Britain is officially stuck in its longest ever recession ...
25 October 2009, 11:25 PM
#31
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Begbies forecasts 40,000 businesses will go bust - Times Online
"... The rise in business confidence is a temporary lull before a fresh slump that will see up to 40,000 businesses to go bust next year, a new study has forecast.
Begbies Traynor, the restructuring advisory firm, said there was growing evidence that Britain was only at the mid-point of a "W" shaped recession.
Although the number of companies in a seriously distressed state fell in absolute terms both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, it said, it believes a renewed bloodbath of businesses is likely in 2010 and into 2011 with between 30,000 and 40,000 failing. The surge will be fuelled, it said, by a lack of available credit ..."
Dave
PS: though they are a "restructuring advisory firm" ....
"... The rise in business confidence is a temporary lull before a fresh slump that will see up to 40,000 businesses to go bust next year, a new study has forecast.
Begbies Traynor, the restructuring advisory firm, said there was growing evidence that Britain was only at the mid-point of a "W" shaped recession.
Although the number of companies in a seriously distressed state fell in absolute terms both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, it said, it believes a renewed bloodbath of businesses is likely in 2010 and into 2011 with between 30,000 and 40,000 failing. The surge will be fuelled, it said, by a lack of available credit ..."
Dave
PS: though they are a "restructuring advisory firm" ....
The economists have consistantly been inconistant in their predictions of this recession. Only last week were they proclaiming we were out, now it appears we probably aren't. I say probably because there is a better than average chance that the -0.4% will be revised upwards as more data becomes available. But whether its -0.4% or +0.2 it does indicate a bottoming out. What happens next is a the $64,000 question. The smart money is on a slow and stuttering recovery
26 October 2009, 12:37 PM
#33
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What we have to consider is that the country is about £ one trillion in debt and that we are still borrowing hand over fist to make it look as though we are not feeling the effects of the recession. No point in hiding our heads in the sand, the money supply from borrowing and printing will run out and we will be pushed to find enough cash to pay the interest on the borrowed sum let alone much else! Inflation will hit the roof!
Les
Les
26 October 2009, 04:44 PM
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Serious question BTW (though the amount *could* be being exaggerated ...
).Dave
26 October 2009, 05:27 PM
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1)If you feel everything is getting better and we are on the road to recovery then do the usual stuff ie buy property and equities
2) If you feel this is an artificial mini boom, fueled by printing paper money and we have solved nothing yet and have a pile of debt with no plan as to how to pay it back. If you believe that there is a fundamental shift on this planet that involves a move away from the dominance of the west and most importantly from the US dollar as the holy grail, then you need a hedge.
By 'hedge' I mean something that may retain its value globally, whilst your £ in the bank devalues and buys less of everything. The ultimate store of value is gold. Its an interesting concept and when you read up about it (and I'm sure you will) you will see two opposing views. One will say it could half in price, the other that to even match its 1980s peak in inflation matched terms it should be twice the price it is at the moment.
I have no idea what will happen, but if like me you feel that sterling may continue to fall in value then having a proportion (maybe 15%) of your quadzillions in physical gold as a hedge is something to consider.
Holding gold has an additional benefit for me, if the BNP gets in, its the only thing I can stuff in my suitcase when I scarper!
27 October 2009, 12:22 PM
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I don't think there's really a recovery, it's simply that the government has piled hundreds of billions into the economy to give it a shot in the arm.
It's like if I spent £30k a year more than I earnt and was massively in debt, then someone said "ok I'll clear some of your debts and give you £30k to spend for next year", then I'd be ok for another year, but then back to square one...
People who say "oh it's all doom and gloom!" need to think about what is the basis for a recovery? What does this country actually do/manufacture? what services to we sell on a global scale?
Selling houses to each other for ever-increasing amounts of money, then spending the "profits" was never going to keep the economy floating along forever.
It's like if I spent £30k a year more than I earnt and was massively in debt, then someone said "ok I'll clear some of your debts and give you £30k to spend for next year", then I'd be ok for another year, but then back to square one...
People who say "oh it's all doom and gloom!" need to think about what is the basis for a recovery? What does this country actually do/manufacture? what services to we sell on a global scale?
Selling houses to each other for ever-increasing amounts of money, then spending the "profits" was never going to keep the economy floating along forever.
27 October 2009, 11:31 PM
#41
Pontificating
They wanted a Legacy, well they've got one, the same one the last time they were in power.
"We inherited a country on the up and left it in a right shit shambles"
*****
"We inherited a country on the up and left it in a right shit shambles"
*****
28 October 2009, 10:38 AM
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We had around a month where we had profits climbing back up, at one point doubling, and now it is back to "pre climb" levels.
We have weather conditions to contend with as well mind, but we did see a climb, and then another crash.
We are fortunate that our busy season starts as soon as the road gritters get out on the roads and **** everybody's cars up so we are pretty safe now until at least april next year, hopefully a REAL recovery is under way then, instead of some half arsed phantom version.
I had to let a bloke go around 13 weeks back as i could not afford to pay him, just took him back on last weekend
he is over the moon, he said that the dole/job seeking situation is dire and the amount of dire faces he saw was horrible.
