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Whats wrong with this gambling system?

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Old 20 March 2009, 11:19 AM
  #31  
Deep Singh
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Originally Posted by Saxo Boy
Tbh, I've not loaded up casino software of any kind in years so I simply have no clue what the table maximum is. It would take me just as long to download and check as it would you Suffice to say that it won't be enough. During my coin flipping exercise it didn't take long before you were getting strings of 8-12 of the same side in a row. Maybe you should see if they have any penny or play money roulette tables (I have no idea if they do). That way you can play around and experiment on the cheap.

As for the RNG's I personally would have zero issue with any half-way reputable company. I mean, why rig something and risk being busted when that very thing will give you a steady and consistent income flow when 100% honest.
I wasn't asking you to download software on my behalf, I thought you may already know, as a seasoned gambler.

What then for example is the maximum table bet in a real casino? What I'm trying find out is, how many loses in a row would it take (after doubling plus adding £x for profit) to hit the table maximum?

Thanks
Old 20 March 2009, 01:37 PM
  #32  
darts_aint_sport
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In Las Vegas a few years ago I saw minimum bets of $10 and maximums of around $500, so 10, 20, 40 80, 160, 320 and you're bust.
Old 20 March 2009, 01:58 PM
  #33  
NotoriousREV
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I use this system now and again to raise £100 or so for a night out or whatever. There are 2 types of limit to watch: table limit and spot limit. You'll hit the spot limit first. For example, I tend to play $1 stake with a $500 pot and the spot limits are usually $100 ($300 table limit) meaning you can only double up 7 times. Believe me, you hit this limit a lot. If I'm feeling adventurous, I'll play odd/even top half/bottom half and red/black all at the same time.

Most times I finish "up", sometimes I lose my entire pot and sometimes I finish back where I started. I have a set of rules that I try to stick to which includes setting top and bottom limits when I'll just walk away (usually). When I'm on a winning day I can make $150 in about 20 mins but it's a pretty stressful 20 mins.
Old 20 March 2009, 02:06 PM
  #34  
Gav
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Originally Posted by Saxo Boy
^^^^ If that really is the case and he has an edge from his system then why isn't he doing it online playing multiple sites at once. Playing say 4 tables with zero animation, etc he could probably get through 100+ spins per minute. Even 4h of that would yield 24,000 being more than a normal table probably sees in a several years. Even if his system only had an expectation of £0.01 per spin he'd make £240 per 4h or £60/hr tax free. You'll forgive me for being a little skeptical

For it to work it requires more than one person It was a while ago i read it so forgive me for being vauge but i think there was 13 of them doing it, hence "thirteen" against the bank!! I'll did it out and see.

BTW, i've just seen the PM you sent me ages ago, long story and apologies for not replying
Old 20 March 2009, 02:51 PM
  #35  
LG John
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I wasn't asking you to download software on my behalf, I thought you may already know, as a seasoned gambler.
Lol, I think you quite badly misunderstand me sir I play poker for a living....but I'm actually not a gambler! I have to force myself to play every hour I do, just like a job. I only play poker because I have an edge....much like the house with their roulette tables. I never feel compelled to bet on a horse, tennis, a football game or stick even £1 in a fruit machine. I hardly ever set foot in a casino and when I do I very rarely go near anything other than a poker table. I'm the guy that was in vegas for a week this time last year and aside from playing one poker tournament that lasted a few hours I spent less than 2h in the whole time I was there gambling. I spent nearly the entire trip drooling over the birds

In short, if you want to discuss probability, strategy and theory....then I'm your man. However, if you want experience of playing the casino games then I'm as much in the dark as you are!
Old 20 March 2009, 03:00 PM
  #36  
Deep Singh
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Originally Posted by Saxo Boy
Lol, I think you quite badly misunderstand me sir I play poker for a living....but I'm actually not a gambler! I have to force myself to play every hour I do, just like a job. I only play poker because I have an edge....much like the house with their roulette tables. I never feel compelled to bet on a horse, tennis, a football game or stick even £1 in a fruit machine. I hardly ever set foot in a casino and when I do I very rarely go near anything other than a poker table. I'm the guy that was in vegas for a week this time last year and aside from playing one poker tournament that lasted a few hours I spent less than 2h in the whole time I was there gambling. I spent nearly the entire trip drooling over the birds

In short, if you want to discuss probability, strategy and theory....then I'm your man. However, if you want experience of playing the casino games then I'm as much in the dark as you are!

