derren brown predicts the lottery
10 September 2009, 12:18 AM
#31
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The odds of hitting 6 numbers at random in the lottery are astronomical to start with.
to say he could predict them and actually do it, ???
well put it this way, if i could predict lottery numbers at random and have them come up,
A) i wouldnt share them with anyone.
B) why hasnt he done this before and made himself a millionare?
Mart
to say he could predict them and actually do it, ???
well put it this way, if i could predict lottery numbers at random and have them come up,
A) i wouldnt share them with anyone.
B) why hasnt he done this before and made himself a millionare?
Mart
10 September 2009, 11:09 AM
#34
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Dave
PS: I think that's how they do it isn't it? Anyway, best check my numbers now. Damn. Not even one number! But NO-ONE won the jackpot so Mr Magician didn't buy a ticket!
10 September 2009, 11:47 AM
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Ah. Here is the answer in *longhand* from Calculate Your Chance of Winning the Lottery - WebMath
I could never get the odds they said but I keep forgetting the order. Still, I'm sure I've seen the odds quoted as 1 in 76 (ish) million .....
Enjoy being back in 'A' level stats......
Dave
You want to calculate your odds at winning the lottery given:
* You must choose a sequence of 6 numbers correctly to win.
* The lowest number you can choose is 1
* The highest number you can choose is 49
* A given number can only be chosen once per try (per lottery ticket, etc.)
When you select your 1st number, you have 49 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 49 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 49 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/49 or 0.020408.)
When you select your 2nd number, you have 48 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 48 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 48 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/48 or 0.020833.)
When you select your 3rd number, you have 47 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 47 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 47 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/47 or 0.021277.)
When you select your 4th number, you have 46 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 46 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 46 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/46 or 0.021739.)
When you select your 5th number, you have 45 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 45 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 45 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/45 or 0.022222.)
When you select your 6th number, you have 44 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 44 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 44 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/44 or 0.022727.)
In order to win, you have to pick the first number right AND the second number right AND the third number right, etc. In the language of statistics, AND usually means to multiply.
So, to figure out your odds of winning, multiply together all of the fractional odds of picking a given number correctly, as stated by the red fractions above.
1/49 × 1/48 × 1/47 × 1/46 × 1/45 × 1/44 = 1/10068347520
So, at this point, your odds of winning are 1 in 10068347520. But, since you can choose your winning numbers in any order, your chances of winning are somewhat better than this. Your chance betters by the number of different ways that a sequence of 6 numbers can be written down, which for 6 numbers is 6! (6 factorial) or 720. Divide 10068347520 by 720 to account for this, to get 13983816.
In other words, there are 720 different ways that the 6 numbers you choose can be filled out on your lottery ticket--if you choose your 6 numbers correctly, any of these ways will make a winning ticket.
That's it! You have a
1 in 13,983,816
chance of winning the lottery you described.
I could never get the odds they said but I keep forgetting the order. Still, I'm sure I've seen the odds quoted as 1 in 76 (ish) million .....
Enjoy being back in 'A' level stats......
Dave
You want to calculate your odds at winning the lottery given:
* You must choose a sequence of 6 numbers correctly to win.
* The lowest number you can choose is 1
* The highest number you can choose is 49
* A given number can only be chosen once per try (per lottery ticket, etc.)
When you select your 1st number, you have 49 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 49 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 49 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/49 or 0.020408.)
When you select your 2nd number, you have 48 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 48 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 48 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/48 or 0.020833.)
When you select your 3rd number, you have 47 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 47 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 47 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/47 or 0.021277.)
When you select your 4th number, you have 46 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 46 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 46 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/46 or 0.021739.)
When you select your 5th number, you have 45 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 45 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 45 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/45 or 0.022222.)
When you select your 6th number, you have 44 numbers to choose from, and...
...a 1 in 44 chance of picking the right one.
(Mathematically, 1 in 44 is represented by the numerical fraction 1/44 or 0.022727.)
In order to win, you have to pick the first number right AND the second number right AND the third number right, etc. In the language of statistics, AND usually means to multiply.
So, to figure out your odds of winning, multiply together all of the fractional odds of picking a given number correctly, as stated by the red fractions above.
