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UK economy - should Osborne change tack?

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Old 11 October 2011, 01:07 PM
  #31  
ALi-B
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Osborne is screwed whatever he does. The outcome is bad no mater what is done, the only thing that can be done is to limit the severity of it. Problem trying to do that (limit our debt/spending) without causing every union to have a strike at the slightest sniff of a cut appears to be impossible.

The fact is its an unsolvable problem. Anyone expecting him to be able to suddenly make Britain a booming country in less than the 2years he's been office need a bitch slap IMHO. This will take ten years to sort out at the very minimum, just like the last time.

Last edited by ALi-B; 11 October 2011 at 01:09 PM.
Old 11 October 2011, 01:19 PM
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As for our military, I heard a interesting statistic the other day from a TV pundit on BBC breakfast;- The UK's military has more Generals than the US army. Not sure of the source, but if its true its a clear example of our top-heavy hierarcy in military and civil sectors .

Too many at the top that are part of the old boys clubs and therefore untouchable to any cut, redundancy or demotion. Its similar in other sectors too, not to mention all the mangers in the all of the quangos with everyone working their way up the career ladder but seemingly impossible to knock them down a few rungs when times are tough.
Old 11 October 2011, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by pslewis
The BOE has printed £275billion to give to the Banks who cannot do their jobs properly.

Use it to keep people in work and to encourage them to spend .... let's get growth going!!
Gov spending is there is make recessions less bad not as an engine for growth.
Old 11 October 2011, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by ALi-B
As for our military, I heard a interesting statistic the other day from a TV pundit on BBC breakfast;- The UK's military has more Generals than the US army. Not sure of the source, but if its true its a clear example of our top-heavy hierarcy in military and civil sectors .

Too many at the top that are part of the old boys clubs and therefore untouchable to any cut, redundancy or demotion. Its similar in other sectors too, not to mention all the mangers in the all of the quangos with everyone working their way up the career ladder but seemingly impossible to knock them down a few rungs when times are tough.
Yes this is true with the Public sector, it retains often up to 20 levels of hierarchy whereas the private sector is much more lean.

It's really a joke, a kind of middle-class welfare.
Old 11 October 2011, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by ALi-B
Osborne is screwed whatever he does. The outcome is bad no mater what is done, the only thing that can be done is to limit the severity of it. Problem trying to do that (limit our debt/spending) without causing every union to have a strike at the slightest sniff of a cut appears to be impossible.

The fact is its an unsolvable problem. Anyone expecting him to be able to suddenly make Britain a booming country in less than the 2years he's been office need a bitch slap IMHO. This will take ten years to sort out at the very minimum, just like the last time.
And where did ANYONE in this thread say they expect him to have turned the country into a booming economy in less than 2 years???

I wonder if you are actually George Osborne or at least a blood relative given this rather daft outburst!
Old 11 October 2011, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by f1_fan
And where did ANYONE in this thread say they expect him to have turned the country into a booming economy in less than 2 years???

I wonder if you are actually George Osborne or at least a blood relative given this rather daft outburst!
You did, because you want him to be able to turn this country around while GDP growth is increased. We've got a serious structural problem, we're consuming credit and so much of our economy is setup to do just that. It means that if you want to get out of this mess, a certain proportion of these credit consuming companies will have to go. GDP would contract if you really attempted to fix the problem.

That is unless you can't draw the line between productive and unproductive 'growth', which the modern policy maker seems unable to do. Perhaps they do know it, but it's political suicide to do anything about it. People like your fine self would complain.
Old 11 October 2011, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by GlesgaKiss
You did, because you want him to be able to turn this country around while GDP growth is increased. We've got a serious structural problem, we're consuming credit and so much of our economy is setup to do just that. It means that if you want to get out of this mess, a certain proportion of these credit consuming companies will have to go. GDP would contract if you really attempted to fix the problem.

That is unless you can't draw the line between productive and unproductive 'growth', which the modern policy maker seems unable to do. Perhaps they do know it, but it's political suicide to do anything about it. People like your find self would complain.
No I did not! The government have stated they want to reduce borrowing, they cannot do that if their cuts are being outstripped by a drop in tax receipts. I am advocating a longer term and hence less stringent plan that allows the economy to at least keep tax income at a constant level so the effect of any cuts is actually real!

Last edited by f1_fan; 11 October 2011 at 02:06 PM.
Old 11 October 2011, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by f1_fan
No I did not! The government have stated they want to reduce borrowing, they cannot do that if their cuts are being outstripped by a drop in tax receipts. I am advocating a longer term and hence less stringent plan that allows the economy to at least keep tax income at a constant level so the effect of any cuts is actually real!
So borrow money to pay people so they can pay tax back?