Whatever!
Old 20 March 2009, 03:03 PM
  #37  
Deep Singh
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Originally Posted by NotoriousREV
I use this system now and again to raise £100 or so for a night out or whatever. There are 2 types of limit to watch: table limit and spot limit. You'll hit the spot limit first. For example, I tend to play $1 stake with a $500 pot and the spot limits are usually $100 ($300 table limit) meaning you can only double up 7 times. Believe me, you hit this limit a lot. If I'm feeling adventurous, I'll play odd/even top half/bottom half and red/black all at the same time.

Most times I finish "up", sometimes I lose my entire pot and sometimes I finish back where I started. I have a set of rules that I try to stick to which includes setting top and bottom limits when I'll just walk away (usually). When I'm on a winning day I can make $150 in about 20 mins but it's a pretty stressful 20 mins.
Sorry, but whats the difference between a 'spot' limit and table limit

Thanks
Old 20 March 2009, 03:07 PM
  #38  
LG John
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Lol, seriously. You'll struggle to find a person less willing to 'gamble'. You know what it's like when you have mates round and their is some footy on then the "bet you a fiver Team A scores next" starts. I just don't get involved. I hate gambling on blind luck where there is no edge. Don't get me wrong...if I found a way to play roulette or blackjack, etc with a 50.5% edge then I'd probably spend every waking hour doing it. Until then, I'm just not interested!

I know to Joe Public it seems absurd for me to say that I'm not a gambler when I play poker for a living but think of it like this. Casino's are a business; they do not rely no luck. At the end of the year if they've had enough trade through the doors to cover their staffing costs, etc then they will make a profit. They will always make a profit from their tables. It's much the same for me. By then end of 2009 I will be up for all my poker play. It's virtually impossible for me not to be. Therefore, it's not gambling....it's business
Old 20 March 2009, 03:12 PM
  #39  
Deep Singh
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You're probably in the bookies right now with a roll up hanging out of your mouth and a folded copy of the Sun under your arm! I know your sort!


Only winding you up Saxo, point taken
Old 20 March 2009, 03:18 PM
  #40  
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Old 20 March 2009, 03:25 PM
  #41  
Martin2005
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Instead of gambling and hoping to get lucky, play poker, a game of skill, where the good players have the edge. It's a far far more reliable way of making money in the long run.
Just play basic ABC poker and play within the odds and you'll win at at low to moderate limits...and you can take that to the bank
Old 20 March 2009, 03:40 PM
  #42  
Deep Singh
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Originally Posted by Martin2005
Instead of gambling and hoping to get lucky, play poker, a game of skill, where the good players have the edge. It's a far far more reliable way of making money in the long run.
Just play basic ABC poker and play within the odds and you'll win at at low to moderate limits...and you can take that to the bank
To play poker would take time and effort to learn the game, I don't have that sort of time or spare brain capacity

Secondly, I can't believe your last statement, ie that I (or anybody else) would defo win, that would mean that all poker tables lose money
Old 20 March 2009, 03:42 PM
  #43  
Deep Singh
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Saxo, as a professional poker player, do you mind if ask how much you make from it a year?
Old 20 March 2009, 03:45 PM
  #44  
Martin2005
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Originally Posted by Deep Singh
To play poker would take time and effort to learn the game, I don't have that sort of time or spare brain capacity

