is increasing, so prices generally are falling at a faster rate than at any other time in history - doesn't matter if the average price is £5 or £10 or £150,000.
05 December 2008, 04:37 PM
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According to those in denial - and of course Nu Liebor 'ministers' everything will be 'back to normal' in about 18 months or so. 
They are clearly choosing to ignore the evidence of the statistics staring them in the face. A few of us one here had been predicting a crash on this scale for a number of years. Always accused of being 'doom mongers' of course. Everyone is facing a 'nu reality' now the liar McBroon's house of cards has collapsed.
They are clearly choosing to ignore the evidence of the statistics staring them in the face. A few of us one here had been predicting a crash on this scale for a number of years. Always accused of being 'doom mongers' of course. Everyone is facing a 'nu reality' now the liar McBroon's house of cards has collapsed.
05 December 2008, 04:52 PM
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Here's Clarkson's opinion. Not unlike my own....
BBC NEWS | Business | Jeremy Clarkson on car sales decline
The politicians already know how bad things are going to get. That's why they don't tell us. This '18 months until we recover' stuff is just another one of their lies.
BBC NEWS | Business | Jeremy Clarkson on car sales decline
The politicians already know how bad things are going to get. That's why they don't tell us. This '18 months until we recover' stuff is just another one of their lies.
Last edited by unclebuck; 05 December 2008 at 08:37 PM.
05 December 2008, 05:22 PM
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I suspect its very hard to get a true indication of values and any drops - I hear that house sales were now only about 10% what they were 18 months ago.
As they can only take the figures for any drops from houses that have sold, then the figure is going to be skewed as a lot of these properties are going to be either repossessions, people desperate to sell, or hugely overpriced newbuilds that the developers are flogging cheap just to get some money back on.
So what they are really reporting is that the 10% of houses that have sold, have sold for less than they would have last month, which is a lot different than saying every house in the country has gone down by the same amount.
Lets face it, most people will just decide not to sell rather than take a lot less than they think the house is worth, and people arent going to sell for less than they paid unless they HAVE to.
Its quite easy to say 'house prices have dropped by 20%' or that they will be '40% cheaper in two years' but that doesnt mean you can go out and buy that house you want for 20% or 40% less than it was if nobody who owns those houses wants to sell them.
I suspect most owners who were thinking of selling just wont bother, or will leave their house on the market at whatever price they want, and if someone comes close to that price, only then will they sell.
Its just like the interest rates, the interest rate may well be very low, but if the lenders wont lend you money at a cheaper rate when you need to remortgage or for a FTB, then what difference does it make ?
As they can only take the figures for any drops from houses that have sold, then the figure is going to be skewed as a lot of these properties are going to be either repossessions, people desperate to sell, or hugely overpriced newbuilds that the developers are flogging cheap just to get some money back on.
So what they are really reporting is that the 10% of houses that have sold, have sold for less than they would have last month, which is a lot different than saying every house in the country has gone down by the same amount.
Lets face it, most people will just decide not to sell rather than take a lot less than they think the house is worth, and people arent going to sell for less than they paid unless they HAVE to.
Its quite easy to say 'house prices have dropped by 20%' or that they will be '40% cheaper in two years' but that doesnt mean you can go out and buy that house you want for 20% or 40% less than it was if nobody who owns those houses wants to sell them.
I suspect most owners who were thinking of selling just wont bother, or will leave their house on the market at whatever price they want, and if someone comes close to that price, only then will they sell.
Its just like the interest rates, the interest rate may well be very low, but if the lenders wont lend you money at a cheaper rate when you need to remortgage or for a FTB, then what difference does it make ?
05 December 2008, 05:42 PM
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Local conditions dictate prices, of course.
05 December 2008, 06:03 PM
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The market conditions vary throughout the country, so it's difficult to predict a general percentage. Where we are, prices have fallen about 15%. We are now seeing mid 2005 prices. What we are also seeing is fewer properties on the market and rentals starting to look expensive compared to a mortgage on a similar property. The main problem isn't people not wanting to own their own home, its that they simply cannot raise a sufficient deposit/associated costs. Until the banks start to accept 5-10% deposits again, things will be slow. Once this happens, house sales will increase (maybe not prices), but I think the big lesson is that we shouldnt rely on the value of our houses to maintain our lifestyle. Houses will always go up and down. I remember in 1991/92 it was said that we wouldnt see 1988 prices again for a good 25 years, yet we were soon back to those and over double in 2006. Its totally unpredictable because there are so many things to factor in.
05 December 2008, 06:04 PM
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It's just you
Most MultiMillion ££££ Houses do not appear in the Halifax and Nationwide figures as mortgages do not tend to be needed for them.