Old 11 October 2011, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by tony de wonderful
So borrow money to pay people so they can pay tax back?

Did I say that?
Old 11 October 2011, 02:18 PM
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IMO I don't think any single Government will be able sort this out. The UK's monetary and fiscal policies do not extend much further than our shores in this global crisis. The worlds' economy as it stands is pretty much in uncharted waters in the face of down-grades and impending defaults of various countries. People drive the economy, not Governments, and at the moment the people are scared, scared of loosing their jobs, scared of what is happening to the economy, scared of the rise in the cost of living, scared of spending and keeping hold of their money in case the worst happens. The Government can only do what they can to weather the storm.
Old 11 October 2011, 02:18 PM
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There is a bit of vicious circle going on here though. Can you not see it? They want to increase tax receipts, so they have to spend a certain amount more borrowed money to bring in tax receipts? They spend, and they get back in receipts. So how do they ever cut spending? I can't see a way for the private sector to bring real growth (not more services and consumption that we don't need) in this current climate. We need to start paying for things, and we can't do that without the GDP suffering in the short-term. Tax receipts will fall, but they aren't real receipts anyway, their origin is credit.
Old 11 October 2011, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by tony de wonderful
So borrow money to pay people so they can pay tax back?

Beat me to it!
Old 11 October 2011, 02:19 PM
  #43  
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Old 11 October 2011, 02:28 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by GlesgaKiss
There is a bit of vicious circle going on here though. Can you not see it? They want to increase tax receipts, so they have to spend a certain amount more borrowed money to bring in tax receipts? They spend, and they get back in receipts. So how do they ever cut spending? I can't see a way for the private sector to bring real growth (not more services and consumption that we don't need) in this current climate. We need to start paying for things, and we can't do that without the GDP suffering in the short-term. Tax receipts will fall, but they aren't real receipts anyway, their origin is credit.
Yes I can see it, but that vicious circle was there under Brown's government and is still there albeit in a very slightly different form under Cameron's.

So given that and under the current policy government borrowing is rising anyway what is the real solution?
Old 11 October 2011, 02:30 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by f1_fan
Yes I can see it, but that vicious circle was there under Brown's government and is still there albeit in a very slightly different form under Cameron's.

So given that and under the current policy government borrowing is rising anyway what is the real solution?
We both know what the solution is, but it's not possible really given the way the country is now. At the end of world war two, sure, people were willing to take the pain and get on with things. People now expect much more in terms of comfort. That's why this problem will only be 'resolved' when there is no other option - i.e. we're screwed.
Old 11 October 2011, 02:45 PM
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The general strikes next month might go some way to resolving things, if they go ahead.

Just seems strange saying it, a "general strike" in 2011. If that isn't evidence enough of the hurdles to be overcome, i don't know what is.
Old 11 October 2011, 06:08 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by David Lock
All the nukes that we could chuck at China wouldn't make any significant difference because the place is so big and anyway the Gov't there would probably accept the loss of a few million of its citizens.
This is not true. Just one of our trident subs could take China back to the stone ages. All you need to do is take out the top 3-4 cities and they'd be stuffed. Its not just the physical damage and loss of life, its the economic meltdown that would result aswell.

Of course in the same vein, all they would need to do is wipe out London and we've got the same problem.
Old 11 October 2011, 06:37 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by f1_fan
And where did ANYONE in this thread say they expect him to have turned the country into a booming economy in less than 2 years???

I wonder if you are actually George Osborne or at least a blood relative given this rather daft outburst!

Why do you have to insult me? Its just not called for.

Last edited by ALi-B; 11 October 2011 at 06:43 PM. Reason: why do I bother!
Old 11 October 2011, 07:48 PM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by David Lock
In my rather gloomy view in 20 - 40 years China will have more or less taken over. They are already moving in on Africa and S America and may move more into Europe which will probably economically implode sooner rather than later.
I think Brazil is probably going to be the next economic super power after China. I think it will out-grow India with India being a close 3rd.

I'm still not completely convinced that the minority in China will be able to support the majority. Most of them can't afford these new buildings - they are just being built to give the impression of growth (one man digs a hole, the other man fills it in)

What happens if the Chinese do all become uber-consumers (a guy who runs an Asian investment fund said of a Chinese work colleague "...her children make Americans look like they are only playing at being consumers!") Where will China get all its cheap goods from? Here? Africa?

Last edited by EddScott; 11 October 2011 at 07:51 PM.
Old 11 October 2011, 07:48 PM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by Leslie
You have to remember and be honest enough to accept the gross damage that was done to this country by New Labour led by the lying hound whom you worship aided by the even bigger liar he employed and backed by the gutless quorum in his cabinet and the useless MP's in his party for their own advantage.