Secondly, I can't believe your last statement, ie that I (or anybody else) would defo win, that would mean that all poker tables lose money
No the house ALWAYS wins in Poker because of the 'rake'. But poker is different because you are not playing the house you are playing other players. Most players at low to moderate stakes do not get the basic concepts of the games and are therefore long term losers, they exist to give their money to people who know what they are doing.
It is a mathmatical certainty that if you play the right side of the odds in poker you will win, as you (to a large extent) neutralise the 'luck' element of the game.
Old 20 March 2009, 03:52 PM
  #45  
Martin2005
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Originally Posted by Deep Singh
Saxo, as a professional poker player, do you mind if ask how much you make from it a year?
To give you an idea as an experienced mid stakes player (circa 20 hours a week).

I made about $12k last year, mainly from SnG's and Tourneys, with a bit of cash play now and then.

Obviously not enough a high enough earn rate to turn pro on, but the extra income is very handy.

I'd be interested to know how Saxos quest is going too.
Old 20 March 2009, 07:01 PM
  #46  
LG John
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Saxo, as a professional poker player, do you mind if ask how much you make from it a year?
Well, it really depends on how good you are and how much you work at it. My first year was really difficult as I ran bad, which made me play bad and in turn made me play woeful hours. That said, I still banked around the equivalent of a £25k take home salary from playing a pathetic average of 12 hours a week!

This year I'm improved as a player, more settled and working harder. Even at that I only work around 4 hours a day for 5 days of the week. So far in 2009 I've made around $15,000 which is around £10,500 for 2.5 months work. At circa £4000 a month that's equivalent of around £60k pa I think. There is still a lot of room for improvements both in terms of hours and as a player so hopefully I'll continue to improve throughout the year. I should also have sufficient bankroll to allow me to try and move up a level later in the year as well.

My life hourly rate since I turned professional a year ago is around $55 (£37.5) per hour. I made a series of fairly drastic changes to my game in mid-december and have played 115,000 hands since then running at around $75 (£51) per hour. It's all good I guess, can't complain.

Thing you have to understand with poker is that the game comes naturally and easily to 0.001% of the population and such players can go from zeros to hero's in a matter of months and make a fortune. You'll read/hear about such guys all of the time and they make it seem so easy. For the vast majority of people even making money at all at poker is quite an achievement and takes a lot of work. It's a very low percentage of players that are capable of making a living from the game. It's not easy, I've played and studied the game for years and year and still have sooooooooooooo much to learn and so many personal demons to conquer.
Old 20 March 2009, 07:03 PM
  #47  
NotoriousREV
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Originally Posted by Deep Singh
Sorry, but whats the difference between a 'spot' limit and table limit

Thanks
Spot limit is the max you can put on a particular bet i.e. red or 23 or whatever. The table limit is the max for the whole table. I'm specifically talking about online casinos and their private tables.
Old 20 March 2009, 08:02 PM
  #48  
Luan Pra bang
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The double up system is pretty old and an instinctive one to go for when playing roulette but as has been said most places, online included have a maximum bet limit. I have been in some places with no limit tables but the mimimum bet was about $100 us dollars. I have used this system for years to try and keep losses to a minimum but somtimes it works and on one notable occasion I had 8 red followed by 0 followed by 2 more red. The wheel has more chance of punishing you the longer you play. I have never had a real big loss on this system though as if you are patient you can make it back, its just the tediousness of every betting run starting at $1 then going up to the table limit. If you do too it too much the casino gets the right arsehole as well.
Old 20 March 2009, 11:05 PM
  #49  
Deep Singh
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Martin, thanks

saxo, why don't you just play 10 hours a day? At your current rate of earnings that would give you a mega income.