The Land Registry figures can only give an accurate indication on properties registered with them when sold for the second time.
The other indicies look at asking prices.
But, the figure to look at is the RATE of increase or decrease .. and this Halifax report says that the rate is increasing, so prices generally are falling at a faster rate than at any other time in history - doesn't matter if the average price is £5 or £10 or £150,000.
Most MultiMillion ££££ Houses do not appear in the Halifax and Nationwide figures as mortgages do not tend to be needed for them.
The Land Registry figures can only give an accurate indication on properties registered with them when sold for the second time.
The other indicies look at asking prices.
But, the figure to look at is the RATE of increase or decrease .. and this Halifax report says that the rate is increasing, so prices generally are falling at a faster rate than at any other time in history - doesn't matter if the average price is £5 or £10 or £150,000.
The Land Registry figures are 3 months out of date when published
05 December 2008, 06:08 PM
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05 December 2008, 06:22 PM
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Why give up?! There will always be some houses sold - if you get lucky and actually shift the place then you're onto a winner. Bank the cash (fixed rate accounts), and you'll be able to buy back a much better house in 2-3 years time for far less money!
05 December 2008, 06:34 PM
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05 December 2008, 06:52 PM
#44
I suspect its very hard to get a true indication of values and any drops - I hear that house sales were now only about 10% what they were 18 months ago.
As they can only take the figures for any drops from houses that have sold, then the figure is going to be skewed as a lot of these properties are going to be either repossessions, people desperate to sell, or hugely overpriced newbuilds that the developers are flogging cheap just to get some money back on.
So what they are really reporting is that the 10% of houses that have sold, have sold for less than they would have last month, which is a lot different than saying every house in the country has gone down by the same amount.
Lets face it, most people will just decide not to sell rather than take a lot less than they think the house is worth, and people arent going to sell for less than they paid unless they HAVE to.
Its quite easy to say 'house prices have dropped by 20%' or that they will be '40% cheaper in two years' but that doesnt mean you can go out and buy that house you want for 20% or 40% less than it was if nobody who owns those houses wants to sell them.
I suspect most owners who were thinking of selling just wont bother, or will leave their house on the market at whatever price they want, and if someone comes close to that price, only then will they sell.
Its just like the interest rates, the interest rate may well be very low, but if the lenders wont lend you money at a cheaper rate when you need to remortgage or for a FTB, then what difference does it make ?
As they can only take the figures for any drops from houses that have sold, then the figure is going to be skewed as a lot of these properties are going to be either repossessions, people desperate to sell, or hugely overpriced newbuilds that the developers are flogging cheap just to get some money back on.
So what they are really reporting is that the 10% of houses that have sold, have sold for less than they would have last month, which is a lot different than saying every house in the country has gone down by the same amount.
Lets face it, most people will just decide not to sell rather than take a lot less than they think the house is worth, and people arent going to sell for less than they paid unless they HAVE to.
Its quite easy to say 'house prices have dropped by 20%' or that they will be '40% cheaper in two years' but that doesnt mean you can go out and buy that house you want for 20% or 40% less than it was if nobody who owns those houses wants to sell them.
I suspect most owners who were thinking of selling just wont bother, or will leave their house on the market at whatever price they want, and if someone comes close to that price, only then will they sell.
Its just like the interest rates, the interest rate may well be very low, but if the lenders wont lend you money at a cheaper rate when you need to remortgage or for a FTB, then what difference does it make ?
05 December 2008, 07:44 PM
#45
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But that means the owners are deluding themselves about what the property is worth. It is surely obvious to anyone with an average IQ that house prices are worth massively less than the "awash with easy credit" late 2007 valuations.
Derivatives markets are predicting futher falls of 30-35% on top of the 15% falls which have happened already. They have a vested interest in making accurate predictions, so this carries some weight, unlike predictions from mortgage lenders etc (even whose predictions are still for big falls)
IMO prices will fall something like 50-60% from their 2007 peaks based on the current economic climate. This whole economic mess (and potential depression) is down the massive unsustainable debt bubble going POP!
Just look at what happened to house prices in Japan!
Derivatives markets are predicting futher falls of 30-35% on top of the 15% falls which have happened already. They have a vested interest in making accurate predictions, so this carries some weight, unlike predictions from mortgage lenders etc (even whose predictions are still for big falls)
IMO prices will fall something like 50-60% from their 2007 peaks based on the current economic climate. This whole economic mess (and potential depression) is down the massive unsustainable debt bubble going POP!
Just look at what happened to house prices in Japan!
You really do talk some crock. If my 4 bed house with garage and nice garden blah blah dropped 60% the local 2 bed houses would then be worth about £50k and that will NEVER happen as the demand would increase massively way before prices got anywhere near that.
