Batten down the hatches and get into cash
11 July 2011, 07:36 PM
#33
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Still dont get it, Green, Portugal and Ireland are all either f*cked or pretty much there, UK is a bit better off, but not by much, US is in Hock for Trillions, Italy about to go under by the sounds of it, so the Chinese and oil rich states hold all the money and we keep borrowing.
How do us and the Yanks have wealth funds if we have to keep borrowing ?
How do us and the Yanks have wealth funds if we have to keep borrowing ?
12 July 2011, 09:16 AM
#41
At the minute I'm working abroad and get paid in Euros but transfer my wage into Sterling to cover mortgage payments and for savings. What is this situation going to mean for me?
Basically is the exchange rate going to get better or worse for me?
Kev
Basically is the exchange rate going to get better or worse for me?
Kev
12 July 2011, 10:52 AM
#43
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If Italy goes to the wall it may well mean the end of the Euro. The big plus from that would be that it would be impossible to federate the Eu countries and with a bit of luck the whole egregious scheme may all turn to dust.
Les
Les
12 July 2011, 08:00 PM
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If the smart money is already in cash, then there is no real money left to sell. With no selling power the markets often drift higher. Volume hasn't been big considering the volatility we have seen, surprising since we know fear to be a stronger emotion in comparison to greed. This reaffirms that more than likely the smart money is already in cash and the low volume often triggers volatile thin trading. If everyone is bearish, you'd be surprised how rewarding being a patient bull can be. One bit of good news triggers a bit of risk appetite and then as all the bears stops get triggered waves of new buying emerge....
June, the risk off trade saw equities down for 3weeks, good news and all this damage pared within a week. Usually we sell off frantic and then grind higher, here the converse.....
June, the risk off trade saw equities down for 3weeks, good news and all this damage pared within a week. Usually we sell off frantic and then grind higher, here the converse.....
12 July 2011, 08:14 PM
#50
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Could it be that this is so big and intangible that everyone has just locked down and are doing nothing - like the bank we talked about.
He was in massive amounts of cash months ago. It a cash and hold strategy.
You are right though - there is no black Monday...
...yet!!!!
He was in massive amounts of cash months ago. It a cash and hold strategy.
You are right though - there is no black Monday...
...yet!!!!
12 July 2011, 08:29 PM
#51
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I'm pretty certain the big institutions are largely cash allocated, from speaking to brokers there's not a lot of business being done out there at present.
There doesn't need to be a black Monday, the markets are very efficient in pricing risk. The consequence of these European dominos falling is global. China will realise their economic output and reserves is futile if there is no one to do business with, market rumour today was that they started buying euro debt. The US will not allow the efforts of asset purchasing and maxing out the Feds credit card to be in vain. Default will eventually occur, but the global economy is not robust to tackle this burden quite yet.....
There doesn't need to be a black Monday, the markets are very efficient in pricing risk. The consequence of these European dominos falling is global. China will realise their economic output and reserves is futile if there is no one to do business with, market rumour today was that they started buying euro debt. The US will not allow the efforts of asset purchasing and maxing out the Feds credit card to be in vain. Default will eventually occur, but the global economy is not robust to tackle this burden quite yet.....
12 July 2011, 10:19 PM
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13 July 2011, 08:04 AM
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But is it? Look what's happening in Spain ... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...802458052.html ...
MADRID—The new leader of Spain's Castilla La Mancha region said on Monday that it has a budget deficit more than twice as large as had previously been thought, raising new concerns over the true state of regional finances and helping to send Spain's risk premium to records.
Things are only going to get worse .....
Dave
13 July 2011, 08:46 AM
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But is it? Look what's happening in Spain ... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...802458052.html ...
Things are only going to get worse .....
Dave
Things are only going to get worse .....
Dave
13 July 2011, 08:50 AM
#58
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A friend of mine has 73 rental properties. If he does not get rent on 3 of those he is loss making. And in this climate collecting 90-95% of your rents is a challenge!!!
And if you only have 3 or 4 properties the risk of occupancy or default is a lot higher!!!!
13 July 2011, 09:02 AM
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Definitely not immune, just seems the least of evils to me now. I mean primary property. I am not rich enough to have a string of rentals without leverage and have a nice owner occupied too. The situation with 73 rentals for which you need 70 occupied is far more scary than my risk averse stomach would tolerate.
Last edited by john banks; 13 July 2011 at 09:05 AM.
13 July 2011, 09:12 AM
#60
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looks like financial suicide to me -- if mortgage rates go up I would make an offer to the lease/finance company on his Aston