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Is the housing market d-e-a-d???

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Old 16 March 2005, 08:35 PM
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Diesel
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Default Is the housing market d-e-a-d???

I put our house up for sale 3 days before Xmas - not even a 'comedy' offer yet... Surrey, and a well located 3 bed semi with a Scoobysize garage!

I note houses I compared it to for pricing are also still on sale.

Dropped it 15k a month ago - zip.

Houses I'm looking to buy in Cardiff - inc the one I want to put an offer on - are all still for sale 3 months on...

Absolute pants! Anyone else in same boat?
Old 16 March 2005, 08:41 PM
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GCollier
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We're looking to move this year, and I've been keeping an eye on the areas we're interested in on pretty much a daily basis - the rightmove website is great for that. The market isn't dead, but is definitely pretty slow, particularly in some price brackets.

Gary.
Old 16 March 2005, 08:47 PM
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Petem95
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The market is dead - loads of houses available now, but not many buyers. First time buyers have generally been priced out, and buy-to-lets arent viable anymore. So theres nobody at the bottom of the chain, so nothing can sell. Looks like prices will either continue to slide as they have been doing since the end of last summer, or will crash.

Checkout www.housepricecrash.co.uk forum for more.

If youre a gambling man you could reduce youre price by a fair bit to attract interest, then if you manage to sell, rent for a bit - hoping the market falls significantly, then buy again when prices are lower (ie become an STR)
Old 16 March 2005, 09:09 PM
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jonc
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Don't think its gonna get much better with the imminent rise in interest rates though this is traditionally the quietest time of the year for house sales, but the level at which stamp duty has been raised to £120k in todays budget will help buyers.
Old 16 March 2005, 09:09 PM
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Chip
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Early part of the year is traditionally very slow anyway for house sales. Things do seem to be picking up a little locally which will I think continue for the foreseeable future though as fast as the last few years which were a little silly and led by those nasty little people called estate agents

Chip
Old 16 March 2005, 09:22 PM
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unclebuck
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New Labour have allowed the market to overheat. Next comes the meltdown. Blame that lieing **** Brown
Old 16 March 2005, 09:27 PM
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chris's scooby
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Originally Posted by Diesel
I put our house up for sale 3 days before Xmas - not even a 'comedy' offer yet... Surrey, and a well located 3 bed semi with a Scoobysize garage!

I note houses I compared it to for pricing are also still on sale.

Dropped it 15k a month ago - zip.

Houses I'm looking to buy in Cardiff - inc the one I want to put an offer on - are all still for sale 3 months on...

Absolute pants! Anyone else in same boat?
It'll be overpriced then!

Only joking, although that may play a part. The market is a bit flat in the South. It normally picks up after Easter unless there's a General Election, in which case it normally staggers on until then...
Old 16 March 2005, 09:52 PM
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Jerome
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Maybe everyone was waiting for Brown to release his election friendly budget.

Either that or the UK has run out of first time buyers prepared to sell their kidneys and first born to buy a matchbox sized hovel and the knock-on effect is the whole market has stagnated.
Old 16 March 2005, 09:58 PM
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Scooby-Doo
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The increase in stamp duty will do nothing for the south east where you cannot buy a property for £120k unless you are after a shed. Things will be slow as its looking certain for a rate rise in May and many first time buyers will wait to see what effect this has on the housing market. Personally I have been looking but will wait until August min to see the effect.

Good luck anyway
Old 16 March 2005, 10:00 PM
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MattN
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things OK round here - houses going for top money in about a week or so.

Good area's always sell
Old 16 March 2005, 10:02 PM
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chris's scooby
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Locally the mid to higher end of the market seems to have picked up in the last couple of weeks.
Old 16 March 2005, 10:03 PM
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richie rich
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have to agree with this hole hearted ...
Originally Posted by Scooby-Doo
The increase in stamp duty will do nothing for the south east where you cannot buy a property for £120k unless you are after a shed. Things will be slow as its looking certain for a rate rise in May and many first time buyers will wait to see what effect this has on the housing market. Personally I have been looking but will wait until August min to see the effect.