I know what my house is worth compared to a year ago and it's about 6% down at the most.
05 December 2008, 08:08 PM
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You really do talk some crock. If my 4 bed house with garage and nice garden blah blah dropped 60% the local 2 bed houses would then be worth about £50k and that will NEVER happen as the demand would increase massively way before prices got anywhere near that.
I know what my house is worth compared to a year ago and it's about 6% down at the most.
You obviously have no understanding of the situation we are in, or just don't want to face up to reality. You didn't buy your house last year or something did you?If I have £50 in the bank, and want to buy something that costs £200, but nobody will lend me the money then I can't buy it.
This whole mess is basically down to banks having lent out FAR too much money which couldn't be repaid. House's are where much of this money went, and hence they inflated to massively unsustainable levels. Now the credit has gone the prices are going to deflate, massively. There can be no other way.
Last edited by Petem95; 05 December 2008 at 08:13 PM.
05 December 2008, 08:19 PM
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It's always the ones who've bought at the wrong time who adopt your stance. My girlfriend and I were being advised by so many people to buy at the early part of last year. We were (still are) sat on a significant deposit and vast swathes of 'opinions' suggested our rent was dead money. Thankfully we ignored their gobsmakingly naive advice and sat tight. The GF's sister didn't thoug, and she spunked away £250K on a townhouse in Cardiff...now worth about £200k. And what does she say? "We wanted a home, not an investment" or "it doesn't matter if we don't plan to move". Yeah? Bollocks! Her body language screams 'gutted'.
Sorry if I'm a tad pointed in this post, but I feel vindicated and, genuinely sorry for the people who listened to other people's 'opinions'.
05 December 2008, 08:38 PM
#48
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Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better! You obviously have no understanding of the situation we are in, or just don't want to face up to reality. You didn't buy your house last year or something did you?
If I have £50 in the bank, and want to buy something that costs £200, but nobody will lend me the money then I can't buy it.
This whole mess is basically down to banks having lent out FAR too much money which couldn't be repaid. House's are where much of this money went, and hence they inflated to massively unsustainable levels. Now the credit has gone the prices are going to deflate, massively. There can be no other way.
You obviously have no understanding of the situation we are in, or just don't want to face up to reality. You didn't buy your house last year or something did you?If I have £50 in the bank, and want to buy something that costs £200, but nobody will lend me the money then I can't buy it.
This whole mess is basically down to banks having lent out FAR too much money which couldn't be repaid. House's are where much of this money went, and hence they inflated to massively unsustainable levels. Now the credit has gone the prices are going to deflate, massively. There can be no other way.
And yes I did buy last year and it was worth every penny so you keep holding out for prices that are never going to come
Last edited by Bravo2zero_sps; 05 December 2008 at 08:40 PM.
05 December 2008, 09:21 PM
#49
The housing market is dead, it has been for nearly 1 year now. I work for persimmon homes NE and they have virtually no sales for next year and they also have virtually no staff as people just aren't buying. New house prices aren't going to drop much more but older houses have more scope.
05 December 2008, 09:40 PM
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Ooooops, I can now see why you are so dead against the suggestion that at least 15% has been wiped from your house - if you needed to sell.
I see your point about the 4 bed house never being the same price as a 2 bedroomed house - but I can assure you, the differentials can, and do, disappear!
When I bought my second house in 1986, there was a slight drop in the market (nowhere near as bad as this drop) - but, the effect was that I could buy a 3 bed detached house .... whereas I could not 6 months before!
The 1 bedroomed houses didn't drop to zero, of course, but they stayed at a certain level and simply did not sell ....... 1 beds, studios, flats were unsaleable as everyone could afford to buy 2 beds minimum.
The differentials were effectively wiped out, 3 bed detached = £50,000 ... studio flat = £35,000 of course they didn't sell.
The 3 beds went up quite quickly due to the demand and reached £105,000 in 1988 (just 2 years later) .... Studio flats were once again selling for £35,000 to those who could only afford that (the differentials had been restored).
But, never forget, differentials are not a given at all!
I see your point about the 4 bed house never being the same price as a 2 bedroomed house - but I can assure you, the differentials can, and do, disappear!
When I bought my second house in 1986, there was a slight drop in the market (nowhere near as bad as this drop) - but, the effect was that I could buy a 3 bed detached house .... whereas I could not 6 months before!
The 1 bedroomed houses didn't drop to zero, of course, but they stayed at a certain level and simply did not sell ....... 1 beds, studios, flats were unsaleable as everyone could afford to buy 2 beds minimum.
The differentials were effectively wiped out, 3 bed detached = £50,000 ... studio flat = £35,000 of course they didn't sell.
