US Investors - Bull Market
13 January 2011, 08:11 AM
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US Investors - Bull Market
Could the next two years bring a bull market in the US.
Three key factors.
Reserves - banks have amassed over $1.1 trillion of non-regulatory reserves - money they have free to invest (although the US Treasury is looking to bribe them not to use it!)
Investment - global funds have over the past few months withdrawn $500bn from the BRIC economies and are investing it in the US.
It's the economy, stupid - Obama cannot get re-elected without the economy getting back on it's feet - so like all left wing politicians there will be a plenty of stimulus to get things going and make people 'feel good'.
The last time three factors like this came together there was a massive growth in the Dow Jones index.
Prepared to have this posted up again in two years time as either a laughing stock or wearing an I Told You So t-shirt
Three key factors.
Reserves - banks have amassed over $1.1 trillion of non-regulatory reserves - money they have free to invest (although the US Treasury is looking to bribe them not to use it!)
Investment - global funds have over the past few months withdrawn $500bn from the BRIC economies and are investing it in the US.
It's the economy, stupid - Obama cannot get re-elected without the economy getting back on it's feet - so like all left wing politicians there will be a plenty of stimulus to get things going and make people 'feel good'.
The last time three factors like this came together there was a massive growth in the Dow Jones index.
Prepared to have this posted up again in two years time as either a laughing stock or wearing an I Told You So t-shirt
13 January 2011, 08:22 AM
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13 January 2011, 08:29 AM
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You go to America - they think he is left wing.
Have you seen the vitriol (and the lawsuits) regarding his socialisation of healthcare?! That alone, in the context of American politics that hates socialism, makes him pretty left wing in my book.
As for Palin - words fail me!!!
Have you seen the vitriol (and the lawsuits) regarding his socialisation of healthcare?! That alone, in the context of American politics that hates socialism, makes him pretty left wing in my book.
As for Palin - words fail me!!!
13 January 2011, 10:26 AM
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Could the next two years bring a bull market in the US.
Three key factors.
Reserves - banks have amassed over $1.1 trillion of non-regulatory reserves - money they have free to invest (although the US Treasury is looking to bribe them not to use it!)
Investment - global funds have over the past few months withdrawn $500bn from the BRIC economies and are investing it in the US.
It's the economy, stupid - Obama cannot get re-elected without the economy getting back on it's feet - so like all left wing politicians there will be a plenty of stimulus to get things going and make people 'feel good'.
The last time three factors like this came together there was a massive growth in the Dow Jones index.
Prepared to have this posted up again in two years time as either a laughing stock or wearing an I Told You So t-shirt sipping Cristal 1999 Vintage from my yacht in the Bahamas
Three key factors.
Reserves - banks have amassed over $1.1 trillion of non-regulatory reserves - money they have free to invest (although the US Treasury is looking to bribe them not to use it!)
Investment - global funds have over the past few months withdrawn $500bn from the BRIC economies and are investing it in the US.
It's the economy, stupid - Obama cannot get re-elected without the economy getting back on it's feet - so like all left wing politicians there will be a plenty of stimulus to get things going and make people 'feel good'.
The last time three factors like this came together there was a massive growth in the Dow Jones index.
Prepared to have this posted up again in two years time as either a laughing stock or wearing an I Told You So t-shirt sipping Cristal 1999 Vintage from my yacht in the Bahamas
13 January 2011, 10:36 AM
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I have a brokerage account in the US. Only small - I will probably momentum trade as the DOW floats up. It can give accelerated gains.
FTSE lacks the key drivers
- the election driver over the next two years (indeed expect the UK to loosen the purse strings in two years time)
- European banks are currently MUCH more concerned about preserving capital reserve ratios
- there is not a similar $500bn global fund investment in Europe - and currently Euros are being absorbed by Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
FTSE lacks the key drivers
- the election driver over the next two years (indeed expect the UK to loosen the purse strings in two years time)
- European banks are currently MUCH more concerned about preserving capital reserve ratios
- there is not a similar $500bn global fund investment in Europe - and currently Euros are being absorbed by Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
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13 January 2011, 10:55 AM
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Trout, I'm sure you're right. The FTSE has still got to be worth sticking money in, over the other domestic alternatives savings wise? Or other UK equities outside of it. My portfolio now, with exception of one stock (that has advanced so much it isn't worth selling), only has stocks chosen with fairly conservative value standards... and even they've done very well this year - before reinvested dividends. Hopefully they'll continue to do so.
Do you reckon this is the next bubble they're blowing up then? (not that the last one was ever allowed to deflate.) Certainly sounds like it from what you've written.
Do you reckon this is the next bubble they're blowing up then? (not that the last one was ever allowed to deflate.) Certainly sounds like it from what you've written.
Last edited by GlesgaKiss; 13 January 2011 at 11:22 AM.