Good luck anyway
Old 16 March 2005, 10:06 PM
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unclebuck
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Originally Posted by MattN
things OK round here - houses going for top money in about a week or so.

Good area's always sell
Fail to see why this is always seen as 'good news'. It's simply raising the bar higher.

The higher you fly, the further you will have to fall when the [great] 'realignment' takes place.
Old 16 March 2005, 11:02 PM
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GCollier
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Still waiting for your great realignment I see Unclebuck.

Have you actually sold your own house and living in rented at the moment praying for the fulfillment of this prophecy?
Old 16 March 2005, 11:02 PM
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Diesel
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Guys - where is 'here' when referring to sales in your area?

Personally I would prefer it if ALL house prices were reduced by 80% across the board! Imagine what you could do with your spare monthly 'interest payment' cash. We're all losers really!!! Still I really need to release that quarter mil - NOW!
Old 16 March 2005, 11:47 PM
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Vegescoob
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Originally Posted by Petem95
The market is dead - loads of houses available now, but not many buyers. First time buyers have generally been priced out, and buy-to-lets arent viable anymore. So theres nobody at the bottom of the chain, so nothing can sell. Looks like prices will either continue to slide as they have been doing since the end of last summer, or will crash.

Checkout www.housepricecrash.co.uk forum for more.

If youre a gambling man you could reduce youre price by a fair bit to attract interest, then if you manage to sell, rent for a bit - hoping the market falls significantly, then buy again when prices are lower (ie become an STR)
Thanks. A very interesting site.
Old 16 March 2005, 11:57 PM
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MattN
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Unclebuck,

It's good news as I bought it for xxxx and am selling for xxxx more than I paid for it, so i'm making money on it.
Old 17 March 2005, 07:34 AM
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D0ctorWho
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Housing market in the SE is already sliding.
I sold a property in Croydon for £245K at the height of the boom. There are now a bunch of flats in the same complex exactly same as the one I sold going for £220K. The only problem is they aren't selling even at that price.
Looking to London my friend can't get rid of her flat in Camden despite price drops every other week, 5 months and counting for her.
If these massive price drops in high demand areas aren't a tell tale sign what is?

When the prices do drop I'll be waiting with cash to exploit the market.
Old 17 March 2005, 08:14 AM
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Iwan
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Originally Posted by GCollier
Have you actually sold your own house and living in rented at the moment praying for the fulfillment of this prophecy?
Dunno about UB but I sold mine last year nd banked (most of) the money, I still think I made the right choice. I'm not married and don't have kids so I'm not bothered about owning bricks and mortar right now. I'm renting in a nice-ish area of Swindon, close to my work and local amenities. If I bought a house now on my own, it'd have to be in a really $hitty area with the prices as they are. I'd rather carry on renting for the moment than do that.

In my area houses are still selling, though the prices are coming down. The house 2 doors along from me (3 bed semi, garage, nice garden) has been up for sale for over 8 months. The original asking price was £160k ish, about 2 months ago they'd dropped it to £139k, it sold last week but I suspect it went for even less.

In the last 3 weeks I've seen at least 5 houses advertised and sold within days, but I know at least one of those was a BTL whose owner got cold feet and set a realistic/low asking price to bail out.

Interesting times ahead, my money is on at least a 5% to 10% drop (in my area) over the next year or two. I'm not counting on it for my future plans but it'd certainly help!
Old 17 March 2005, 12:03 PM
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chris's scooby
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Originally Posted by Diesel
Guys - where is 'here' when referring to sales in your area?
Sorry, i was talking about East Sussex, in and around Eastbourne.
Old 17 March 2005, 12:06 PM
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D0ctorWho
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Oddly enough travel 30 miles west from you Chris's scooby and the housing market is still falling in all sectors.
That is falling for those that can actually find a buyer.
Old 17 March 2005, 12:07 PM
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JoeyDeacon
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It's dead because people are still in the denial stage. They believe their house is worth what they are asking and that the value couldn't possible have fallen. It's only worth what someone is willing to pay so once they lower the price they will sell.