1/49 × 1/48 × 1/47 × 1/46 × 1/45 × 1/44 = 1/10068347520
So, at this point, your odds of winning are 1 in 10068347520. But, since you can choose your winning numbers in any order, your chances of winning are somewhat better than this. Your chance betters by the number of different ways that a sequence of 6 numbers can be written down, which for 6 numbers is 6! (6 factorial) or 720. Divide 10068347520 by 720 to account for this, to get 13983816.
In other words, there are 720 different ways that the 6 numbers you choose can be filled out on your lottery ticket--if you choose your 6 numbers correctly, any of these ways will make a winning ticket.
That's it! You have a
1 in 13,983,816
chance of winning the lottery you described.
10 September 2009, 12:04 PM
#39
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I think Derren Brown is great but of course it's a trick - he always claims his illusions are just that - illusions, suggestions etc. For example, I love the way he de-mystifys psychics - they are just very skilled audience readers.
As the numbers came up, he wrote them down on a piece of paper. I think somehow what he was writing on the paper is related to what was on the ***** - if you noticed the numbers on the ***** were handwritten. So, and I have no idea how, the paper was linked to the *****. As the numbers came up his writing was transferred to the *****. I'd like to see how on Friday.
Edit: It seems they weren't hand written at all. Interesting ....
As the numbers came up, he wrote them down on a piece of paper. I think somehow what he was writing on the paper is related to what was on the ***** - if you noticed the numbers on the ***** were handwritten. So, and I have no idea how, the paper was linked to the *****. As the numbers came up his writing was transferred to the *****. I'd like to see how on Friday.
Edit: It seems they weren't hand written at all. Interesting ....
Last edited by Ravster; 10 September 2009 at 01:16 PM.
10 September 2009, 12:20 PM
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10 September 2009, 12:27 PM
#41
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Wouldnt it be a better trick to tell us all the numbers then we could all win the lottery for one night?
Magic on TV is never magic, just TV trickery. *Yawn*
Magic on TV is never magic, just TV trickery. *Yawn*
10 September 2009, 12:48 PM
#43
Remind us again what you do for a living ?
10 September 2009, 12:49 PM
#45
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You lot must be a right load of simpletons if you can`t work out how he did it, i have to go out now but i`ll be back on about 10-30 on friday and i`ll tell you then how its done. I`m wetting myself laughing here at how thick you lot are.
Last edited by Borat_Drives_A_Scooby; 10 September 2009 at 12:51 PM.
10 September 2009, 01:09 PM
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Perhaps it's just people who fancy a little chance of not having to worry about money or those who enjoy a little "flutter" and the chance of not having to drag their ***** out of bed each morning, for most its a diversion, a bit of fun and most people arent expecting to win the jackpot and aware of the odds, I won a couple of grand once so cant complain, plus there is the charitable aspect and a lot of money has been raised for various causes.
Remind us again what you do for a living ?
Remind us again what you do for a living ?
Agree with the rest - If it was real why not make it spectacular and show the numbers before hand. Answer because its a trick. Also if you watch some of his earlier stuff where he plays poker - if hes so good at reading people why isnt he playing the pro's and clearing up?
Simon
10 September 2009, 01:10 PM
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it will turn out to be mirrors -- i.e. the simplest explanation
My older brother was on a show with him a few years ago when he played serveral Chess Grandmasters and managed to beat one and draw a few (my brother is a chess grandmaster btw)
how did he do it simpple -- he played each GM in turn mimicking the previous players moves -- so in effect the GM on the left was playing the GM on the right
My older brother was on a show with him a few years ago when he played serveral Chess Grandmasters and managed to beat one and draw a few (my brother is a chess grandmaster btw)
how did he do it simpple -- he played each GM in turn mimicking the previous players moves -- so in effect the GM on the left was playing the GM on the right
Simon
10 September 2009, 01:19 PM
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It's so obvious; you can't affect the BBC feed so that has to be digitally superimposed onto a background shot.
