pslewis

I know what I know and it's painfully simple ....... Greece is about to have 50% of it's debts written off.

Will Spain, Portugal and, yes, Ireland just sit on their hands paying down 100% of their debt? Nah, course they won't!! They will all want the same deal as Greece and I'm not sure that everyone can have that deal?

What about the UK - can we have our debts halved, please?

tony de wonderful

lol if governments clubbed together like a union they could get their debts halved. What are lenders going to do about it? Most of the lenders are just our pension funds anyway!

Trout

iTrader: (1)

...and the Arabs...


...and the Chinese


...but it's OK because they're foreign!

alloy

Thread has been a good read, sums up current markets pretty nicely.....load of people without a clue flapping about and speculating rumours

Trout

iTrader: (1)

Alloy - you have been away for a while - were you one of Kweku's counter-parties and have you been partying ever since?

alloy

Yup, every great villain needs a fall guy and so far so well

tony de wonderful

There's risk to every investment.

tony de wonderful

Punctured 5000 support.

Trout

iTrader: (1)

...and tanking!

Trout

iTrader: (1)

Gold has fallen sharply as well

Trout

iTrader: (1)

Cocaine is up though - especially around Liverpool Street

alloy

5000 isn't support, its just a psychological level, support is at 4950 which we have halted todays decline at

alloy

There is no reason for you have to been long this week from a technical perspective,

Levels to watch out for are 4950, 4930, 4900 then big gap to 4800, if we take out this August low then measured move would complete at 4550.

tony de wonderful

I stand corrected.

Market will rally now you think? Central Banks will pour oil on the troubled waters?

alloy

There is no reason for them to rally, no one will want to take risk ahead of the weekend, at best they perhaps stabilise and consolidate around here....

GlesgaKiss

I can't wait until these clowns have been proven utterly incompetent by Europe's failure. Hopefully we can get back to something approaching common sense.

TelBoy

Who would you classify as the clowns though? The Greek government for not being able to organise a ****-up in a brewery or the people who accepted their accounts to let them into the Eurodream in the first place? Or the heads of governments who are too afraid to take sufficiently drastic action for fear of losing their political power? It's a wall of shame all round.

tony de wonderful

It's a failure of elites ultimately.

Chip

Alloy,

Can you explain why these figures are so significant.

TelBoy

Without stepping on alloy's toes, they're trend lines based on past performance, Chip. You can use whatever points of reference you like to determine resistance points, but FTSE can be quite technical so it's easier to chart. If you have charting software it's a lot easier to see. The big BIG number on FTSE is 4787 as below that, it's all the way down to 4000 after that.

GlesgaKiss

The central planners who've centralised the control of economic matters and believe they can defy economic orthodoxy - by running constant deficits and the like. None of them can organise a p*ss up in a brewery... our 'leaders' are no better. The 'drastic action' I'm worried about them taking is something which completely undermines the basis of capitalism and makes things ultimately worse. We want to get back to minimal interference in our affairs and take some personal responsibility by throwing off the control of these 'smart' people who promise to run everything for us.

Or I do, at least. A few years of hardship has to be worth it! And I will be affected. I work in construction so have no privileged position of comfort to fall back on; it's just that I can see what I think is a way out, and it isn't more denial.

alloy

They are mostly prior lows, the premise in technical analysis is that when you retest prior lows they act as areas of support, much more applicable when markets are trending, but in this market we use this understanding of price action to identify potential areas where demand could enter the markets and an equilibrium in bulls and bears realised.

The significant one there is 4800, if we take this out then we will end up trading towards 4500 pretty shortly after....if we hit and stabilise we could argue there is a double bottom (depending on seeing some bullish divergence or not) and perhaps then we can address buying back into equity.

For Q3 we are seeing equities on average underperforming treasuries and commodities by some 45%. In Q4 ‘08 they only underperformed by 42%, so there is suggestion that this imbalance may trigger significant quarterly rebalancing into equity and out of treasuries....however with a precarious global outlook and all this political rhetoric solving nothing, there still remains no reason to be taking on risk....

J4CKO

iTrader: (1)

When are we going to see the odd banker pitching his sorry **** out of a high window, I like that bit.

GlesgaKiss

TelBoy

What's good about all this of course, is that commodity prices have fallen off a cliff in the last couple of weeks. Copper futures for instance, 57,340 today from 64,850 just FOUR days ago. Crude oil at 78.54 from 89.78 just a WEEK ago. And natural gas at 3.72 from 4.08 just eight days ago.

So it's lower petrol, lower gas bills, less nicking of railway cables

Chyeah

TelBoy

Cheers

Chip

So how low do you think its going to go this time?

Chip

alloy

Takes out the 4800 level it goes to 4500

TelBoy

Well the fundamentals aren't great. The measures that these governments are having to take aren't just "cut the biscuits from the boardroom meetings", they're significant, deep fiscal cuts, that will take a while to take effect. It will be very difficult in my opinion to avoid a global recession (under 3% global growth on a weighted average basis) even with China, India etc chipping in 8, 9% numbers every year for the moment.

I think it's easy to say it will stay under 5,000 for the forseeable future. My best guess is stabilisation around 4,250. But i really, really hope i'm wrong, that's a disastrous level for lots of people.