Will Europe crash and burn after tonight
14 May 2012, 04:45 PM
#35
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Not looking good http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18055629
Open talk of Greece leaving the Euro. If that happens what are the prospects for Spain? Not enough money around to bail them out, let alone Italy...
Open talk of Greece leaving the Euro. If that happens what are the prospects for Spain? Not enough money around to bail them out, let alone Italy...
14 May 2012, 04:56 PM
#37
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If Greece leaves the Eurozone and defaults, surely all that bailout money will be lost? As in, it would have been much better for all parties if they'd defaulted sooner?
14 May 2012, 07:16 PM
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It's in no ones best interest for Greece to exit the EMU.....the Greeks are passionate people and they have vocally expressed their dissatisfaction with the recent election. In a recent poll approx 72% said they wanted to remain in the EU and keep the Euro, perhaps they will come to their senses in the next election (if no coalition is formed) however recent opinion polls also suggest perhaps greater weight towards the extreme left parties.
Today's open talk of Greek exit is a reminder to the nation that their exit will effect them greater than the rest of the EU. The problem is Greece either faces a tough 5 year battle of austerity and low growth if it stays in the EU and EMU or it faces 10 years of depravity in the case it elects to withdraw.....it's now down to them to choose to cut their nose off to spite their face
Today's open talk of Greek exit is a reminder to the nation that their exit will effect them greater than the rest of the EU. The problem is Greece either faces a tough 5 year battle of austerity and low growth if it stays in the EU and EMU or it faces 10 years of depravity in the case it elects to withdraw.....it's now down to them to choose to cut their nose off to spite their face
14 May 2012, 10:09 PM
#41
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surely its 5 years for us, but 20 to 30 years for the Greeks if they remain in the Euro, and have to pay back all the borrowed money (which they have no hope of doing)
14 May 2012, 11:10 PM
#42
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It's in no ones best interest for Greece to exit the EMU.....the Greeks are passionate people and they have vocally expressed their dissatisfaction with the recent election. In a recent poll approx 72% said they wanted to remain in the EU and keep the Euro, perhaps they will come to their senses in the next election (if no coalition is formed) however recent opinion polls also suggest perhaps greater weight towards the extreme left parties.
Today's open talk of Greek exit is a reminder to the nation that their exit will effect them greater than the rest of the EU. The problem is Greece either faces a tough 5 year battle of austerity and low growth if it stays in the EU and EMU or it faces 10 years of depravity in the case it elects to withdraw.....it's now down to them to choose to cut their nose off to spite their face
Today's open talk of Greek exit is a reminder to the nation that their exit will effect them greater than the rest of the EU. The problem is Greece either faces a tough 5 year battle of austerity and low growth if it stays in the EU and EMU or it faces 10 years of depravity in the case it elects to withdraw.....it's now down to them to choose to cut their nose off to spite their face
For them, it's a simple case of the avoidance of pain (austerity) and the seeking of pleasure (bailout money). They associate the Euro with good things because it made them feel good for a while. Maybe it would be best for them to stay on the Euro. But the question is still whether money should be thrown into the seemingly bottomless pit in order to finance their consumption just on the off chance that they might go through an economic miracle.
How do you arrive at the ten years of depravity in the event of their leaving the EMU? Is the battle with austerity even something that's winnable?
14 May 2012, 11:21 PM
#43
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any hopeless bankrupt will tell you their financial recovery begins at the moment they declare it
staying in the Euro Greeks recovery will only begin once its debts are paid, 20 to 30 to 50 years away - if ever
staying in the Euro Greeks recovery will only begin once its debts are paid, 20 to 30 to 50 years away - if ever
Last edited by hodgy0_2; 15 May 2012 at 12:26 PM. Reason: spelling
14 May 2012, 11:33 PM
#44
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Modern economics separates the micro from the macro. At the individual level, economics obeys the laws of reality. Where a country is concerned, witchcraft can frequently be achieved.
15 May 2012, 11:27 AM
#45
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When you've got 'em by the ***** their hearts and minds will follow. This is particularly apt at the moment.
Despite what is being said I wouldn't be that surprised if the EC extended the time frame for Greece to pay back its loans whilst insisting on more control over Greek finances, especially an update of its tax collection system.
dl
Despite what is being said I wouldn't be that surprised if the EC extended the time frame for Greece to pay back its loans whilst insisting on more control over Greek finances, especially an update of its tax collection system.
dl
15 May 2012, 12:16 PM
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It surely depends on a person's political outlook. That says to me that they've expressed their dissatisfaction at not being able to be given money by other countries (including this one). But, of course, your average Greek is not aware of the exact statistical economic consequences of being in the Euro or not, of full default or not. Their main concern is their standard of living, and principles or any kind of understanding of global commerce, in my opinion, doesn't enter the equation.
For them, it's a simple case of the avoidance of pain (austerity) and the seeking of pleasure (bailout money). They associate the Euro with good things because it made them feel good for a while. Maybe it would be best for them to stay on the Euro. But the question is still whether money should be thrown into the seemingly bottomless pit in order to finance their consumption just on the off chance that they might go through an economic miracle.
How do you arrive at the ten years of depravity in the event of their leaving the EMU? Is the battle with austerity even something that's winnable?
For them, it's a simple case of the avoidance of pain (austerity) and the seeking of pleasure (bailout money). They associate the Euro with good things because it made them feel good for a while. Maybe it would be best for them to stay on the Euro. But the question is still whether money should be thrown into the seemingly bottomless pit in order to finance their consumption just on the off chance that they might go through an economic miracle.
How do you arrive at the ten years of depravity in the event of their leaving the EMU? Is the battle with austerity even something that's winnable?
Is Austerity winnable? Yes look at Germany....its a long road but it gets you to your destination!
