GlesgaKiss

You must still have had a fair bit of success with that trade though. It did drop quite a bit, and not long after you mentioned it.

I had to give up trading short-term. Once I saw the profit I'd made evaporate I couldn't risk actually eating into my savings to try and learn, they are a bit too important to me. Shame though, as testing the different strategies was something that interested me. There are a load of variables which could have helped me, such as lower trading costs, etc, that people with more capital could afford, but you never know, I may venture back into short-term stuff some day and see how it goes with money I can afford to lose.

Thanks for the advice at the time anyway, it was much appreciated.

Dingdongler

Forget Morgan Stanley, I've been telling you it will be $1500 for over a year!

Dingdongler

Fair enough I take your point and am not looking for an arguement either.

marky1

Sorry just wanted to add to this having re-read what I wrote last year and early this year.

A great trader once told me not to get married to a position and it's something I firmly believe in, the number of people I have seen go skint because they get too stuck in their view, sometimes you have to step back and have a look.

If I remember rightly the view some had on the gold thread last year was that a weakening USD would give a bid to gold. Look what happened to the USD in the early part of this year, big move that partly led to the sell off in Gold. Against the Euro a move from 1.52 to 1.19 in the space of 6 months - that's a huge move and one that from what people were writing at the time, few expected. It's good to have your eye on the big picture because the knock on effects can be huge. The USD move was started Dec 10 by a downgrade of Greece. You just never know what can happen so trade safe and protect your wealth.

There is no right way to trade but I would rather be in and out of a market several times and take the same profit as can be taken from the overall move but without the downside risk.

Dingdongler, I'm not writing this directly to you, just posting how my mind thinks. I respect that trading is each to their own, there is no correct way!

marky1

Welcome, let me know if you ever have any questions if you feel the urge to get back in. A HUGE amount of people lose money to start with, it's the cost of learning!

It did come off a while after I mentioned it and despite being stopped out a couple of times I managed to get on one of the moves. Don't really have any view on it at the moment although would be tempted to short it on a leg down with a tight stop for a quick trade.

GlesgaKiss

Well silver seems to have made a new high today: $37.22 at the mo. Inflation seems to be everywhere now, with the RPI now 5.5%; maybe this run in commodities isn't such a big deal (as in not so much of a bubble).

Still only buying stocks though, with a minimum divi of 5%, really just as a method of saving. Over the long-run inflation should also see stocks rising by roughly the same rate... so I reckon with a 5% divi - all of them reinvested - I'll be averaging out to beat inflation by a good margin. Just looking for where I think there may be value in stocks, rather than trying to time the market. I just pick a company every month or so when I have a decent amount saved. Should end up with quite a diverse range that way. I'll keep doing that through any market conditions, unless it's something so bad that it seems bound to offer a chance to get in at lower prices.

I have debated buying ETF, but the lack of any form of interest is putting me off. I think eventually I might keep 10% of my savings in physical precious metals... again bought every so often at average prices. But these would be bars and coins I would own, rather than a security.

So, Dingdongler, are you still buying? What's your view on the market at the moment?

And everyone else's for that matter.

Dingdongler

Hi Alan

No I haven't bought any for a little while now, the last time I bought was back in January some time for circa $1330/oz.

My outlook for gold is still bullish and I think we will see $2000/oz before this bull run ends, but that may take 12-24 months.

At this level now of $1400+ I'm not going to add, not because I don't believe it will go higher but just because I already have quite a bit of exposure. I'm sure I've bored you with the fact before that I started buying at $650/oz, I think my average cost will be about $875.

I'm trying to concentrate on shares at the moment, but seem to always dither too much and not act and then miss the boat.

May I ask what are the last three shares you bought and why?

Cheers

bigsinky

4 or 5oz ain't gonna mean no never mind. 4 or 5000oz, well done that chap you made a shedload this past 24 months.

bigsinky

marky

can you translate from trader speak for us mere mortals please

alloy

DD you're not dithering, sounds like you just lack convidence and conviction, nothing wrong with sitting on your hands when thats the case! There's always the next boat, at least your not getting greedy jumping in and then wearing a position that is moving against you!

Alan, from the sounds of what you're doing you are happy to pick stuff up, market timing isn't critical, and your time horizon is flexible and your comfy to let something move against you.....what criteria are you using to screen your selections?

Dingdongler

Thanks Andy

madscoob

iTrader: (3)

to keep the europhiles in the labour party and invest in the euro

GlesgaKiss

I guess it really depends on U.S. monetary policy. From their current approach, commodities do seem likely to go higher!

And no problem - Chaucer and Robert Wiseman. Chaucer was trading below supposed net tangible asset value with around a 9% yield and quite a low PE ratio when I bought it. Also there were a few bids for similar companies in the sector: insurance.

Robert Wiseman was brought to my attention by a farmer I was building a shed for! He mentioned that he'd heard their share price had taken a hit; I asked if it was likely to be temporary and he said yes... then the cogs started moving and I thought of a similar situation to BP's. I was looking for a good producer stock anyway, and Wiseman seemed to fit the bill. Dividend yield over 5% and a low PE ratio. The issue is rising costs and pressure from the supermarkets to keep prices low; hence margins will be squeezed, so the profit may fall... that's what the market had priced in with the huge drop in share price. But I reckon with their low debt they're in the best position of all the dairies to weather the storm, and I'm thinking (and hoping) that it will be temporary. The management seem to be pretty aggressive too.

Yeah, my approach is pretty much exactly as you've described. I read "The Intelligent Investor" and it stuck! It's much more suited to my personality than trading. I usually look for a combination of low PE, good dividend (and record of constant or increasing divi size), not ridiculously overpriced compared to asset value, etc. Maybe I'll miss quite a few good value opportunities in companies with little assets (i.e. they don't need them to generate large profits), but I'm probably best sticking to what I can understand for now.