Rev, thanks

Luan, if there are tables with no maximum, then its a sure fire way of winning isn't it? As long as you go with say £250k in your pocket and start with £500 bets, even if you triple after each losing bet you will walk out a few £k richer. Do this everyday and you have a healthy income (tax free)

Where are these no limit tables then? ( Runs off to remortgage house)
Old 21 March 2009, 10:33 AM
  #50  
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deep

i think you slighlty misunderstand Saxoboy, he obviously treats his Poker Playing (hestitate to say gambling) as a job, which like most jobs that are of a cerebral nature and require skill you cant do for 10 hours on the spin

i would imagine Saxo is trying to up his hourly win rate, rather than just work longer, as whats the point in that

i work the same basic 8 hr day that worked 15 years ago, but basing it on an hourly rate, I just get paid a hell of alot more per hour than I did

Last edited by hodgy0_2; 21 March 2009 at 10:35 AM.
Old 21 March 2009, 12:00 PM
  #51  
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saxo, why don't you just play 10 hours a day? At your current rate of earnings that would give you a mega income.
Glad you asked...and knew someone would.

From memory you are a GP. I presume you work fairly healthy hours and that throughout the day many patients come in with all variety of ailments. Many of them probably only require an auto-pilot response. Someone comes in and complains of a hacking cough that won't go away. You ask some standard questions and listen to their chest. You perhaps prescribe something to help and send them on their way. All in all probably not overly difficult...the majority of your work was done in the early parts of your career building up your competency with many years of study and then subsequent experience. I'm sure, as with any job, it can become very hectic and stressful and that perhaps even daily someone will come in with a complaint that stumps you or requires further research. On the whole though for large parts of your working day you can probably, 'go through the motions' to a degree and for equally large parts you'll be between patients, making a cup of coffee, taking a p*ss, whatever.

At this point I'd like to stress I'm not in anyway trying to belittle the work of a doctor. It's one of the professions I respect the most but the bottom line is that with nearly any traditional job the work efficiency rate is actually very low.

Poker on the other hand is different. I play 12-14 tables at the same time and this requires me to be making decisions basically every second or so and every one of them counts. An acceptable and solid win-rate would be 5x the value of a big blind per every 100 hands played. To put that in context: you play a cash game with your mates with a 50p small blind and a £1 big blind. It would probably take 2.5h in a live environment to get through 100 hands. If, on average, after that time you have made £5 then you've done quite well. Now imagine, if you were making tiny errors on seemingly irrelevant small hands and you multiply them up....how much do you think they will harm that paltry £5 profit over a 2.5h playing period. When I play I get through 100 hands far, far quicker but the principals are the same. I can't make even small errors regularly or they will seriously harm my win rate. For that reason I have to concentrate hard on every hand and every decision, and if I play for 2 hours straight then my efficiency rate is basically 100% for 2h straight. To go to the toilet I have to activate my 'timers', run like hell, squeeze it out and run back to quickly catch hands before they autofold. Hygiene is not high on my priority during this so you'd want to give my mouse a wide berth

So, the simple answer why I don't play more hours is 'burn out'. As it is I get through 3000-4000 hands a day and that's not too bad. I'm usually mentally exhausted by the end of the day. Also, whilst I might only spend 4h a day actually playing there is probably not far off as many hours again studying, discussing hands with peers, reviewing my database, and reading and learning about poker. All that said, there are some sicko people out there that can and do knock out 10,000+ hands a day for 6-7 days a week. Most of them have zero life beyond poker and live in their mum and dad's house. I have a life and I play poker to hopefully make more money than I couldn't in an ordinary job and to have complete freedom and flexibility regarding when I work. I don't particularly enjoy the game so it's very much a job to me. I guess, in some ways, it would be better if I loved poker and was addicted to it because, like you say, as a winning player if I smashed out massive hours/volume then I'd be loaded. I made circa £1500 per month tax free in year 1. My goal this year is £3000 per month and I'm in good shape to do it. I think that's a pretty decent achievement if I make it and there will still be plenty of room for improvement beyond that.

Hope all of that helps you understand things a little better
Old 21 March 2009, 12:16 PM
  #52  
LG John
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i would imagine Saxo is trying to up his hourly win rate, rather than just work longer, as whats the point in that
This is it in a nutshell. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be one of the guys playing the highest of stakes and killing the games for the largest sums of money. However, most people (nearly all people) simply don't have the ability to achieve that. To assume that you do would be like all Division 2 footballers assuming one day they'll be as successful as Ronaldo! Yet, oddly, the vast majority of poker players probably assume they'll one day be earning the big bucks.