Apart from pissing our money against the wall without a thought for the enormous national debt they were building up with their borrowing and spend policies and lack of any discernible real action for the good of the people, they stuck to employing vast numbers of people in the public sector to artificially lower the un employment figures thus creating an enormous beaurocracy at mindbending expense and buying votes as hard as they could go.

Far from cutting out the useless Quango's or "jobs for the boys" they increased them and used the PFI to create enormous extra and inefficient further debt for our grandchildren.

They failed to regulate the bankers shameful and greedy actions because they were aiming to keep their support and thus had a big responsibility for the eventual recession which followed in due course. There is no way that they can blame the rest of the world for our problems which they were guilty of creating themselves.

A good government would have used the strong economy that was bequeathed to them by the party they took over from to build up our own manufacturing industry and thus enabled the country to earn its own way in the world with nil or a very small deficit and by now we would have been in a very strong position. Instead of that they just threw it all away for their own nefarious purposes.

As always seems to be the historical case, the present goverment has inherited a bag of rubbish as far as the economy is concerned and is poorly placed to turn it all around. There just isn't the money available to keep paying out without borrowing even more and increasing the deficit.

A country is only as rich as the money which is earned by the productive work that is done by its people. The death of our manufacturing industries due to previous actions is a killer in that respect.

It is obviously a very difficult situation to put right and the risk of course is eventual bankruptcy. Could happen to any country!

I think that very strong action is necessary in the extreme. All the grossly expensive actions by the previous bunch of clowns must be reversed. widespread immigration must cease, and the edicts from the corrupt fellows over the water must be ignored.

To do that we need a strong leader. Can anyone see one of those on the horizon?

Unless our present government wakes up and stops poncing around meekly accepting what they are ordered to do by those who would take total control of our country if they ever get the chance, I see nothing to look forward to in the future.

Les
Can't say fairer than that
Old 11 October 2011, 07:53 PM
  #51  
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You know regulation of the banking sector was passed to the FSA in 1998.

What a joke? FSA loves turning the thumb screws on those good for nothing lying cheating IFAs but won't say boo to a banker.

Weak regulation is weak.
Old 11 October 2011, 08:10 PM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by EddScott
You know regulation of the banking sector was passed to the FSA in 1998.

What a joke? FSA loves turning the thumb screws on those good for nothing lying cheating IFAs but won't say boo to a banker.

Weak regulation is weak.
What's this all about. Doesn't look right to me. Is this why the taxman is always checking on the little folks, to try to claw more tax from them, rather than tackle the big lads


http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16086749
Old 12 October 2011, 01:39 PM
  #53  
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I seriously wonder what else anyone expected the 'Con-dem-nation' party to do once they got into power.
It was written all over their faces leading up to the last election. The Lib Dems have no clout and are just pleased to be to have a seat at the table. Name one policy that they had pre-election that has been implemented? Now add up all of those that they have 'back-tracked' on.

Of course cuts have to be made. Anyone with half a brain cell can work that one out. The previous government speculated on an ever economy growing economy without putting cash away for a 'rainy day'.
But it is the way in which our new 'leaders' come across that really gets up my nose. None of them seem sincere, none of them answer questions on why they lied about policies pre-elections and all parties seem as bad as each other. It is all about point scoring, nothing more.

After the expenses scandal, how can anyone have faith in our political system?
It is just a shame that David Miliband stepped out of his brother's way as he is the only politician that seems to make any sense these days.

The Tories were always going to cut too deep, too soon.
Now their policies are proving to be either ineffective or just plain wrong.
Will they have the ***** to say that their projections were a little off and do the right thing by tweaking them? Will they f%ck. If they did that, labour would tear them apart.

So, we are stuck with what we have got for the foreseeable future.
Old 12 October 2011, 02:00 PM
  #54  
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There is no magic answer to our economic problems. We are not ever so far away from the situation just after WW2 when this country was on its knees financially.

The people had to cope with extreme austerity, the sort of thing that would have everyone howling in protest at the moment.

The only real way was to reduce government spending while trying to support industry and everything manufactured which was worthwhile in those days was for export only!

It has the be faced up to that we now have to deal with the immense debt that NL created for us all and our descendants and there is no way that we can expect our standard of living to improve or maybe even to be maintained until our economy is turned around, and that will take a long time too.

We have been at the mercy of people who have shown that we can no longer trust them since they are in the game above all for themselves, and greedy and selfish bankers with no sense of responsibility or loyalty to this country.

Les
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