The difference between a hopeless bankrupt and Greece is that the bankrupt still earns and pays away in the same currency as its peers, Greece currency will get hammered and compound their misery
15 May 2012, 01:16 PM
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15 May 2012, 01:23 PM
#51
17 May 2012, 01:09 PM
#53
Perhaps if people over here thought on a little and paid their dues a bit more willingly we wont end up in the same boat, not so much the odd £100 cash job, I am talking about the billionaires avoiding tax, I can understand a bit of Evasion for folks to make ends meet if its the difference between sink or swim but the cynical avoidance of millions in tax, by people who dont need the money I find repulsive.
17 May 2012, 03:42 PM
#55
Perhaps if people over here thought on a little and paid their dues a bit more willingly we wont end up in the same boat, not so much the odd £100 cash job, I am talking about the billionaires avoiding tax, I can understand a bit of Evasion for folks to make ends meet if its the difference between sink or swim but the cynical avoidance of millions in tax, by people who dont need the money I find repulsive.
I don't think the UK will ever get into the same situation as the Greeks are experiencing now, our tax system is a lot more stringent in comparison and whilst there are many of the rich who take advantage of the tax loop holes (who wouldn't if given the chance!) they are not doing anything illegal and it is up to the Government to close these loopholes.
17 May 2012, 04:01 PM
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From what I hear the tax collection system is appallingly out of date. Manual with virtually no proper systems existing.
I'd have thought the EC could insist on decent systems being installed with say a 3- month deadline. At that time they would start locking up a few obvious high earners who hadn't declared their income/wealth and confiscating a few yachts. And freeze large Euro bank withdrawals.
This would be a great start and wouldn't upset the majority living on the bread line.
dl
I'd have thought the EC could insist on decent systems being installed with say a 3- month deadline. At that time they would start locking up a few obvious high earners who hadn't declared their income/wealth and confiscating a few yachts. And freeze large Euro bank withdrawals.
This would be a great start and wouldn't upset the majority living on the bread line.
dl
17 May 2012, 04:33 PM
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calling the market down 7% tomorrow? I guess not out of the question but perhaps a little on the excessive side! Lots of exhaustion signals printing, lots of upside reversal patterns out there i should be trading long, but my head just says no!
IMF playing chicken and saying all communication with Greece halted until election concluded. Now it is all down to Germany, they are the deciding party as to the Euro and EU continuing or not. Germany are at huge risk.....perhaps they might reconsider the EuroBond route as the EU constitution will need tweaking regardless. UK GDP to be effected by -6% in the event of Euro breakup the recession will well and truly become a depression!
From what I hear the tax collection system is appallingly out of date. Manual with virtually no proper systems existing.
I'd have thought the EC could insist on decent systems being installed with say a 3- month deadline. At that time they would start locking up a few obvious high earners who hadn't declared their income/wealth and confiscating a few yachts. And freeze large Euro bank withdrawals.
This would be a great start and wouldn't upset the majority living on the bread line.
dl
I'd have thought the EC could insist on decent systems being installed with say a 3- month deadline. At that time they would start locking up a few obvious high earners who hadn't declared their income/wealth and confiscating a few yachts. And freeze large Euro bank withdrawals.
This would be a great start and wouldn't upset the majority living on the bread line.
dl
17 May 2012, 04:56 PM
#58
Who do all these countries owe all this money to, I don't understand it ?
Seems the whole financial world is tying itself in knots trying to even all this out, who is sat there calling in the debts as all countries seem to have massive debt apart from about 2, do they owe it to individuals, companies or what ?
Seems the whole financial world is tying itself in knots trying to even all this out, who is sat there calling in the debts as all countries seem to have massive debt apart from about 2, do they owe it to individuals, companies or what ?
17 May 2012, 05:03 PM
#59
calling the market down 7% tomorrow? I guess not out of the question but perhaps a little on the excessive side! Lots of exhaustion signals printing, lots of upside reversal patterns out there i should be trading long, but my head just says no!
IMF playing chicken and saying all communication with Greece halted until election concluded. Now it is all down to Germany, they are the deciding party as to the Euro and EU continuing or not. Germany are at huge risk.....perhaps they might reconsider the EuroBond route as the EU constitution will need tweaking regardless. UK GDP to be effected by -6% in the event of Euro breakup the recession will well and truly become a depression!
IMF playing chicken and saying all communication with Greece halted until election concluded. Now it is all down to Germany, they are the deciding party as to the Euro and EU continuing or not. Germany are at huge risk.....perhaps they might reconsider the EuroBond route as the EU constitution will need tweaking regardless. UK GDP to be effected by -6% in the event of Euro breakup the recession will well and truly become a depression!
I'm not doubting it, just don't understand why? And how you arrive at a figure of 6%?
17 May 2012, 05:03 PM
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calling the market down 7% tomorrow? I guess not out of the question but perhaps a little on the excessive side! Lots of exhaustion signals printing, lots of upside reversal patterns out there i should be trading long, but my head just says no!
IMF playing chicken and saying all communication with Greece halted until election concluded. Now it is all down to Germany, they are the deciding party as to the Euro and EU continuing or not. Germany are at huge risk.....perhaps they might reconsider the EuroBond route as the EU constitution will need tweaking regardless. UK GDP to be effected by -6% in the event of Euro breakup the recession will well and truly become a depression!
IMF playing chicken and saying all communication with Greece halted until election concluded. Now it is all down to Germany, they are the deciding party as to the Euro and EU continuing or not. Germany are at huge risk.....perhaps they might reconsider the EuroBond route as the EU constitution will need tweaking regardless. UK GDP to be effected by -6% in the event of Euro breakup the recession will well and truly become a depression!
dl