I am looking to move in the next year and I don't care if the value has fallen by £50K as long as the house I want to move into has fallen by a similar percentage.
Old 17 March 2005, 01:10 PM
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chris's scooby
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Originally Posted by D0ctorWho
Oddly enough travel 30 miles west from you Chris's scooby and the housing market is still falling in all sectors.
That is falling for those that can actually find a buyer.
Would that be Brighton and Hove?
Old 17 March 2005, 01:20 PM
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.........and further west. I know Eastbourne is a different market but I've been keeping a close eye on seafront property in Brighton/Worthing and as far as Bournemouth as I fancy a 'pied a terre' for my trips back to the UK.

Prices are on the downturn no doubt about it and property seems to hang around on the market like a fart in a lift.
Old 17 March 2005, 01:34 PM
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Diesel
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All a bit worrying really! Especially as I have an offer to let the house out this morning for £300pm over the mortgage (which is peanuts!). I think it worth doing so as I can spend a bit on on it to get it looking nicer when I try to sell again in 6months, and offset it all against tax.

Not what I wanted really - just wanted to sell and buy a family HOME rather than property speculate
Old 17 March 2005, 01:45 PM
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Of course if you go back a bit on the forum you'll find there isn't going to be a house price crash and prices will continue to rise ad infinitum until we all disappear up our own backsides like the fabulous Oozalum bird.

Can't wait to see all the "I'm in danger of being repo'd threads"- as ye sow shall ye reap.
Old 17 March 2005, 01:53 PM
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Diesel
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Originally Posted by D0ctorWho
Can't wait to see all the "I'm in danger of being repo'd threads"- as ye sow shall ye reap.
Dr Who - stick it up yer Tardis! I am selling a family home to get one where my work moved to - I hope you dont find that cynical!

The above is actually typical of the attitudes on that housecrash website - full of negative predictions from people who rent/live at home and are hoping for the best for them. Cant say I blame them too much however - house prices ARE as ridiculous as the monthly interest payments they entail.
Old 17 March 2005, 02:02 PM
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Iwan
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You could argue that it's just people starting to say "**** that, houses aren't worth the asking price" and starting to be realistic.

People need to balance what they earn against what they can realistically afford to spend/repay on a house. With prices rising there'll come a time when hardly anyone will be able to buy at all, particularly single people and first time buyers (I believe that time has just about arrived).

It's supply and demand, as soon as people decide enough is enough and stop paying crazy prices demand will drop, then the sellers will have to drop their expectations of what they think their house is worth if they want to sell.

That's when all the people who are morgaged up to the eyeballs (and have taken out First Plus or Ocean Finance loans secured on property) will be really screwed.

I don't see anything wrong in seeing the situation for what it is, and being prepared/ready to make the best of it when it happens. If some unfortunate souls house gets reposessed by the bank and I end up buying it then I won't feel guilty, it's not like I forced the previous owners to pay over the odds for something they couldn't afford in the first place.

Last edited by Iwan; 17 March 2005 at 02:08 PM.
Old 17 March 2005, 02:11 PM
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Anyone who bought at the top of the market is going to have big problems. Especially when rates start to rise after labour's 3rd term.

Diesel I'd start considering your rental options in the short term, both for your old place and new. That way when prices crash you'll actually find your mortgage payments will be similar to what they are now, you just won't owe such a large capital sum.

I've been having a good old laugh at the numptie who handed me 25K for nothing on the purchase of a poxy flat in Croydon. In 5 months the place has dropped that much in value, leaving me with the price of a reasonable car for doing 'nowt. Wonder what was going through his head when he bought? I was so sure I'd be stuck with the place I'd have taken the 220 then if it had been offered. I'd buy another one in the same block if I didn't think there was going to be at least another 25K coming off in the near future.


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