The 3 beds went up quite quickly due to the demand and reached £105,000 in 1988 (just 2 years later) .... Studio flats were once again selling for £35,000 to those who could only afford that (the differentials had been restored).
But, never forget, differentials are not a given at all!
Last edited by SunnySideUp; 05 December 2008 at 09:41 PM.
05 December 2008, 09:52 PM
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Ok, well this explains a lot. Don't get me wrong, I don't wish you to suffer economic hardship an/or lose your house, but there's nothing wrong with facing up to reality, even if it's not what you want it to be.
05 December 2008, 10:08 PM
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lewis is having a rebirth in the new, more clement climate, that SN currently is. A bit like the bacterial slime that crawls from the swamps of newly formed environments.
Amusingly, he claims we are both on his ignore list so we can talk about his techniques freely and without protest....
Amusingly, he claims we are both on his ignore list so we can talk about his techniques freely and without protest....
Last edited by unclebuck; 06 December 2008 at 04:14 PM.
05 December 2008, 10:51 PM
#56
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Even if I were to sell now my house based on current local prices is down 6% since I bought it and it's all relative anyway so what I ever wanted to buy to move to would also be cheaper than a year ago. If i've lost 6% and therefore some equity so what, i've made buckets of equity in the last 11 years and it will recover in the long term just as it historically always has.
As for your quip about percentages you are overlooking 60% off a low valued property is not a lot of money compared to 60% off a much greater valued property which is going to bring it down value wise much closer to the smaller valued house. That wont happen because a 4 bed house with a good garden and garage in a quiet cul de sac is always going to be worth considerably more than a 2 bed semi on an ex council estate.
05 December 2008, 11:07 PM
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Property market overview for Maidstone from Zoopla!
Detached houses here have dropped more in the last year in percentage terms than the others.
Property market overview for Sevenoaks from Zoopla!
Sevenoaks hanging on rather better, flats hammered more than detached.
Detached houses here have dropped more in the last year in percentage terms than the others.
Property market overview for Sevenoaks from Zoopla!
Sevenoaks hanging on rather better, flats hammered more than detached.
Last edited by john banks; 05 December 2008 at 11:10 PM.
05 December 2008, 11:13 PM
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My 2pworth,
A brand new village is being built close to where i live on an old ROF site near Chorley, 1000's of houses, Schools, Chemists, Village shops and a retirement village. We are talking massive employment and a ten year vision, Sadly the building has nearly stopped 5 years into the project and all has mostly gone quiet.
The taxi driver that we use for company work told me these facts this week, Loads of the houses that have been sold in the last couple of years are being repossessed for the following reasons, They were sold £99 deposit move in straight away fixed rate mortgage for 2 years, carpets, curtains, and appliances provided and we will take your old house in part-ex. However now is the time they need to get a new mortgage and they find that the house they bought is in negative equity and they don't have the shortfall in the bank (as most family's wouldn't) so cannot get a mortgage on that property of what they owe.
And this is why the banks are now reasoning on saying they will not repossess for up to two years in some cases, Why do they need this albatross around there necks, what is the point of repossessing a House that is worth less than owed and going down in value????? Of course IMHO.
Simpsons !
A brand new village is being built close to where i live on an old ROF site near Chorley, 1000's of houses, Schools, Chemists, Village shops and a retirement village. We are talking massive employment and a ten year vision, Sadly the building has nearly stopped 5 years into the project and all has mostly gone quiet.
The taxi driver that we use for company work told me these facts this week, Loads of the houses that have been sold in the last couple of years are being repossessed for the following reasons, They were sold £99 deposit move in straight away fixed rate mortgage for 2 years, carpets, curtains, and appliances provided and we will take your old house in part-ex. However now is the time they need to get a new mortgage and they find that the house they bought is in negative equity and they don't have the shortfall in the bank (as most family's wouldn't) so cannot get a mortgage on that property of what they owe.
And this is why the banks are now reasoning on saying they will not repossess for up to two years in some cases, Why do they need this albatross around there necks, what is the point of repossessing a House that is worth less than owed and going down in value????? Of course IMHO.
Simpsons !
05 December 2008, 11:22 PM
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John i've looked on Rightmove for every property that is for sale in our village and surrounding area and what is for sale around the same size/condition etc and seen some that are the same build properties as some I looked at when we bought ours and those properties asking prices are only 6% down compared to what they were August last year when we started looking as I remember what they were going for back then.
For example one that was £315k August last year is now £295k. That is a 6.3% drop in asking price/valuation. What someone pays/seller accepts no one can account for.
For example one that was £315k August last year is now £295k. That is a 6.3% drop in asking price/valuation. What someone pays/seller accepts no one can account for.