Halifax - House Price Fall Increasing
#63
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bravo2zero sps, if you look at asking prices you'll have a bias towards the overpriced stuff that isn't selling. If you look at land registry figs, you'll not have the auctions/repos.
I'm looking at forced sales on the margins as my lead indicator of where I think the general market is going as the very low volumes don't give clear information. Some of these would give good rental yields and sensible income multiples even now, but not much terribly desirable here yet.
I'm not yet house hunting until key things happen such as many people still believing that their area is immune. Otherwise it is a waste of time trying to do a deal with these people. There would be a massive gulf between what I would be willing to pay and what many would sell it to me for at present. As a cash buyer the deal will be real when it will actually be done with no messing about with bank lending problems. The only thing I really need to look for is the IMHO inevitable return of inflation that will be absolutely massive once the money supply gets pumped up to prevent deflation. If I don't buy a house at that point I'll be buying shares, index linked gilts, gold instead until I think houses are near a bottom. There will be little hurry to pick up a house, time will produce the capitulation I await.
I'm looking at forced sales on the margins as my lead indicator of where I think the general market is going as the very low volumes don't give clear information. Some of these would give good rental yields and sensible income multiples even now, but not much terribly desirable here yet.
I'm not yet house hunting until key things happen such as many people still believing that their area is immune. Otherwise it is a waste of time trying to do a deal with these people. There would be a massive gulf between what I would be willing to pay and what many would sell it to me for at present. As a cash buyer the deal will be real when it will actually be done with no messing about with bank lending problems. The only thing I really need to look for is the IMHO inevitable return of inflation that will be absolutely massive once the money supply gets pumped up to prevent deflation. If I don't buy a house at that point I'll be buying shares, index linked gilts, gold instead until I think houses are near a bottom. There will be little hurry to pick up a house, time will produce the capitulation I await.
#64
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Going to look at a bungalow tomorrow on the south coast.
Came on the market at over £300k 2 months ago - now asking £210k - is generating some interest according to the Agent and I believe him. I thought it was a misprint!
Forced sales are where the real market is at, and it's falling rapidly and that is from the coal face, where sales are actually happening - not overpriced houses with dreamer vendors going nowhere.
Came on the market at over £300k 2 months ago - now asking £210k - is generating some interest according to the Agent and I believe him. I thought it was a misprint!
Forced sales are where the real market is at, and it's falling rapidly and that is from the coal face, where sales are actually happening - not overpriced houses with dreamer vendors going nowhere.
Last edited by SunnySideUp; 06 December 2008 at 02:58 PM.
#65
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According to those in denial - and of course Nu Liebor 'ministers' everything will be 'back to normal' in about 18 months or so.
They are clearly choosing to ignore the evidence of the statistics staring them in the face. A few of us one here had been predicting a crash on this scale for a number of years. Always accused of being 'doom mongers' of course. Everyone is facing a 'nu reality' now the liar McBroon's house of cards has collapsed.
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They are clearly choosing to ignore the evidence of the statistics staring them in the face. A few of us one here had been predicting a crash on this scale for a number of years. Always accused of being 'doom mongers' of course. Everyone is facing a 'nu reality' now the liar McBroon's house of cards has collapsed.
![Confused](images/smilies/confused.gif)
You 'few' should stop being a smart *****, no one likes a smart **** you know
![Big Grin](images/smilies/biggrin.gif)
#66
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Predicting a downturn or crash 'for a number of years' is not clever
. As economic trends are cyclical, and always have been, it's about as clever as predicting that the sun will rise tomorrow.
You 'few' should stop being a smart *****, no one likes a smart **** you know![Big Grin](images/smilies/biggrin.gif)
![Confused](images/smilies/confused.gif)
You 'few' should stop being a smart *****, no one likes a smart **** you know
![Big Grin](images/smilies/biggrin.gif)
Now they are being fed the lie that 'everything will be back to normal' in 18 months. (whatever 'normal' is supposed to be - borrowing more than you can afford to payback I suppose) And guess what, they believe that too.
![Whatever Anim](images/smilies/Whatever_anim.gif)
I agree that there is nothing 'smart' about understanding the truth - just stupidity on the part of the majority too stupid to see through the tissue of lies they are fed by 'government'.
#67
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House is fine Sir, just needs a bit of underpinning!!
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