You simply film Derren 14 million times, once for each combination of *****. Then as the BBC announces the results you show that film with the BBC live superimposed on the monitor
You simply film Derren 14 million times, once for each combination of *****. Then as the BBC announces the results you show that film with the BBC live superimposed on the monitor
10 September 2009, 01:19 PM
#50
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player 1 moves e4, you start by playing e4 to player 2, player 2 replies with d4, so you go bact to player 1 and reply d4, and so on and so on
in reality player 1 and 2 are playing each other (and they are Grandmasters) -- you are just acting as a proxy
but to each player you are just playing them -- or so they believe
in reality player 1 and 2 are playing each other (and they are Grandmasters) -- you are just acting as a proxy
but to each player you are just playing them -- or so they believe
10 September 2009, 01:31 PM
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@hutton_d, another way of looking at the odds is that the first ball drawn can be any of the 6 you have selected and you're still in with a chance. So the calculation becomes 6/49*5/48*4/47*3/46*2/45*1/44 = 14m
10 September 2009, 01:31 PM
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Perhaps it's just people who fancy a little chance of not having to worry about money or those who enjoy a little "flutter" and the chance of not having to drag their ***** out of bed each morning, for most its a diversion, a bit of fun and most people arent expecting to win the jackpot and aware of the odds, I won a couple of grand once so cant complain, plus there is the charitable aspect and a lot of money has been raised for various causes.
Remind us again what you do for a living ?
Remind us again what you do for a living ?
To compare that to playing the lottery is wholly wrong and why I find it so amusing that 99% of people I meet assume I'm a compulsive gambler that can't get enough action. Nothing could be further from the truth! The reality is that I very rarely play the lottery, don't play slots, don't play any casino games, or engage in any other 'normal' gambling activities. This is simply because a) I don't have an edge in these games and b) I get no particular thrill from winning or losing if I do play them. The slight exception is that I sometimes put on a lottery ticket for the the following reason: "it's just people who fancy a little chance of not having to worry about money or those who enjoy a little "flutter" and the chance of not having to drag their ***** out of bed each morning"
Regardless of the fact that it's a long term losing proposition, winning just once will completely change your life.....and I get that. But I'm under no illusions, it's a mugs game.
My comment still stands though. The business model of the lottery is one of leverage. People will happily do without £1-5 per week for the 'chance' of having their lives changed. Some people, such as yourself (and me), clearly do this knowing that it's a losing proposition. However, others will put on lottery tickets for a whole host of reasons (feelings, because they've seen recurring numbers that week, etc, etc).
10 September 2009, 02:00 PM
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Split screen.
The left hand side of the screen was a static image, as the numbers were drawn a production assistant wrote the numbers on the *****. When he finished, the static shot was replaced with an identical live one. Notice how he never left the right hnad side of the screen, until after the draw? That's because if he had, he'd have vanished.
That's my guess.
The left hand side of the screen was a static image, as the numbers were drawn a production assistant wrote the numbers on the *****. When he finished, the static shot was replaced with an identical live one. Notice how he never left the right hnad side of the screen, until after the draw? That's because if he had, he'd have vanished.
That's my guess.
10 September 2009, 02:07 PM
#56
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Split screen.
The left hand side of the screen was a static image, as the numbers were drawn a production assistant wrote the numbers on the *****. When he finished, the static shot was replaced with an identical live one. Notice how he never left the right hnad side of the screen, until after the draw? That's because if he had, he'd have vanished.
That's my guess.
The left hand side of the screen was a static image, as the numbers were drawn a production assistant wrote the numbers on the *****. When he finished, the static shot was replaced with an identical live one. Notice how he never left the right hnad side of the screen, until after the draw? That's because if he had, he'd have vanished.
That's my guess.
10 September 2009, 06:49 PM
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Split screen.
The left hand side of the screen was a static image, as the numbers were drawn a production assistant wrote the numbers on the *****. When he finished, the static shot was replaced with an identical live one. Notice how he never left the right hnad side of the screen, until after the draw? That's because if he had, he'd have vanished.
That's my guess.
The left hand side of the screen was a static image, as the numbers were drawn a production assistant wrote the numbers on the *****. When he finished, the static shot was replaced with an identical live one. Notice how he never left the right hnad side of the screen, until after the draw? That's because if he had, he'd have vanished.
That's my guess.
Why didn't he buy a ticket then if he wasn't bothered aboutthe money just donate it to charity or for more of a dramatic effect, rip the ticket up after the numbers were shown