13 January 2011, 11:57 AM
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Trout, I'm sure you're right. The FTSE has still got to be worth sticking money in, over the other domestic alternatives savings wise? Or other UK equities outside of it. My portfolio now, with exception of one stock (that has advanced so much it isn't worth selling), only has stocks chosen with fairly conservative value standards... and even they've done very well this year - before reinvested dividends. Hopefully they'll continue to do so.
Do you reckon this is the next bubble they're blowing up then? (not that the last one was ever allowed to deflate.) Certainly sounds like it from what you've written.
Do you reckon this is the next bubble they're blowing up then? (not that the last one was ever allowed to deflate.) Certainly sounds like it from what you've written.
The worrying thing is that the last bubble didn't really burst - the leaks were plugged first. More than one observer is very concerned that within five years there will be a recurrence which would be fatal for many economies.
What needs to happen in the interim, for which there is no obvious solution, is that banks should be allowed to fail. The real problem is not too big to fail, it is Too Intertwined Too Fail.
13 January 2011, 12:01 PM
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13 January 2011, 12:14 PM
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The FTSE is at about 6030 currently. its doing very well compared to 12 mths ago, or the massive drop it had at election time for example. I think its about topped out- it might a pinch get a shade higher.
I've a fair bit invested on it and I can happily leave it for good, but I'm thinking of taking a little bit out, maybe about £7000 out. Do you reckon its about as high as it'll get. All the stuff I have been reading say its about at its height ?
Need to free a little cash up.
I've a fair bit invested on it and I can happily leave it for good, but I'm thinking of taking a little bit out, maybe about £7000 out. Do you reckon its about as high as it'll get. All the stuff I have been reading say its about at its height ?
Need to free a little cash up.
13 January 2011, 12:26 PM
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The fastest and longest inflation an asset at present surely has to be gold.
The worrying thing is that the last bubble didn't really burst - the leaks were plugged first. More than one observer is very concerned that within five years there will be a recurrence which would be fatal for many economies.
What needs to happen in the interim, for which there is no obvious solution, is that banks should be allowed to fail. The real problem is not too big to fail, it is Too Intertwined Too Fail.
The worrying thing is that the last bubble didn't really burst - the leaks were plugged first. More than one observer is very concerned that within five years there will be a recurrence which would be fatal for many economies.
What needs to happen in the interim, for which there is no obvious solution, is that banks should be allowed to fail. The real problem is not too big to fail, it is Too Intertwined Too Fail.
It's the easiest thing in the world to raise living standards (however temporarily) with policy/legislation... but it's not so readily accepted in the other direction.
02 February 2011, 07:43 AM
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I'm not sure if that means the economies will tank but I think the stock markets are at risj of a correction down.
Anyway it's interesting that the FTSE 100 is lower now then 10 years ago, so much for equities being perpetual high growth and paying for all our retirements!
Personally I'm virtually out of all equities and ETF's now as I save up the last 20% of what I need to buy a modest house in my area. My head says I should be playing the markets, but I'm within sight of a concrete goal now and it is making me more aware of what I could lose. So I'm all cash know or at least fixed rate bonds...it's fairly painful though with inflation.
I've only ever had minor success with investing anyway, and TBH I feel a lot was luck and know it could easily go the other way with me.
02 February 2011, 08:35 AM
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02 February 2011, 10:13 AM
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02 February 2011, 01:02 PM
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eerrrmm - for the non technical amongst us - whats an 'etf'
I'm guessing a *something* Tracking Fund - but thats a pure guess
I have ALL my investment/rainy day money in a FTSE tracker investment, which whilst horrifically painful 2 yrs ago, is now well back over what it lost.... (I'm trying not to think about the lost 2yrs
)
But I too am concerned that the FTSE is about as high as its gonna go for a while.
I'm guessing a *something* Tracking Fund - but thats a pure guess
I have ALL my investment/rainy day money in a FTSE tracker investment, which whilst horrifically painful 2 yrs ago, is now well back over what it lost.... (I'm trying not to think about the lost 2yrs
)But I too am concerned that the FTSE is about as high as its gonna go for a while.
02 February 2011, 02:01 PM
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It stands for exchange traded fund and is traded like a share. You can buy and sell at any time. You can get an etf that will allow you exposure to just about anything from worldwide equities to commodities etc.
Like your trackers the associated costs are low and iirc many are exempt from stamp duty.
Hth
Like your trackers the associated costs are low and iirc many are exempt from stamp duty.
Hth
02 February 2011, 08:46 PM
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Though etfs are traded like shares I think many are exempt from this stamp duty.
22 February 2011, 07:45 AM
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22 February 2011, 08:42 AM
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22 February 2011, 08:44 AM
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FTSE been rallying in a healthy up channel since July 2010, with an upside target of 6,600 ( well 6,588 if you want to be accurate), this middle east unrest means we now have to price in uncertainty on many levels, key levels to watch for support on the downside are 5900, 5835 and 5785 a move through these support levels would leave room for a move down to 5,600 which is circa 8.5% off y'day highs