I have also taken on a new chap this week that comes to me from another competitor that is based around 20 miles away, they have went bust
We have weather conditions to contend with as well mind, but we did see a climb, and then another crash.
We are fortunate that our busy season starts as soon as the road gritters get out on the roads and **** everybody's cars up
so we are pretty safe now until at least april next year, hopefully a REAL recovery is under way then, instead of some half arsed phantom version. I had to let a bloke go around 13 weeks back as i could not afford to pay him, just took him back on last weekend
he is over the moon, he said that the dole/job seeking situation is dire and the amount of dire faces he saw was horrible.I have also taken on a new chap this week that comes to me from another competitor that is based around 20 miles away, they have went bust
28 October 2009, 11:11 AM
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28 October 2009, 12:06 PM
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FFS they are as bad as each other and if anyone on here thinks Cameron will do any better regardless of the state of the country his party inherits they are in for a shock.
As for blaming everything on Brown.... dangerous in my opinion. He and his government haven't helped but this downturn is about so much more than just the UK government and if you all want to sit back and wait for the next government to fix it for you then you are wasting your time.
To sort this out long term everyone will have to make sacrifices be they voluntary or forced upon them, but the trouble is thanks to the 'I'm alright Jack' mentality this and the previous government have instilled within the British psyche that ain't likely to happen is it.
28 October 2009, 02:03 PM
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LOL at stuff like this. Yeah it was on the up alright - 2 years of up after 16 years of boom-bust, dog eat dog, greed driven, social fabric destroying Thatcher's Britain.
FFS they are as bad as each other and if anyone on here thinks Cameron will do any better regardless of the state of the country his party inherits they are in for a shock.
As for blaming everything on Brown.... dangerous in my opinion. He and his government haven't helped but this downturn is about so much more than just the UK government and if you all want to sit back and wait for the next government to fix it for you then you are wasting your time.
To sort this out long term everyone will have to make sacrifices be they voluntary or forced upon them, but the trouble is thanks to the 'I'm alright Jack' mentality this and the previous government have instilled within the British psyche that ain't likely to happen is it.
FFS they are as bad as each other and if anyone on here thinks Cameron will do any better regardless of the state of the country his party inherits they are in for a shock.
As for blaming everything on Brown.... dangerous in my opinion. He and his government haven't helped but this downturn is about so much more than just the UK government and if you all want to sit back and wait for the next government to fix it for you then you are wasting your time.
To sort this out long term everyone will have to make sacrifices be they voluntary or forced upon them, but the trouble is thanks to the 'I'm alright Jack' mentality this and the previous government have instilled within the British psyche that ain't likely to happen is it.
28 October 2009, 11:01 PM
#47
Pontificating
LOL at stuff like this. Yeah it was on the up alright - 2 years of up after 16 years of boom-bust, dog eat dog, greed driven, social fabric destroying Thatcher's Britain.
FFS they are as bad as each other and if anyone on here thinks Cameron will do any better regardless of the state of the country his party inherits they are in for a shock.
As for blaming everything on Brown.... dangerous in my opinion. He and his government haven't helped but this downturn is about so much more than just the UK government and if you all want to sit back and wait for the next government to fix it for you then you are wasting your time.
To sort this out long term everyone will have to make sacrifices be they voluntary or forced upon them, but the trouble is thanks to the 'I'm alright Jack' mentality this and the previous government have instilled within the British psyche that ain't likely to happen is it.
FFS they are as bad as each other and if anyone on here thinks Cameron will do any better regardless of the state of the country his party inherits they are in for a shock.
As for blaming everything on Brown.... dangerous in my opinion. He and his government haven't helped but this downturn is about so much more than just the UK government and if you all want to sit back and wait for the next government to fix it for you then you are wasting your time.
To sort this out long term everyone will have to make sacrifices be they voluntary or forced upon them, but the trouble is thanks to the 'I'm alright Jack' mentality this and the previous government have instilled within the British psyche that ain't likely to happen is it.
Likewise I dont think Cambo will make a great PM.
It's convenient to use the recession as an excuse but the country was already decaying before the recession, well before the recession.
What have Labour done to quash the I'm alright jack physche ? thousands of needless jobs for the boys in local councils, throwing benefits around like confetti, proping up the doll scroungers, bailling out failed financial groups and then allowing them to reap the rewards of huge bonuses 6-12 months later, MP's Expenses scams, dodgy part donations,yeah they really showed their true values on these examples
This is not a Labour party it barely resembles a Labour govt true to "real" Labour values, no different to the Tories, sold out on Gold and Pensions and if there had of been any nationalised industries left they would have flogged them as well, probably for the lowest possible price they could get due to their incompetence, if anyone comes under the i'm alright jack banner it's the Labour Party themselves as they still believe they have done no wrong.
I still fail to see what they have done for this country other than making grandiose statements lording it up with Oasis and those other celebs at No 10 and then fundamentally cocking up most things they attempted to do, maybe they believed they were the celebs, it certainly looks that way.
30 October 2009, 03:36 PM
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