I'm far more levelheaded and realistic about it. Currently I earn in the region of $70 per hour. That's good enough for the next year or so but I certainly don't want to play 4-5h of poker a day for the next 30+ years. Fvck that!!!!! My goal however would be to get to a stage within the next 2-3 years where I can earn at around $300 per hour. At that stage even my modest hours would bank me $300,000 per year which is currently around £200,000 (die pound, die ). A few years of that buys me a mortgage free 4/5 bedroom house in a nice area and then even just 5-10h of poker a week gives me a very substantial disposable income for someone with no mortgage.

To go from $70 to $300 per hour probably doesn't sound that hard. But it is. Very hard! I may never achieve it to be honest but I'll give it my best shot. I would be brilliant to be as good as retired by 35 but still bringing in £3-4k a month with no mortgage.
Old 21 March 2009, 12:20 PM
  #53  
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Pah, the SUN bingo is where it's all at.
Old 21 March 2009, 12:42 PM
  #54  
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Why is it tax free

TX.

Originally Posted by Saxo Boy
I made circa £1500 per month tax free in year 1. My goal this year is £3000 per month ...
Old 21 March 2009, 04:37 PM
  #55  
LG John
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Poker or any form of gambling is not a trade or business and therefore even if it's your sole source of income you do not pay any tax on it.
Old 21 March 2009, 05:20 PM
  #56  
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ARGGGGG why did I read this thread earlier, I have been on Party poker all day since and lost.
Old 21 March 2009, 05:54 PM
  #57  
Luan Pra bang
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Originally Posted by Deep Singh
Martin, thanks


Luan, if there are tables with no maximum, then its a sure fire way of winning isn't it? As long as you go with say £250k in your pocket and start with £500 bets, even if you triple after each losing bet you will walk out a few £k richer. Do this everyday and you have a healthy income (tax free)

Where are these no limit tables then? ( Runs off to remortgage house)
THere are places online that have a 10k limit but remember that usually playing this system you double up on odd and evens, red or black and 1-17 and 17-35 etc. THe only no limit table I saw I was in Marrakesh but every casino reserves the right to stop you gambleing at any point if they believe that you are using a system that will beat the casino, this refers to counting cards in black jack and doubleing up in roulette.
Old 22 March 2009, 09:45 AM
  #58  
Deep Singh
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Saxo, I'm not a GP, I'm a hospital specialist. However still I am often on 'autopilot', when the really acute situations happen and concentration is 100% and making minute by minute multiple decisions each and any of which could result in the loss of life, within a couple of hours I feel very drained.

After 3 hours I am fatigued and know for sure my decision making is only say 80% as good as it was at the beginning.

Thankfully these situations don't usually last longer than this, either things have got better or the worst has happened

So, I take your point I couldn't keep that level of concentration/stress for 10 hours a day, I would have a fecking heart attack
Old 22 March 2009, 11:21 AM
  #59  
mart360
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Lol
for any of you to coin a phrase....

"has the penny not dropped yet"?

All of the comments " my mates addicted", i use this system, play this way....etc...

none have actually said...
hang on, if it was as easy, methodical, sure fire, i'd not be posting on here, but sitting

on a beach somewhere living the life of luxury..

The only one's winning are the ones who are taking money OFF you,

How may of you, can hand on heart, say that year on year, youve made enough to

retire, live very comforatbly, with no worries..?? (using gambling as your main method of income?)

Mart
Old 22 March 2009, 01:55 PM
  #60  
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I couldn't keep that level of concentration/stress for 10 hours a day, I would have a fecking heart attack
Look on the bright side.....at least you'd be having heart failure in the best possible place


Quick Reply: Whats wrong with this gambling system?



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